New poll shows PROP 8 tightening in CA! 3% now... (10/17)

[FreeState]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d4fd538-5834-4c18-98c8-6e58da254976

California Prop 8 Remains a Fierce Fight That Could Be Decided Either Way By Handful of Votes: In a vote today, 10/17/08, on California's Proposition 8 Ballot Initiative, which would change California's constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry, approximately half the state supports the measure, half the state opposes the measure, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. The exact findings are: 'Yes' (to change the law) 48%, 'No' (to leave the law alone) 45%. But: polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business, so SurveyUSA urges all who examine these results to not put too fine a point on the 3 points that separate "Yes" and "No" today. In 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls over the past month, Proposition 8 has been fiercely fought, and effectively even, all 3 times. "No" nominally led by 5 points on 09/25/08. "Yes" nominally led by 5 points on 10/06/08. The movement from 10/06/08 to today is not necessarily statistically significant.

What remains clear today: Those in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley continue to want the law changed. Those in the Bay Area continue to want the law left alone. Those in greater LA remain split. Men, seniors, gun owners, the less well educated and the more religious, support 8. Women, Democrats, liberals and Pro-Choice voters oppose. Young voters, upper-income voters, white voters, moderates and Independents split. There is no meaningful difference between how those who have already voted, and those who promise SurveyUSA they will, see the measure.

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EDIT to add age break - thats what threw it last time - it was 54% of young voters FOR 8 - not any more! No is winning in every category except 65+ time to call your grandparents and parents!


18-34 Yes 44% No 46%
35-49 Yes 47% No 46%
50-64 Yes 46% No 50%
65+ Yes 57% No 35%

[Semi_subversive]

1. I want to know where the No on 8 ads are

All I hear and see locally is Yes on 8, especially the one with Gavin Newsom. And the lies that professor is spewing makes me want to vomit. Are they waiting for the final stretch?

[stopbush]

2. No on 8 ads have been hitting the airwaves in LA & OC this week.

Lots of TV spots here in OC.

[FreeState]

3. Same with San Diego - all over the place (night time TV 9pm -2am) + Radio too! n/t

[Irishonly]

9. The Inland Valley Is Saturated

There's another one with a little girl announcing to her mom that she can marry a princess. Then they use an ed code about reading books to primary aged children to say children will be taught about gay marriage. They imply parents will have no control because of a judgment made in MA. I have to mute the TV these days because my dogs think they are in trouble with me yelling.

[AntiFascist]

4. Every single time I watch Rachel Maddow...

there's ALWAYS a Yes on 8 commercial. Irony anyone?

[FreeState]

5. Maybe we should email her and let her know so she can give the noon8 web address out LOL :)

[davidinalameda]

6. great idea

[ruggerson]

7. Look at the white vs the black demo

African Americans overwhelmingly are in favor of Prop 8. What the fuck is this shit? We need John Lewis or Peter Gomes to go from church to church and change minds.

White 48Y/47N
Black 58Y/38N
Hispanic 47Y/41N
Asian 42Y/48N

[LonePirate]

8. I spent the past week in LA - more No than Yes ads on TV

I sure hope the trend continues where initiatives lose support as the election drawns near. I saw far more No ads than I did Yes ads this past week; but the entire campaign seems subdued. Since Obama will carry CA by at least 15-20 points, hopefully he will have enough coattails to push the No on 8 vote to at least 50.1%.

[beac]

10. *** MATCHING FUND CAMPAIGN through Sunday ******

FYI, NoOnProp8 ( http://www.noonprop8.com / ) has a matching fund campaign through today (Sunday) that will DOUBLE any contribution made:

https://secure.ga4.org/01/unfair