Channeling TRUTHISALL. How the final Exit Poll was rigged!!! Rate it up.

[autorank]

Channeling TRUTHISALL.  How the final Exit Poll was rigged!!!

These are the facts from the Truth man.  It’s time.  The
debate is over.  The final National Exit Poll 12:22 a.m.
showing Kerry winning 51-48% was actually an underestimate.

Check out this and spread it around.  2006 is bearing down on
us and we need to get the TRUTH out or it will just be another
STOLEN ELECTION.

KERRY WON.  GET USED TO IT! ;)

==========================================================
TruthIsAll: 
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/BogusWeights.htm

Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) by 51-48%. In
the 2:05pm Final NEP, weights AND vote shares were adjusted to
MATCH the vote count. Bush won the Final, 51-48%. That the
Final NEP 43% Bush/37% Gore weights are MATHEMATICALLY
IMPOSSIBLE is beyond dispute.

Change to PLAUSIBLE weights in the Final and Kerry is the
51-48% winner - EVEN ASSUMING THE SAME VOTE SHARES. Therefore,
Kerry MUST HAVE DONE EVEN BETTER than 51-48%, since his
12:22AM vote shares were SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED in the Final.

To believe the Final NEP, you must also believe:

1) That 52.57mm (43% of 122.3mm), or 108% of the 48.7mm Bush
2000 voters still living, turned out in 2004 and so FOUR
million more voted than were alive.

IF we assume a PLAUSIBLE 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout of
46.25mm (37.83% of 122.3mm), THEN the Final NEP OVERSTATED the
turnout by 6.3 MILLION.
 
2) On the other hand, the NEP apparently UNDERSTATED Gore 2000
voter turnout. The 37% weighting means that 45.24mm voted in
2004, or 92% of the 49.2mm still living. Eight percent stayed
home? Unlikely.

IF we assume a PLAUSIBLE 95% Gore 2000 voter turnout of
46.75mm (38.24% of 122.3mm), THEN the Final NEP UNDERSTATED 
turnout by 1.5 MILLION.

___________________________________________________________________


FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
2:05PM, 13660 RESPONDENTS

HOW VOTED IN 2000
(Impossible 43%/37% weights)

BUSH WINS: 62.5-59.3mm (51.1%-48.5%)

Voted..2004............Vote Share..........Votes (mm)
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	20.79	17%	54%	45%	1%	11.22	9.35	0.21
Gore	45.24	37%	90%	10%	0%	40.72	4.52	0.00
Bush	52.57	43%	9%	91%	0%	4.73	47.84	0.00
Nader	3.67	3%	71%	21%	8%	2.60	0.77	0.29
								
Total 	122.27	100%	48.48%	51.11%	0.41%	59.28	62.49	0.50

_________________________________________________________________


FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
2:05PM, 13660 RESPONDENTS

HOW VOTED IN 2000
(Adjusted for plausible weights)

MAXIMUM WEIGHTS (100% turnout): 40.25% Gore/39.82% Bush
PLAUSIBLE WEIGHTS (95% turnout): 38.24% Gore/37.83% Bush
NO CHANGE in vote shares.

KERRY WINS: 62.6-59.2mm (51.2%-48.4%)

Voted..2004............Vote Share...........Votes (mm)
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	54%	45%	1%	14.16	11.80	0.26
Gore	46.75	38.24%	90%	10%	0%	42.08	4.68	0.00
Bush	46.25	37.83%	9%	91%	0%	4.16	42.09	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	51.17%	48.42%	0.41%	62.56	59.20	0.51

_________________________________________________________________
 
To analyze the NEP, start with the FACTS:
a) 2004 vote V2004 = 122.3mm 
b) 2000 vote V2000 = 104.8mm
c) U.S. annual death rate  = 0.87% (3.5% over four years)

Then we can proceed to:
1. Approximate the number of 2000 voters still alive in 2004.
   V2000A = V2000 * (1-.035)= 104.8*.965 = 101.1mm

2. Estimate the percentage of V2000A who voted in 2004.
   Assume PV2004 = 95%

3. Calculate the number of 2000 voters who turned out in 2004:

   V2K2004 = PV2004 * V2000A = 101.1 * .95 = 96.1mm

4. Calculate the number of 2004 voters who Did Not Vote in
2000. 
   DNV2000 = V2004 - V2K2004 = 122.3mm - 96.1mm = 26.2mm
   DNV2000 = NEW registered and OTHERS who did not vote in
2000.

5. Analyze the NEP time line:
   3:59pm: 8349 respondents 
   7:38pm: 11027 "
  12:22am: 13047 "

6. Calculate Kerry and Bush vote shares of DNV2000, Gore, Bush
and Nader. 

7. Calculate the national vote share: Kerry led 51-48% at each
time line.

8. The exit pollsters were left with a choice:
a) Tell the Truth: 
   Kerry won the National Exit Poll.
   The exit poll/vote discrepancy was BEYOND the 1% Margin of
Error.
   The numbers speak for themselves.

b) Change the weights and/or vote shares to MATCH THE VOTE
COUNT. 
    Even knowing that:
   -the weights were mathematically IMPOSSIBLE; 
   -the 3% vote discrepancy was TRIPLE the 1% MoE; 
   -the PROBABILITY of the discrepancy is 1 in 488 million.

9. The exit pollsters chose (b). 
They changed the weights AND the vote shares. 
The Final 2:05pm NEP of 13,660 respondents REVERSED the
12:22am NEP of 13,047 from Kerry 51-48% to Bush 51-48%.

10. The pollsters had an explanation for the discrepancy.
Well, sort of. 
It was due to Kerry voters responding at a 56/50 ratio to Bush
voters. The Reluctant Bush Responser (rBr.)

The weighted average exit poll response rate was 53%. Since
Bush won just 48% of exit poll responders, it implied that he
won more than 54% of the non-responding 47%. But there was a
problem. The rBr hypothesis was incompatible with the 43%
Bush/37% Gore weights. So the naysayers had to come up with
another explanation. 

11. The 43/37% weighting mix was due to "False
Recall".
FOUR MILLION Gore voters (8%) FORGOT THAT THEY VOTED FOR GORE.
THEY FORGOT JUST FOUR YEARS LATER.

So they told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush. 
And no, Bush 2000 voters DID NOT FORGET.
A ridiculous explanation, but it's a moot point. 

It doesn't MATTER who Gore or Bush voters SAID they voted for
or whether they forgot or lied.

Let's review the facts:
Fact 1: 43% of 122.3mm is 52.57mm. 
Fact 2: 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters were alive in 2004.
Fact 3: 48.7/122.3 = 39.8%. NOT 43%.
Fact 4: The Final Exit Poll inflated the Bush vote by 4
million. 

SO WHO THE EXIT POLL RESPONDENTS SAID THEY VOTED FOR IN 2000
IS IRRELEVANT. 
THE MAXIMUM NUMBER (MAX) OF 2000 VOTERS IN 2004 IS FIXED BY
THE FORMULA: 
MAX =  TOTAL VOTED IN 2000 - TOTAL DIED. 
NOTHING CAN CHANGE THAT FACT. 

THE 2000 VOTE COUNT IS INDEPENDENT OF 2004 EXIT POLL SAMPLING.

IT'S THE BASIS FOR DETERMINATION OF PLAUSIBLE EXIT POLL
"WEIGHTS".

PRELIMINARY "GROSS" WEIGHTS ARE BASED ON THE 2000
VOTE COUNT. THESE ARE "MAXIMUM" WEIGHTS WHICH CANNOT
BE EXCEEDED - BY DEFINITION.

TURNOUT PERCENTAGES OF GORE, BUSH AND NADER 2000 VOTERS MUST
BE ESTIMATED TO DETERMINE "NET" WEIGHTS FOR
CALCULATING NATIONAL VOTE SHARES. 



quere mas?

[kster]

1. Kick-n-Recommended.....nt

[lala_rawraw]

27. You realize that the network election

pool, a single source mind you, cannot cover this because in doing so, the network bosses would be implicated... I have an idea, but must find a good/free lawyer (joke, eh?) first. will keep you posted.

[rox63]

2. Back to the top

K&R!!!

[autorank]

3. I should have said "Get USED to it, Kerry won." Impeach Bush now!

Let the Restoration begin!!!!!

[rumpel]

4. I miss TIA...K&R

[EFerrari]

5. I'm posting this every two minutes because it shows plainly

the relationship between election reform and politics:

There are no dirty elections without dirty politics, and indeed as long as the politics are not clean, it is almost impossible to prevent the electoral process from becoming tainted. After all, rules work only if they are enforced. America is a country that thrives on ferocious competition -- the sink-or-swim ethic of capitalist adventurism, forever flirting with the fringes of the permissible -- and few competitive arenas are more cutthroat than elective politics. To believe that smooth elections are merely a question of updated machinery and proper procedure, as many election officials and mainstream media outlets appear to have done since 2000, is to slip deep into denial and self-delusion. The system functions not on the principle of the common good, but on how much its participants think they can get away with. There is nothing virginally pure about American democracy, and there never has been."

-- Andrew Gumbel

[bleever]

6. "Bush won" is in the same category as "2+2=5".

It's that simple.

K&R.

[chimpymustgo]

7. K & R. This level of "incompetence" will be one for the historians and

nt

[autorank]

8. ...and w'ere writing history in real-time. We'll get 'em...truth will out

[understandinglife]

9. K&R. Keep it in their faces until they finally get it.

Peace.

[Kurovski]

10. Kick.(nt)Recommended.

[stellanoir]

11. yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

for TIA's intrepid efforts. Too bad about the complete media blackout on this though.

[mom cat]

12. Tahnks for your persistant effort in this and of course, thanks to TIA!

[autorank]

13. mom cat, Thanks for your great efforts!!!1 DU "moms" are the GREATEST

:yourock:

[ClayZ]

14. K and R

:kick:

[nicknameless]

15. Another K&R

:kick:

[blue4barb]

16. k & r as many times as it takes to get the truth out.

[PDJane]

17. Another K & R......

because this resonates. This "feels" right in a way that a Bush victory never did.

Thank you.

[phoebe]

18. excellent job once again - thanks

n/t

[autorank]

20. Thanks and thanks in abstentia. Never surrender!

[Old and In the Way]

19. The numbers don't lie.

Just the liars that control the numbers.

[autorank]

21. "The numbers don't lie. Just the liars who control the numbers."

OUTSTANDING...a new motto from "Old and in the Way

[Cocoa]

22. truth from the cult leader in exile

[FULL_METAL_HAT]

23. I think TIA is great but if you think this is a cult you need a break! :^)

You can put away your sneakers and jumpsuit -- no comet's coming too soon!

What you _can_ do is check out your local election officials and take a look at getting involved to help never let this anti-democracy happen again!

[OnTheOtherHand]

26. I thought we would leave this thread content-free n/t

[Maraya1969]

24. I JUST SENT THAT LINK TO 60 MINUTES AND NOW REALIZE

There is no contact information for him!!!!! Why does his website not contain anything but one page and no contact?

Anyway, I think if this is sent to several media outlets such as 60 minutes, 48 Hours, Nightline....one of them might pick it up and it will gain a lot of coverage which is what we need.!

Anyone have someone to send this to.....please do. We need election fraud information out to the masses BEFORE the next election.

[In Truth We Trust]

25. In Truth We Trust: Paper ballots and Hand counts NOW!!! k&r