Derby Entries up

[turnpike]

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/April/30/kentucky-derby-entries.aspx



BB #16

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Pacesetters draw very late

You would think most of them will be stuck in outside posts. It could could really impact how the race unfolds:

13. Bob Black Jack (Migliore)

16. Big Brown (Desormeaux)

19. Recapturetheglory (Baird)

20. Gayego (Smith)

[Justpat]

2. This is the line up for the draw itself, not the entries.

sorry.

[Justpat]

3. Big Brown PP 20!

http://www.bloodhorse.com/article/44966.htm



Cool Coal Man #1

Eight Belles #5

[aaronbees]

4. Nice irony with Eight Belles

Better post position than she would've drawn in the Oaks.

Big Brown 20? Seriously? Can't quite figure Dutrow's choice there. Speed's on the outside (and to the inside of BB) ... goin' wide, UPS truck!

Colonel John in a sweet spot. Visionaire in the Barbaro post. I imagine Bob Black Jack will be able to gain the opening pace setting position.

Fascinating.

[Justpat]

5. I guess he is thinking that BB will not get in any trouble

way the hell out there. He can use his speed to secure a position on the outside
of the first group going into the clubhouse turn.

I can't help but hope Bob Black Jack gets part of it. He is an extraordinary
horse to go six furlongs in 1:06.3 in the Sunshine Millions, then come back
and finish second going 1 1/8 in the SA Derby. He must be made of steel.

[aaronbees]

6. I am rooting for Bob Black Jack too

I don't think he'll quite get the 1 1/4 miles but I'm rooting for that horse with heart. He's proven lots of people wrong this spring; that's sweet to see. Would love to see him get a good run here and a piece of the $$$.

Would be amazing if BB accomplished that without getting hung wide or shuffled back to the second group - tall order from out there but he has the length of the stretch. Makes me think of Stormello, though, last year being caught super wide.

Hey, I was just reading the "Left at the Gate" blog and then checked Equibase ... looks like someone had a good day at the track today. ;) (How'd Grasshopper look in the Westchester?)

[Justpat]

7. Yes, it was a great day for our stable.

we won the 4th, 5th, and 6th races.

I don't know how Grasshopper looked. We didn't stay for that one.
But I saw him the last few mornings and thought he looked pretty light.


Oh, BTW, the person Turnpike who posted this thread about the entries
is really my husband. I was on his computer and forgot I was logged on
under his name.

[bread_and_roses]

8. congrats on the wins! and I'm with you and arronbees on BBJ

I like him too - he's fun - which doesn't mean a betting interest, i don't bet. But then, I like BB, Pyro, and Gayego too...and Col Brown....I always like too many. I guess I'm hoping most for BB, though, for a win.

[Justpat]

9. thanks.

:) We hope to do this more often.



I'm still working on my picks. I'll have a better idea by Friday.

[two gun sid]

10. I'm a little pissed at YouBet...

I got online yesterday to check entries for my horses and my notifications didn't have a thing about turnpike having any horses in today. I checked it tonite and they are there. WTF?

Sorry I missed them and congratulations, again!!!

*on edit* I wanted to bet one of those horses. Damn it! I'm taking a Vicodin and going to bed.

[Justpat]

11. Equibase is better for getting entries and workouts.

Go to http://www.equibase.com and click on Virtual Stable. You have to sign up but
it doesn't cost anything. Then you can add horses to your stable and check whether
you want to receive entries and workouts.

[two gun sid]

12. You know, I think I still have a Virtual Stable there...

from several years ago. I've been using YouBet cause it's one stop shopping and has always been good up 'til yesterday. I guess I'll have go to equibase and update my e-mail addy and stable. I think I still have Sir Barton in my stable. LOL.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Congrats on the three wins

LOL. I was planning to welcome turnpike. It seemed very odd that a specialized thread like this was started by a first time poster. :)

DU must have changed the rules. I remember when I joined in fall 2002 I authored a lengthy analysis of the upcoming midterms, after about 5 posts, but the software spit it out, saying I needed at least 10 posts to initiate a thread. At that point we didn't have a Sports forum and I didn't know about the Lounge, where 5 posts could be winged within minutes.

Anyway, a tough race just got tougher. I looked it up and only two Derby winners have started from post 17 or further outside -- Clyde Van Dusen (1929) from #20, and Gato del Sol (1982) at #18. Plenty from #15 or #16 lately but that's hardly equivalent.

The one I remember slinging from the outside was Swale at #15 in 1984. That was a weak field with the filly entry favored so perhaps Big Brown can take advantage of what appears to a less than stellar group.

I looked for matchups tonight but couldn't find them yet. The books are more and more cautious in that regard.

[a kennedy]

14. I've got my winners......

Eight Belles, Denis of Cork, and Z Fortune, read em and weep, ooops wrong wager, that's more for poker.......well, never the less, I'll be rooting for the filly, the Irish man and a gray horse. :toast: :bounce: :thumbsup: :woohoo: :applause:

[Justpat]

15. That sounds about as good as anything I can come up with at this moment.

I believe Eight Belles is gray also.

[a kennedy]

16. A Filly plus a gray??

:woohoo: :applause: That's a for sure win then.... :hi:

[aaronbees]

17. Anyone have an Oaks pick(s)?

I like Pure Clan. Gonna root for the Hot Springs man Holthus and his filly. I think she'll have a nice style for this race and her Churchill wins are in her favor.

Pure Clan, Bsharpsonata, Proud Spell trifecta.

Oh, and welcome to Turnpike ... even if that is OB posting incognito by accident. :D Nice to know we're being watched by MrOB.

[Justpat]

18. Mr. OB will stick his head in here one of these days.

I'm watching the ESPN show now.

I'm going with my rider, Rajiv Maragh on Little Belle.

[Justpat]

19. Proud Spell won easy. n/t

[two gun sid]

20. Your rider did pretty good too...

on a sadder note I see Frank Whiteley has passed away.

[aaronbees]

25. Bittersweet day

with his passing and what happened to Chelokee. Whiteley was a master: Ruffian, Damascus, Forego. Such stories to tell.

Nice win by Proud Spell - she's a special little filly and (on accomplishments) tops in her class so far. I'm hoping for her stablemate Eight Belles to run a nice one tomorrow.

[two gun sid]

34. Chelokee update: no fracture

Dislocated ankle.

http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=32312

[two gun sid]

48. Chelokee update: surgery went well

according to Doc Bramlage.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/article/45063.htm

[two gun sid]

21. My picks....

1. Colonel John
2. Cool Coal Man
3. Court Vision

For what it's worth: Big Brown will run with front wraps tomorrow to prevent burning.

[Justpat]

22. My picks if it is wet.

Tale of Ekati
Z Fortune
Pyro

Tale of Ekati beat a broken down horse in the Wood, but he likes a wet track and I can't
like any of the others more. He should get the distance.



It if is dry:
Pyro
Colonial John
Z Fortune



Maybe I'll be excited about this tomorrow.


Frank Whiteley was a cranky sonofagun, but an exceptional horseman.
He taught a lot of people how to be a horseman also and not just a
trainer who could read the condition book.

[two gun sid]

23. Is David Whiteley still training?

I read that Shug worked for Mr. Whiteley also. I didn't know that.

[Justpat]

31. I don't know if he still trains.

In the form it said that he lives in SC, so I doubt it.

He wasn't terribly successful on his own and basically went
back to SC over a decade ago.

[two gun sid]

33. Thanks. I hadn't heard anything about him in ages...

seems like he had a couple of nice runners in the early '80's but, I was in the service then and wasn't able to follow racing much.

[aaronbees]

24. My picks

Colonel John for the win.
2 - Eight Belles
3 - Denis of Cork
4 - Big Brown
5 - Pyro

There's my "Super Hi-5."

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Kentucky Derby matchups

These from one major offshore book. Most are head to head but near the end they ask you to pick the winner among three.

Minus is the favorite plus the underdog. For example, Big Brown at -180 is bet 180 to win 100, or any fraction or multiple, like 36 to win 20. Colonel John is +150 or bet 100 to win 150.

I haven't ventured yet, and may not. I was intent on wagering against War Pass in matchups and once that opportunity was lost it's too much of a blur and I'm not really enthused about anything, since I didn't follow as closely this year.

134th Kentucky Derby May 3, 2008 - Matchups

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Big Brown vs Pyro
301 Big Brown -200
302 Pyro +170

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Colonel John vs Tale of Ekati
303 Colonel John -250
304 Tale of Ekati +210

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Big Brown vs Colonel John
305 Big Brown -180
306 Colonel John +150

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Smooth Air vs Tale of Ekati
307 Smooth Air -110
308 Tale of Ekati -110

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Z Fortune vs Z Humor
309 Z Fortune -190
310 Z Humor +160

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Cool Coal Man vs Cowboy Cal
313 Cool Coal Man -125
314 Cowboy Cal +100

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Adriano vs Denis of Cork
315 Adriano +120
316 Denis of Cork -150

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Smooth Air vs Bob Black Jack
317 Smooth Air -130
318 Bob Black Jack +100

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Gayego vs Monba
319 Gayego -115
320 Monba -110

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Visionaire vs Big Truck
321 Visionaire -170
322 Big Truck +140

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Big Brown vs Pyro vs Colonel John
323 Big Brown +115
324 Pyro +205
325 Colonel John +185

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Cool Coal Man vs Cowboy Cal vs Big Truck
327 Cool Coal Man +165
328 Cowboy Cal +165
329 Big Truck +175

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Gayego vs Monba vs Court Vision
331 Gayego +175
332 Monba +175
333 Court Vision +165

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Smooth Air vs Bob Black Jack vs Tale of Ekati
335 Smooth Air +185
336 Bob Black Jack +185
337 Tale of Ekati +145

5/3/2008 3:00 PM Z Humor vs Visionaire vs Denis of Cork
339 Z Humor +205
340 Visionaire +145
341 Denis of Cork +185

[Awsi Dooger]

27. What the heck, I'll pick Big Brown and Pyro

Big Brown's not worth a wager at that price but some of the historical factors may be overblown. It looks like Big Brown and Bob Black Jack want the pace but Bob Black Jack won't be suicidal with Sunshine Millions-type fractions. That could allow Big Brown to settle on or near the front with a less than killer pace. And the Derby isn't as atypical without a wall of horses in front of you. Big Brown may not know the difference.

Pyro also makes sense, other than requiring racing luck from back in the pack. He's got the historical blueprint working for him, excellence at 2 carried over to 3, other than that polytrack outing. I don't like to overreact to recency. Pyro has demonstrated more ability than anyone else in the field, with the possible exception of Big Brown.

[trumad]

28. Drank the Kool-Aid I see......

You're right about the price.... at one time I thought we'd get a great price. I'm dropping a chunk on BB's nose with hopes of a couple of hundred on return. Then again, BB may get caught up in the traffic and fade like many a favorite has at the place with the twin spires.

[Justpat]

29. Who knows if BBJ will even like the dirt?

I am going to do a pin the tail on the donkey type betting pick later.
This year it seems the right thing to do.

I'll say that BB will take the pipe at the three sixteenth pole as his
feet will have had enough of the sealed or hard track, then Colonial
John, Pyro and Z Fortune will fight it out to the wire.

[turnpike]

30. Monba and Adriano

Unless Big Brown is a genuine horse, it will be a stayers race. The pace going into the
clubhouse turn will be hot and will set up for a closer this year.

[two gun sid]

32. Adriano is an interesting horse...

a lot of the track wiseguys are picking him. And I think you're right: Big Brown has some real speed to the inside of him and it ought to be a drag race to the first turn.

Welcome to DU, turnpike. I look forward to your analysis and insight. Racing is the hardest but coolest game in the world.

[two gun sid]

35. Riders Up!

Let's rock.

[Justpat]

36. BB by five.

I'm a believer.

[aaronbees]

40. Me too ... monster race

Not sure I care though.

[two gun sid]

37. Damn. Just Damn.

poor Eight Belles.

[Justpat]

38. damn it. n/t

[aaronbees]

39. sums it up for me

She ran her heart out. Damn it.

[LWolf]

41. What a gallant race she ran.

:cry:

[TZ]

42. That was very sad..

The vet said he had NEVER seen a horse break both front ankles like that.

[two gun sid]

43. It's very sad, Sue...

She was such a big strong filly and a horse with a lot of heart. The loss of Eight Belles ruins any enjoyment I could have gotten out of Big Brown's fantastic win.

[TZ]

44. Yeah reminds me of the Preakness and Barbaro...

Bernardini had such a great run but I could NOT appreciate it.

[two gun sid]

46. We lose fans everytime something like this happens...

And I don't really blame the casual fan for their anger.

[aaronbees]

47. In the last two big televised races in the US....

George Washington went down in the Classic and now Eight Belles in the Derby. Then add Pine Island, and add Barbaro (and the breakdown of Chelokee, the winner of the freakin' Barbaro Stakes on Friday, Oaks day) and racing's got some bad karma building up. Just no other way for me to see it now.

I don't blame those casual fans either ... even when I think some of the judgements coming down on racing are misguided and uninformed (see the GD and Lounge threads). Changes need to happen at many levels of the game or this sport is gonna die.

[elleng]

45. Missed news on tv;

have been smiling after seeing her fabulous run!

[two gun sid]

49. Stakes Results between the Derby and Preakness

From BloodhorseNOW.com:
Jim Murray Memorial H. (gr. II)

HOLLYWOOD PARK, 5/10, Race 3, $250,000g ($5,000), STK, 3 yo's & up, One And One Half Miles (Turf), 2:27.36, FM

1 – On the Acorn (GB), 116, (Inchinor (GB)–Amarice (GB), by Suave Dancer), $150,000, B–Mrs S. O'Brien (GB), O–Indizguys Stable, T–Mike R. Mitchell, J–Brice Blanc. Lifetime Record: 31-7-3-4, $593,812. ($17,909 Y '02 TATOCT).
2 – Champs Elysees (GB), 119, (Danehill–Hasili (IRE), by Kahyasi (IRE)), $50,000, B–Juddmonte Farms Inc (GB), O–Juddmonte Farms, T–Robert J. Frankel, J–Ramon A. Dominguez. Lifetime Record: 14-3-5-4, $520,647.
3 – Sudan (IRE), 116, (Peintre Celebre–Sarabande, by Woodman), $30,000, B–Dayton Investments Ltd. (IRE), O–Gary A. Tanaka, T–Robert J. Frankel, J–Jose Valdivia, Jr.. Lifetime Record: 13-2-2-3, $361,323.

Margins: nose, 6, 12½. Others: Boule d'Or (IRE) ($15,000), Church Service (KY).

http://www.bloodhorse.com/NOW/Racing/Results/Default.aspx?w_id=BH_RaceResults

Cool site and easy to use to get the latest results. On The Acorn wins, El Gato Malo wins and Casino Drive gets a big win in The Peter Pan. Woody Stephens used to use the Peter Pan as a prep for his Belmont starters. Always worked out pretty well for him. Look out for Casino Drive, Big Brown!

Better Than Honor Broodmare of the Year?