U.S. News '08 Horse Race Gossip does NOT include Kerry

[beachmom]

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/whispers/articles/060626/26whisplead.htm

Three for 2008: Hill, Russ, and Mark

We know, we know, the race for the White House is a long way off. But there is already a growing buzz on the Democratic side that there are just three worthy candidates likely to end up in a pitted primary battle starting in 19 months: New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold, and one-term ex-Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. Here's the 411 from a top Democratic maven: Clinton is the, well, elephant in the room, the "uber" candidate; Warner gets the mainstream moderates; and progressive Feingold is attractive to the activists who seem to be taking over the party.

Kos, now the big celebrity that he is, is diplomatic and mentions everyone else:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/19/14253/6791

Seems about spot-on for the early call. Can Clark, Edwards, Richardson, and/or Kerry muscle into this group of "relevant" candidates? That'll be the big question. None of the other contenders will have much oxygen (i.e. buzz and money) to work with (Dodd, Daschle, Bayh, Biden, and Vilsack).

I comment on this mini-thread here:

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2006/6/19/14253/6791/130#c130

Chris Bowers at MyDD chimes in:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/6/19/14145/8824

I am not going to disagree that some candidates who are running seem highly unlikely to gain real traction. Bayh, Biden, Daschle, Dodd and Vilsack all seem to be trying to compete with Hillary Clinton on the same terms as Hillary Clinton. That is not going to work. You simply are not going to defeat Clinton by trying to be Clinton through soaking up party support and large donors (see my post on this from last year). In a different vein, I also have a very difficult time seeing Kerry as viable again. He has done virtually everything right over the last eight or nine months, and yet he still does not seem to be gaining any traction.

However, I can still see paths for people other than Clinton, Warner and Feingold. Edwards is the most obvious--he is actually leading the only Iowa poll and has the highest favorable ratings of anyone making serious noise about running (both offline and online). This is not even to mention that unlike just about everyone else, he has a real narrative--two Americas--through which he can articulate his political philosophy and his policies.

Also, with a new western state caucus before New Hampshire, rising Latino political power, and connections running deep in the party throughout the country, I think it would be foolish to discount Bill Richardson. General Clark probably still has a chance too.

This is not even to mention two Democrats who are not currently making much noise about running: Barack Obama and Al Gore. In the netroots poll and Dailykos fantasy polls, Gore soars about the other twelve contenders. When it comes to the junior Senator from Illinois, Obama is the most popular Democrat in the nation by far, even more popular than McCain. A rock star like that can never be overlooked.

Look, we're all trying here, but one cannot deny that the "netroots" are largely backing other candidates. We're in the minority. How can we change this? I really want Kerry for prez, but I don't see how we get from A (wanting him to be prez) to B (him actually BEING prez). I can't come up with a scenario, where he either gets the nomination or wins the general. All the forces that be (including the netroots) seem poised against him. I'm not being all negative here -- I'm just looking around, and in 2006 this is what I'm seeing.

[Mass]

1. Remember than in 2003, we were asking the same question.

That US News and mydd do not include Kerry certainly do not make this an impossible proposition. (and we are talking about two blogs that hate Kerry more than kos).

Kerry has a lot of advantages: name recognition, experience of another race, money, experience, and, with the exception of Gore (who will not run), he is the only one who has all that + many faithful supporters (who do not necessarily blog).

[fedupinBushcountry]

5. Exactly

Hang in there Beachmom. As an early blogger on the Kerry blog we fought this mentality from the get go, and I tell you, polls and talk like this never stopped us from keeping up the good fight.

[Blaukraut]

2. Don't despair, beachmom

We have a long way to go, this is true, but there is time yet. And remember who was the netroots' darling in '04? That didn't pan out too well, did it?
JK has something the others don't have; a 3 million-strong e-mail list upon which he can build, and a fast-growing online support base. Plus, he is growing in esteem every day. He has done brilliantly well in the last year, and not one misstep to be found anywhere. Take heart, keep fighting, and don't give up :-)

[beachmom]

3. Thanks, guys!! Oh -- no way am I giving up.

In fact, I'm still commenting on that Kos thread, and felt I got some good points in. I like that I don't know the person who made the original positive comment about Kerry. There are definitely others who like Kerry, but just not as much as all the other candidates.

I was just trying to give an honest assessment (even if it's wrong) of what I'm sensing. Of course, EVERYTHING can change, but I haven't seen a huge movement yet.

But I won't give up until the fat lady sings, I can tell you that.

[sandnsea]

4. The Seasoned Warrior

All it'll take is finding something that resonates with Iowa that only Kerry can bring. In 2003, it was don't send a message, send a President. It was clear Kerry was the only one ready to take over from day one. We just have to roll that message into one that will appeal in 08, something that turns the 04 race into a good thing. Kerry is seasoned, has firmly answered all the attacks, and has proven that he was right in 04 and is the only one who can handle the mess we're going to have in 08.

[blm]

6. Fact" Not one of those mentioned can outdebate Kerry. And none

of them has their chops down the way Kerry has. And I saw the exact same thing in 2003 - and I used to battle MyDD here all the time, and I was right then and I am right now.

[TayTay]

7. I agree and stil think that nobody knows anything.

At this point in 2002, I believe the taller Senator from Massachusetts had 4% of the vote nationwide. There are so many factors that have yet to come into play. The team that put Bill Clinton into the White House will coalesce around Sen. Clinton. Washington DC loves that. Remember, they did win the WH, 10 and 14 years ago. Things have changed, their tactics have not.

There are peole who will not run who are mentioned now. They will not have the money or will to really run. It's so early that everyone still looks good at this point. A year from now, it will be a very different picture.

I believe that one of the most telling things about the whole race is that indefinable, but I know it when I see it, will to run. The race usually goes to the person who wants it the most. That should make this really interesting as I can see 3 or 4 people who shows signs of really wanting it. Time will tell. Kerry is in a better position than he was a year ago. That much I know is true. The rest is all conjecture and speculation.

[Island Blue]

8. I kind of like the idea that he's flying under the media's radar ...

in broad daylight. Let the media concentrate their efforts on talking about other people. Meanwhile, John Kerry continues to do brilliant work in the Senate and consistently draws enthusiastic crowds whenever and wherever he speaks.

[demdiva]

14. yep ...I agree

Hillary will be old news by 2007 (if she isn't already), just like Dean became old news really quick in 2003/2004

[karynnj]

9. You wonder what the author's agenda is

Neither Warner or Feingold are polling all that high. This may be name recognition to some degree - though Warner has gotten a large amount of media. Hillary is clearly still the front runner, but there are huge cracks showing. Like Tay Tay said she will also inherit Clinton's team.

This team is a mixed blessing - if that. Look at the advice that they and Bill gave Kerry, that they beat him up for not taking. 1) Keep talking about the economy 2) Endorse the gay bashing amendments (good idea for a genuinely principled candidate who has consistently stood up for all civil rights?) HilLary can have them. Whose that nice guy who will be running the Democratic Gov campaign in MA?

Although the polls will likely change - at this point it's silly to rule out Kerry or Edwards. If Gore decides to run by the end of the year that would be good too. Of these 3, the only one very likely to have enough money is Kerry. Kerry has done a lot to improve his chances since last year. Feingold will have enough only if he becomes the netroot choice. Kerry's best chance is if Gore and Feingold both back out. (Warner and Edwards are very inexperienced next to Kerry.)

[TayTay]

10. I do think that 'filthy lucre' will have a lot to do with it.

It always does. Sigh! And I keep coming back to the pol who raised $400,000 in money for other candidates in about 2 days. I don't think that person should be crossed out. Especially since that was $400,000 in small donations.That's a lot of people checking in and keeping tabs on what Sen. Kerry is doing and asking his own base to do.

[wisteria]

11. Personally, I don't care much about most of the netroots.

Kerry is popular enough. He has us and he has his e-mail list. He seems to have no trouble now attracting some attention and raising money. Kos and Mydd-who cares? These guys represent the angry unstructured mob mentality part of the party. I would worry if he was too popular with these types. Remember, there are a lot of other voters out there besides Kos and Mydd types and even us. Look at Kennedy, Hart and Hyden, they all support him. I think we can only count on so much support from the netroots.

Oh, and US News and World Report never had anything good to say about Kerry even in 2004. This is not to say we shouldn't try and change there minds, but that this latest news is no surprise to me.

I have also noticed a push for the DLC type candidates recently.

I think Kerry is out making a name for himself right now. In the end, I feel he will prevail. He has the passion, not just the money too run on. In the meantime, I continue to support him by word of mouth and defending him against unfair attacks.

[ProSense]

12. One thing about some of the blogs

They have had no input into the Iraq debate. Some of them barely mention the withdrawal plans, mostly because a few have put Kerry on ignore. Kos has become devoid of any significant input (the Hillary and Warner supporters reign in certain quarters. Whatever! The rest of the country is carrying on a vigorous debate without them. Of course, Kerry definitely kept it alive!

[JI7]

13. it doesn't matter the amount of netroot support

what matters is the type of netroot support. looking back i think Kerry's bloggers were far more effective in turning out the vote than others. i remember reading the reports from the few Kerry supporters online about what was going on in Iowa, NH and other places. on the ground, not just internetland. Kerry losing all online polls while those who did support him continued to work hard on the ground for him.