Kentucky Derby Trail: No Golden Rule

[two gun sid]

It is appearing with each race that Rule does not believe in doing unto others as he would have them do unto him. In fact, he treats others rather shabbily.

He either crushes them with a mighty blow, as he did in the Jean Lafitte last year, or he pretends to be vulnerable and then dashes any hopes of victory, as witnessed by his gutsy performances in the Boyd Gaming's Delta Jackpot (gr. III) and Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs.

So, who exactly is Rule and what might we expect of him in future combat against opponents superior to the ones he has been beating? After all, he has proven himself to this point to be rather one dimensional as a tactician. In his four career victories he has never had a horse in front of him. It reaches a point when that style becomes ingrained in a horse and it is difficult to get him to change. There is nothing wrong with wanting to be on the lead, and it can take you a long way on the Kentucky Derby trail. But those tactics normally turn around and bite you on the rump on the first Saturday in May, as there no doubt will be several zealous horses in the field that will be eyeballing you every step of the way.

This year, some of those zealous types might be from your own barn, as Todd Pletcher has a number of other top Derby hopefuls, like Super Saver, Eskendereya, and Colizeo, who want to be on or very close to the lead. Pletcher’s young horses normally don’t work super fast in the morning, but for whatever reason, they are intent to be right up on the pace in the afternoon. Eskendereya did not display that tendency in his three previous starts, but followed the pattern in his 3-year-old debut. He is one who definitely should break himself of that short-lived habit in his next start.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55410/kentucky-derby-trail-no-golden-rule

Looks like the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds this Saturday is going to be an exciting race. I'll post some PP's when I get them. I see Goldikova is coming back as a 5YO and will make her debut at Royal Ascot. Wow. What a year for the mares and fillies. Run like a girl!

[two gun sid]

1. Barbaro's brother, Lentenor, runs today at GP...

I was gonna give out a link to the video of the race but fucking MEC doesn't provide free live racing video. Fucking idiots. The racing industry really knows how to build a fan base.

[two gun sid]

4. Lentenor Upset by Doubles Partner

Lael Stable’s Lentenor, the full brother to Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Barbaro, was upset by WinStar Farms’ Doubles Partner in a 1 1/8-mile turf allowance at Gulfstream Park Feb. 17.

Sent off as the 9-10 favorite under John Velazquez, Lentenor raced just off the moderate pace set by Saint Eligius. Those two led the 11-horse field into deep stretch after getting the first three-quarters of a mile in a moderate 1:13.61.

As Lentenor and Saint Eligius engaged in a stretch duel, jockey Chris Decarlo took Doubles Partner to the rail and rode the colt strongly through a narrow hole to snag the victory at odds of 7-1 by a half-length. The final time of 1:48.41 was well off the course record of 1:44 2/5.

Lentenor, who was on the outside of the trio in the stretch battle, finished second, edging Saint Eligius by a neck.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55448/lentenor-upset-by-doubles-partner

[Kingofalldems]

5. Is that full brother?

[two gun sid]

6. Yep. He's a Dynaformer, too.

He had the lead deep stretch and the winner came up on his inside. Maybe he didn't see him until it was too late.

[two gun sid]

7. Lentenor - Gulfstream Park - $48,000 Allowance 2-17-2010

Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMBFywa3qwE

[two gun sid]

2. Risen Star analysis

Looks to be a fight between two horses: Drosselmeyer and Ron the Greek. Ron the Greek came from 16 lengths back to win going away in his last start, the Lecomte Stakes. Drosselmeyer won his last start and earned a big fig and most think he's the one to beat. Don't over look Stay Put, though. He's perfect on the dirt at Fair Grounds and he defeated the rest of the Risen Star field in those races. I like him here.

1. Stay Put
2. Drosselmeyer
3. Ron the Greek

[two gun sid]

3. Buddy's Saint Leads Deep Fountain of Youth

Led by Kingfield Stables’ Buddy's Saint, an all-star cast of 10 3-year-olds was drawn for the $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park Feb. 20.

A key prep for the March 20 Florida Derby (gr. I), the Fountain of Youth distance was moved up to nine furlongs this year after being run at one mile in 2009 when Quality Road romped by more than four lengths. The feature is one of four graded stakes on a Gulfstream card that also includes the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs.

With two and half months remaining until the first leg of the Triple Crown, Buddy’s Saint is one of the favorites for Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) thanks to decisive victories in a pair of graded stakes at Aqueduct as a juvenile—a 12-length romp in the Nashua (gr. II) and a 4 3/4-length score in the Remsen (gr. II). The son of Saint Liam—Tuzia, by Blushing John, was moved down to South Florida this winter and has been working steadily at Gulfstream for his 3-year-old debut. His last breeze came on Feb. 14 when he was clocked going six furlongs in 1:13.40.

“He worked really good, but didn't go super fast,” said trainer Bruce Levine. “He went 13 and change and I was really happy with it; just what I was looking for. He galloped out really good in 27 (seven furlongs). It wasn't super fast, but he couldn't work any better. We’re on schedule.”

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55443/buddys-saint-leads-deep-fountain-of-youth

My Picks
1. Buddy's Saint
2. Eskendereya
3. Aikenite

[two gun sid]

14. PP's for the Fountain of Youth...

Go to the link and scroll down to 'Positive Split' and click on 'Ultimate PP's'.

[two gun sid]

30. Video of the 2010 Risen Star

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42qifg3Pfmw

[trumad]

8. Was at Tampa Bay Downs yesterday and saw a very nice horse run and win...

Odysseus... Looks like they have him poised to run in the Tampa Bay Derby.

He crushed some classy horses in yesterday's race.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/February/17/Tampa-Bay-Derby-next-for-impressive-Odysseus.aspx

[two gun sid]

9. Glad you made it to the track....

I never went to Tampa Bay when I lived in FL. I should have. They are doing a good job and have a good product.

I'd love to see a Tampa horse win the Derby. A couple of years ago I saw a nice horse named Limehouse come out of there.

[trumad]

11. I love the Tampa track...

It's very folksy and relaxing--- super clean with many betting rooms, plenty of simulcast area's, and now Poker.

[two gun sid]

10. Don't miss the San Carlos (GII) at Santa Anita...

on Saturday. Bob Black Jack is entered. I don't know if he's gonna win this coming back from a lay-off but this guy can fly. He's a fun horse to watch and if he can get an uncontested lead, look out. If he's 3-1 or better, take a chance.

[two gun sid]

13. PP's for the San Carlos...

Go to this link and scroll down the page for the San Carlos. Go Bob Black Jack!!!

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

[bread_and_roses]

15. Yayyyy! A racing thread! BBJ is fun to watch

glad he's back. Though I think there's another horse in there I like too...can't think of name at the moment. Giant Oak and General Quarters are both running this weekend too - also horses I like. Great racing weekend!
(I "like" has nothing to do with wagering - they are just horses I have followed and enjoyed.)

[two gun sid]

17. Big win by Bob Black Jack!!!!

Lead gate to wire. Fought off Ventana in the stretch and found another gear. Ventana never gave up and finished 2nd. Great comeback win.

[bread_and_roses]

28. And he looked still full of beans in the gallop - out

at least to my eye. I like to see that.

[two gun sid]

19. General Quarters, beaten a neck, finishes 2nd. Giant Oak 3rd...

in the Mineshaft Handicap at Fair Grounds. Stonehouse was the winner. My Derby horse last year, Freisan Fire finishes 4th.

[bread_and_roses]

22. thanks, Sid. General Quarters may not win much, but he may be

a good money-maker over time. Glad to hear of BBJ's nice win too, especially in a come-back.

[two gun sid]

29. Video of 2010 San Carlos...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSv6C5LBwYY

[two gun sid]

37. Good photo of my new favorite horse, Bob Black Jack.

[two gun sid]

12. Risen Star Stakes Past Performances from BRISnet

Good Luck!!

http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf

[two gun sid]

18. Wow. That didn't go like I thought....

who the hell are the top 3 finishers? Discreetly Mine, Tempted to Tapit and Northern Giant?

[bread_and_roses]

16. Eskendereya over Jackson's Bend in Fountain of Youth

I like both of them, so was pleased enough. For Buddy's Saint fans, he evidently had a troubled trip - no video up yet at BH, but that's according to the story.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55497/eskendereya-spurts-away-in-fountain-of-youth

[Earth Bound Misfit]

20. Ahh, Racing. A former passion.

I gave it up after I let myself become consumed by the wagering end of the Biz, wrecked a marriage and all that, but oh how I used to love the Preps/Derby/Triple Crown trail, Saratoga in August and Belmont in the fall. I used to consider myself a pretty fair handicapper, but looking back now 11 yrs after my last bet I realize that I SUCKED at it. :shrug:

*Off Topic* Here's a shot of the greatest horse I ever had the pleasure to watch perform live (and likely my LAST WINNER lol):



What a magnificent animal.

Thanks for posting this thread, Sid. :thumbsup:

[bread_and_roses]

21. You saw him in person? How wonderful!

From photos, he sure looks as near-perfection as a horse could be. That Derby still gives me thrills, though goddess knows how many times I've watched the video. The sight of that mane flying down the outside....and the Preakness...and the Belmont. Not one of them not simply hair-raising in one way or another. Glad you had the luck to see him in person.

[Earth Bound Misfit]

23. Saw him twice.

I actually saw him LOSE in the Wood Memorial at Acqueduct in what was likely his worst performance, a dull 3rd to stablemate Angle Light with Sham 2nd. The second time I saw him, he set a World Record for 1 1/8 miles around one turn in the Marlboro Cup.

http://www.secretariat.com/races/marlborocup.htm

His electrifying move from last to first around the first turn in the Preakness is the most amazing move I've ever seen by a horse, even if it was on TV and not live.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEOlWDz2KBw

[two gun sid]

24. I've always felt his move on the first turn....

in the Preakness was the 2nd greatest thing I ever saw a horse do. The way those hind legs were pumping and the way he gobbled up ground was amazing.

Welcome to the DU Horse Racing threads. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the races.

[trumad]

25. Yep that Preakness was one of the best ever....

I found it even more impressive than the Belmont race.

[trumad]

26. The wagering put an end to my first marriage as well...

early eighties she finally up'ed and left me after I said--- uh---I left the rent back at the track.

I finally got it all together---- now when I hit the track--- I have a firm amount that I allow myself to lose and I stick with it. I've learned to space out my bets... per race...and it make it last the entire race card. The old day's--- I'd drop it all on the first couple of races and head back to the bank to get more. There were many day's that I'd drop 5 Benjamins on one race only to see it evaporate as my horse melted in the final furlong.

Today--- I still enjoy placing bets... but I enjoy watching the beauty of the sport most of all.

Oh don't get me wrong--- I still love coming out at the end with house money....

[trumad]

27. You tube of the Fountain of Youth

Eskendereya smoked the field.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3mWtDU-rig

Here's a write up in the local fish rap.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/z/fl-gulfstream-fountain-of-youth-horse-rac20100220,0,2153635.story

[Earth Bound Misfit]

34. I tried that.

You're stronger than I am. I made several attempts to "get it together" with a few addictive/compulsive behavior patterns in my lifetime. Coke, I dropped in a heartbeat, not so much as a toot in 26 years. Booze/beer/wine? I enjoy all socially or with a good meal, Not a prob.

Racing, or I should say wagering on racing? Not so much. The old patterns eventually re-emerge, albeit on a lesser scale. The wins were never big enough. The coulda/shoulda self beatings...etc. I'm glad that you've been able to beat those demons.


I still love coming out at the end with house money....

As a former casino dealer, I'll say this: Ain't no such thing. Even if you leave with "house money" it's just money that used to be yours to begin with and they'll get it back.......eventually.

[two gun sid]

31. 2010 Hutcheson Stakes

I was trying to remember this horses name. He was a very good 2YO and I liked him for the Derby at the time. Not sure if he's still being pointed to the Derby. D'Funnybone is him name and I think he's a good one. Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhVmBP9mFFs

[two gun sid]

32. 2010 Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn

Bob Baffert's Conveyance stays undefeated. This was his first try on the dirt and he did pretty well. Dublin was moving well at the finish, too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFOCsnyM0fg

[two gun sid]

33. Any of you railbirds on Facebook...

please consider joining the 'Elect Billy Turner to the Horse Racing Hall of Fame' group. We are working to get the only living trainer of a Triple Crown winner inducted. I don't need to remind you that Billy trained Seattle Slew to an undefeated record through the TC. No trainer ever did that. Not Sunny Jim. Not the Jones Boys. Please help out if you can. Mr. Turner is a living legend and it's a travesty that he has been inducted, yet.

[bread_and_roses]

35. Done (n/t)

[two gun sid]

36. Thanks b&r.

[two gun sid]

38. Almost forgot...

Gio Ponti, 2009 older horse of the year, returned last weekend at Tampa and loses by a head bob to Karelian.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDHXAij8EIk

[two gun sid]

39. Remember this name: Christine Daae.

3 YO Giant's Causeway filly. She's a good one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LDOAg386pA

[Justpat]

40. Giant's Causeway is having a huge year.

He is the sire of the leading colt and now this filly.

[two gun sid]

41. Have you seen her on the track yet?

I would like to know what you think of her if you have.

[Justpat]

42. No, I haven't seen her.

We are at Palm Meadows. Maybe she is at Gulfstream?

[trumad]

43. Is the horse a he or a she?

[two gun sid]

44. She's a filly...

trumad, she looks like a good one, too. Check her out.

There's been a lot of buzz about the horse you saw at Tampa. People are really liking him. Good call.

[trumad]

45. The Tampa Bay Derby race is March 13th...

And Odysseus will be in it...or so they say.

http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=44955

[two gun sid]

46. I hope he does go in The TB Derby...

I rewatched video of his last start and I like him. Are you going?

[trumad]

48. Thinking about it...

or I may youbet him ...

[two gun sid]

47. Don't wait for the Apple Blossom. The Davona Dale is this...

weekend and it has several Kentucky Oaks hopefuls in the field. Bickersons, who whipped 2YO champ, She Be Wild last out. Sassy Image, winner of the Pocahontas and two turn Golden Rod. And, of course, the flashy Christine Daae. It'll be a good one. I'll get PP's up as soon as I get them.

[two gun sid]

49. PP's for the Davona Dale

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/DaleRomans/ROMANS+DALE/9999/summary.htm

Click on the Sassy Image link that says 'Ultimate PPs'.