Will November really be that bad?

[zipplewrath]

I've been one that has suggested on more than one occasion that the fall elections will not go well for the democrats. However, recently, especially with the coming "debate" on the banking reform legislation, I'm really beginning to wonder.

I had been concerned that all the wheeling and dealing on the Health Insurance Stimulus Package had been effectively the "bridge to nowhere" moment for the Democrats. Between that, and passing marginally popular stimulus packages and bailouts, I figured that the democrats had been successful and killing their momentum of the 2008 elections.

But holy bajeezus, I've never seen a GOP that could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like this bunch. Scott Brown is now the devil incarnate. Charlie Crist is losing big time in Florida to a rookie. McCain is fighting for survival in Arizona. Jindal is just so much road kill after a SINGLE misstep. The titular "heads" of their party are folks like McConnell, Rush, and Beck. This is the party that should be capitalizing on the democrats problems, and instead they're holding "tea parties". Those "parties" scare the heck out of anyone that isn't white, male, and upper middle class. I mean, I work with a whole bunch-o-serious right wingers, and even they roll their eyes while still trying to be sympathetic to the tea party folks. There is a fiscal scandal in Florida, and the national party is run by a guy that can't seem to keep track of the money. This is a rudderless party that is being "run" by some of the most clueless folks in politics. The signature GOP issue for the year is going to be the Arizona immigration law that has CONSERVATIVES saying it's a bad idea. Ya gotta figure it's bad when Rove decides he needs to form a new organization to COMPETE with the RNC for campaign cash.

I'm having a hard time being all that concerned about November. About the only thing that really concerns me is, well,....

The Democratic Party is about the only organization that could screw up an opportunity like this. I sure wish Dean was still in charge. I'm not all that convinced that the DNC, DLC, DSCC, or the DCCC really knows how to handle such an opportunity. Really, I suspect that if someone asked Dean, he'd advise Reid, Pelosi and company to basically ignore the GOP and advertise that they weren't going to bother with that party until they invited some adults to join the GOP. I plaster ads with the most moronic of Tea Party signs, and a few images from the strip club, and suggest that until the GOP could figure out how to handle their own affairs, the Democrats would have to actually govern this country. And if the American people wanted to continue the economic improvements they have seen over the last 2 years however slight they might think they are, they'd be better off at least leaving the adults in charge for now.

[liberal N proud]

1. The M$M is doing everything in their power to insure it does

They are going to tell everyone from now until November how bad the government is treating them and that the Democrats are the government and how they are going to get beat badly in November.

The question remains if the voters will buy the bullshit.

[zipplewrath]

2. It's why races have to be kept local in some ways

In the end, you make each race about the specific Democrat vs. the GOP candidate. Tie him the to the GOP in general, and present the democrat as an individual. Do you want to elect "Jim" or do you want to elect this bunch of GOP freakazoids?

[nevergiveup]

3. We will likely loose a senate seat in Illinois

It is not a done deal but it doesn't look good. We will also likely loose a Congressional seat here in Illinois 14. The new Democratic congressman, Bill Foster, has been incognito. His voting recording is descent considering this is basically a Republican district but he doesn't communicate with his base and everyone in his office is rude. I have no clue how he expects to be re-elected.

[Ozymanithrax]

4. Arizona's law could have a big effect on Hispanics, who often swing...

Republican. They are the largerst minority and they have been deeply offended by the blatant racism.

[xchrom]

5. As one who hates the insurance reform bill and everything

That went with it, the trials for the folks khlid, skeptical about Afghanistan, DADT, etc --

I am really beginning to think you're right.

And Arizona maybe the nail in the coffin.

[tekisui]

6. It is less what happens between now and then.

And, more the national conditions at filing date. The national feel this Jan-March was that things weren't going well. Health care wasn't a sure thing, yet and jobs numbers were bad.

This drew in repub candidates who are capable of winning the competitive districts. Those that can raise the money and have likely won elections on the past.

I think Dems will lose 15-25 seats in the House. It is possible it could be more, but I doubt it could be less.

Senate, loss of 4.

[RaleighNCDUer]

7. DLC does not belong in that list - they are no more an 'official' part

of the party than DFA is.

And anything the DLC does to screw it up won't be by incompetence, but by intent. They are the republican 5th column, intent on dragging the party to the right and would rather see a Republican win than a liberal Democrat.