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Starting to get Breeders' Cup fever over here and even getting the chance to write up a story for the paper I work at (believe me, a nice change of pace, so to speak) ...
Here's my article rough draft (rather rough) that pretty much settles many, if not all, of my thoughts on the Saturday races at Churchill:
In a year when the specter of a hobbling, injured Barbaro so painfully soured the nation’s image of horse racing, now more than ever racing needs superstars to come forward on the track.
Today’s Breeders’ Cup run at Churchill Downs should give us a chance with a Classic showdown long awaited: the hard-knocking ex-claimer Lava Man versus the scintillating three-year-old sensation Bernardini.
Bernardini, you may or more likely may not recall, is the horse that won the day Barbaro went down in the Preakness Stakes. Since then, the Tom Albertrani steed hammered opponents in the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes, as well as the Jockey Club Gold Cup against his elders.
Each time, he’s cruised home easily -- barely asked for his best, winning by open lengths. Honestly, the dominance of a Secretariat is not far from what he’s shown, but Bernardini’s competition has been suspect into the late summer and fall.
His performances, though, evoke what the great thoroughbreds conjure: absolute awe.
Billed as an East Coast versus West Coast showdown, the Classic is also the test of Bernardini’s mettle and Lava Man’s ability to carry his form outside of California.
Lava Man, a five-year-old gelding whom, barring injury, we should see racing next year (unlike Bernardini, who’s likely for siren’s call and bank account of the breeding shed), has rattled off seven consecutive victories at speedball tracks like Santa Anita, Del Mar and Hollywood Park.
Like Bernardini, he’s a descendent of legendary Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, though his history is less illustrious than the Sheik Mohammed-owned adversary.
Claimed for $50,000 just two years ago, Lava Man has shown a gritty turn of foot at the final turn in this year’s races, a sign of his heart and determination. A true professional, he puts his head down low in the stretch and enjoys his victories.
He’ll need that heart today.
Bernardini is, according to the Beyer speed figure averages, several gears speedier, though the top figure between the two was reeled off by Lava Man last year.
Much will depend on how the pace unfolds. Expect Lava Man to be fairly close to the pacemaker if he’s not the one setting opening clips with Bernardini a few lengths behind.
The timing of their moves into Churchill’s famed stretch will make much of the difference, and though Bernardini could be the best three-year-old since Spectacular Bid, he hasn’t been challenged in the eyes by the likes of Lava Man.
History could be written by how he responds to or wilts against those eyes, and by how much stamina Lava Man has in the tank after a long and lucrative campaign this year.
Should those two falter or the race unfold unexpectedly, horses like the European shippers David Junior or, in particular, George Washington have a great chance with their class. Transferring that class to dirt will be the great question, but Euro horses like Sakhee and Giant’s Causeway have almost gotten it done in recent years.
Invasor, a four-year-old who ran in South America last year, is almost as fast as Bernardini, though time off may have compromised his readiness.
Lawyer Ron, who most recently finished second in the Super Derby down in Bossier City, La., and won the Arkansas Derby in the spring at Oaklawn Park, is entered under the guidance of new trainer Todd Pletcher. We’ll see if Pletcher’s multi-million dollar hands can get Lawyer Ron to relax.
Here are some other thoughts and conjectures (but not necessarily betting recommendations to follow) on the rest of today’s Breeders’ Cup card:
- Juvenile: Scat Daddy should be the post-time favorite, but it’s an out-of-the-stratosphere, late-running youngster like Circular Quay who’s the most fun. D. Wayne Lukas’ Pegasus Wind could surprise. This handicapper’s early Kentucky Derby horse -- named Nobiz Like Shobiz -- is wisely bypassing the race.
- Juvenile Fillies: Dreaming of Anna is undefeated and fast, while Cash Included also headlines a relatively lackluster bunch.
- Filly & Mare Turf: Ouija Board is a glorious, gutsy world traveler (go find a video Online of her Nassau Stakes win), but she could be beat by the newcomer Wait a While, who’s giving every indication she’s a super freak. Though less celebrated, Film Maker is always nipping at a win here.
- Sprint: The California invader Bordonaro has incredible speed and the younger Henny Hughes has show admirable consistency, but it might be a classy veteran like Pomeroy who steals this one.
- Mile: Aragorn has shown absolute dominance in the U.S. this year but there’s a strong European contingent led by Librettist, Araafa and Echo of Light. If she finds room for her whirlwind late run, Gorella is the pick here to barrel down the lane for a win.
- Distaff: A deep field without a standout, Round Pond looks like a good bet to improve in her third start back after a layoff. She won the Azeri Breeders’ Cup at Oaklawn earlier this year. Regional favorite Happy Ticket and her beautiful, big bold blaze has a win at Churchill this year, but she may be overmatched.
- Turf: Coming up a little thin this year, this endurance test on the turf is a bit surprising since the American horses may have an edge on the Europeans, though Hurricane Run will always be dangerous even if his form is falling. English Channel and Cacique could be ready for their best.
After a dramatic year in which Barbaro went from near-Triple Crown lock to the emergency room and then straight into the hearts of millions, these races and the Breeders’ Cup Classic Powered by Dodge should only provide more drama.
And that’s as it should be, if they all come home safe.
** What's your thoughts on the Breeders' Cup, folks? **
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