Of Reason & Knowledge

[H2O Man]

Kahlil Gibran wrote that, "Reason is a prudent minister, a loyal guide, and a wise counsellor. Reason is light in darkness, as anger is darkness amidst light. Be wise -- let Reason, not Impulse, be your guide." I found Gibran's recommendation to be of value as I read a number of the discussions on two of my favorite political forums this weekend. On both the Democratic Underground and Daily Kos, there were fascinating debates about two Plame scandal issues: the case of Karl Rove, and the release of VP Dick Cheney's copy of Joseph Wilson's New York Times op-ed.

While much of the discussion overlapped on both forums, for the sake of this essay, I will look at the DU threads concerning a possible Rove indictment, and a particularly well thought out diary on Daily Kos by "emptywheel" regarding "Fitzgerald Collecting Cheney's Smoking Guns." Let's start with the Rove controversy.

At the end of last week, there was great anticipation that the grand jury might indict Karl Rove. This included advertisements on MSNBC, promising Friday night coverage on two of their top news shows. I had certainly looked forward to seeing David Shuster's take on the status of Mr. Rove, as well as his thoughts on the most recent filings in the Libby pre-trial hearings. But there was no mention of the Plame scandal to speak of.

The void was filled, however, with a few threads speculating on what may have happened, and then links to a Truthout report by Jason Leopold, that stated Rove had told White House officials that he anticipated being indicted. This was followed by a series of threads which expressed, often heatedly, both support of Leopold, and distain for him. And then a couple of threads linked a report that Rove had indeed been indicted, and some debates about the accuracy of Leopold's claim.

There were two threads that included statements by Larry Johnson, which supported the stance taken by Truthout. By late Sunday, however, there were other threads in which the discussion had degenerated from a sober debate to drunken nonsense. A few people e-mailed me to ask my opinion on some of the issues, or to request that I add my two cents to the quarrels. I'll say that an important point was made last October 26 on Hardball, when Chris Matthews was speaking with Time's reporter Mike Allen:

MA: Well, Chris, there's a lot of dead horses being beaten here. But there is a lot of activity happening that we're not seeing. What a likely scenario for what happened today is Patrick Fitzgerald got some indictments from this grand jury. He is now able to go ....

CM: Oh, you think they're sealed right now?

MA: It's very possible. What I'm told is typically in a case like this, he could get the indictments and now he can go to the targets and say, you can plead to these or I'll go back Friday and get more. You have 12-to-24 hours to think about it.

CM: I think you get a little Whitman's sampler of suggestions like you can plead to the process charge of obstruction or perjury. Or --

MA: Or I can add a bunch of counts. You can take a couple of counts, we can do a bunch more.

I am not saying this exchange from almost six months ago is an exact fit for the past week. But it is worthy of our consideration. It also, by no small coincidence, introduces us again to the idea that the on-going investigation focuses on two areas of interest. The first is "procedural" and includes issues such as a person attempting to interfere with an investigation, lying to FBI investigators, or lying to a grand jury. These are the things types of things that I. Lewis Libby has been charged with, and which it appears that Mr. Rove will likely be charged with this week.

The second area is "substantive" issues that can include outing a CIA agent, or disseminating classified information. What is interesting in the Libby case is that there are a number of instances where Scooter's attorneys seem focused upon defending against the substantive issues, even though he has not been charged with them. This has resulted in curious happenings in the pre-trial hearings, and the documents being filed by both the prosecutor and Team Libby.

In "Fitzgerald Collecting Cheney's Smoking Guns," emptywheel notes how the hearings and documents are producing a public awareness of the hands-on role that VP Dick Cheney played in the Plame scandal. Mr. Fitzgerald included, most interestingly, a copy of Wilson's July, '03 New York Times op-ed, with a series of questions Cheney wrote in the margins, along with several sections the vice president underlined.

At least one person stated that Cheney's notes were not necessarily of great significance, because there was no evidence if Cheney had spoken to others before he made them. Actually, in his 5-12 Response to the Court's questions on this, Fitzgerald noted, "The annotated version of the article reflects the contemporaneous reaction of the Vice President to Mr. Wilson's Op Ed article..." The diary made it clear that "emptywheel" was fully aware of Mr. Fitzgerald's discription of the significance of the Cheney notes, even if others are not.

After reading this, I went back to review two quotes from the October 28, 2005 Libby indictment that I think are important to keep in mind when looking at VP Cheney's notes on the Wilson op-ed:

"5. On or about June 9, 2003, a number of classified documents from the CIA were faxed to the Office of the Vice President to the personal attention of LIBBY and another person in the Office of the Vice President. The faxed documents, which were marked as classified, discussed, among other things, Wilson and his trip to Niger, but did not mention Wilson by name. After receiving these documents, LIBBY and one or more other persons in the Office of the Vice President handwrote the names 'Wilson' and 'Joe Wilson' on the documents." (page 4) ....

"9. On or about June 12, 2003, LIBBY was advised by the Vice President of the United States that Wilson's wife worked at the Central Intelligence Agency in the Counterproliferation Division. LIBBY understood that the Vice President had learned this information from the CIA." (page 5)

Now that brings us back to the October 26, 2005 Hardball. Republican attorney Brad Blakeman was telling Chris Matthews that the White House was simply upset by Joseph Wilson's attack on the president, and the role his wife played in sending him on the Niger trip.

BB: ....I think you have to look at the timeline and look at people's intent, because a crime requires the act of the crime. And also your mental state. You know, the Wilson op-ed comes out in 2003. July 6. And then a week later, the Novak article comes out. Sothere's hardly time for a cabal within the White House. ...

CM: Unless they knew about it before.

Clearly, the information that has come out in the Libby indictment and in the pre-trial hearings and documents shows that Mr. Fitzgerald has documented "they knew about it before." More, that the vice president played a significant role in the planning of the attacks on Joseph Wilson and Valerie Plame.

And Reason would tell us that is substantive, indeed.

[sabra]

1. The Mathews - Allen exchange is very interesting...

There's been alot to digest this weekend, with both the Cheney revelation and the Leopold report.

[Beetwasher]

2. Substantive Indeed

People need to take a deep breath and chill on this board. Seriously. In between wetting his pants over his forthcoming indictment, Rove probably saunters over to DU to get a chuckle over what his operatives (official or unofficial) are accomplishing here.

[babylonsister]

3. H20 Man, thanks for again being so reasonable and sharing

your knowledge! I'm in a 'hurry up and wait' mode myself, with fingers crossed.

[mod mom]

4. As always, thanks for your insight.

[Sydnie]

5. Great perspective

as usual. Thank you for your words and your work on this.

Waiting to exhale ....

[lala_rawraw]

6. This is how the left helped bring down Gary Webb

and when he was proved right, he still could not get a job.

my take on this whole whorish display of a race to see who can take out a journalist the fastest:
http://wotisitgood4.blogspot.com/2006/05/larisa-leopold-is-solid.html

Thanks Oxygen (wink), you are always brilliant and articulate. I guess people cannot wait and see, can they? They have to attack first and wait for the confirmation (or debunking) later.

[H2O Man]

9. Hello:

At my advanced age, I enjoy the process. I'm in no hurry for this phase of the process to conclude. I'm reminded of that old Irish-American poet James Douglas Morrison, who suggested that we all, "go real slow ... you'll like it more and more."

The discussions, even when they include heated debate, are a good thing. There are a couple people that I had some disagreements with on DU on Friday that I consider good and decent people.

What is destructive -- and we find it in all areas of culture, including the political, social, and religious debates on DU -- is when people take an "us vs them" position. And I will have more to say about that soon.

[merh]

13. The scooping the story is what has caused the problem.

Why on earth is it so important to be the first to report that Rove has been indicted? H2O, you and others have been saying that he was going to be indicted for, is it 2 years now, I lost count of the time, I don't recall when we first debated in the Plame threads.

Many of us were certain it would be in July of that year, was it so long ago, was it 2003? Predictions were made, champagne was purchased and chilled, but the indictments didn't happen at that time and at that time, many here wouldn't let us forget or premature predictions. They harassed us until the stench of the next scandal hit the netmunity.

Many of us have researched and pondered the Plame outing, we have analyzed it ad nausea and prayed that the indictments would come and with them justice for years now. We have learned to wait and weigh the facts, temper our expectations with the realization that the wheels of justice turn slowly and often, that is the best way for them to work.

What I do not understand is why there has to be a scoop? When it happens, it will happen and not before.

[lala_rawraw]

15. I cannot answer that question as I am not the editor

of TruthOut. But I imagine they felt strongly enough to get this out ASAP. No editor in their right mind would allow a story like this unless they had talked to and checked the sources themselves. I know the folks at TO, and I know Jason's work, I find this solid. If I am proved wrong for allowing time to confirm (or debunk) this, so be it. But I am not going to shoot the messenger and especially not knowing for sure something to be true or false. There is no reason for such things unless there is an agenda. This concept of all of the bloggers being somehow discredited for believing something is ridiculous. The only person who will be discredited is the writer and also, the organization the writer works for. The readers who get excited about a story are NOT the reporters and will not be discredited. Such arguments are really crazy frankly.

[H2O Man]

17. The Good Old Days ....

Some of the old-timers here will recall a specific date in mid-July '03 that I said would be important, back in about April that year. As it turned out, in early July, Mr. Fitzgerald asked the judge to give him an extension on the grand jury, which had been scheduled to "run out" on the date I had mentioned. A number of people pointed to that as proof that I was wrong, while others wondered how in heck I had picked a date that had not been public knowledge. (I seem to recall that you had retained an attorney named Voltaire to sue me for the price of the bottle you bought.)

Of course you are right: what will happen, will happen.

[merh]

25. If I still had a house, I would still have that bottle.

The Plame investigation has a life and a cycle all it's own. Who cares to rush it.

As always, dear friend, it's good to read your words. :hug :loveya:

[Me.]

20. Only Fools Would Mess With You Merh

Because nothing stops you. Not weenie little posters and not big, ugly hurricanes.

*shadow government*

[merh]

26. I've been slowed considerably.

But not stopped. ;)

It's good to see you, Me. :hug:

[itzamirakul]

30. Merh, I am so glad that you wrote this post because I have been

wondering the same exact thing. Why this extreme rush to beat everyone else to breaking the story? It sort of takes you back to those old b&w movies of the 40s, doesn't it? I even began to wonder if there was some kind of money involved for the first person or blog to break a big story like the Rove indictment.

My newly developed cynicism won't allow me to become to overjoyed at any news about this current administration possibly getting its just desserts, because they seem to be covered in teflon.

[Coexist]

7. there is also the David Schuster speculation:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2610135

Olbermann:...Scooter Libby's attorney says he was warned about the implication of outing Valerie Plame's name, any idea who warned him or how did this come out in court?

Shuster: It came out from defense attorneys when they're talking about possible evidence that might get introduced to show that Scooter Libby did not intent to leak Valerie Plame's identity.... but it does explain one thing. If this information and if this warning to SL came from the CIA or an official representing the CIA. It does explain why the CIA was so infuriated right from the beginning when it was disclosed right from the beginning when it was disclosed that this information got leaked to reporters and why the criminal referral from the CIA to the justice dept. happened so quickly. The tea leaves seem to suggests that Karl Rove is going to get indicted and again these are just tealeaves, but first the judge talked about a resolution of Karl Rove coming soon and again remember, Karl Rove testified for the fifth time and he still has not been cleared. And secondly the body language of Patrick Fitzgerald was astounding. He went to such great lengths to try to avoid mentioning Karl Rove or talking about his status. That in of itself seemed to signal something unique.... all the other attorney's are talking about evidence and there was evidence mentioned today involving documents and memos of, from Karl Rove to another administration official about Valerie Wilson. If they're talking about documents and memos as opposed to the Stephen Hadley email that Karl Rove wrote, in other words, if there are other emails or documents that would suggest that perhaps prosecutors have an even stronger case to suggest that Karl Rove didn't have memory problems, he was willfully trying to avoid remembering certain things to the grand jury, but we'll see pretty soon I think.

[BR_Parkway]

8. Interesting indeed. Rover is seen as absolutely needed for any

GOP vicotories in '06 - Cheney is already polling below child molestors, why not have Rover cut a deal with Fitz to give him the VP, then sit back and watch Rover get a pardon from Shrub for his "extreme patriotism" (or whatever phrase KKKarl tells him to say) so that Rover can get right to the elections and rebuilding brand Bush/GOP - blaming all the party problems on Cheney - and sliding Condi into position as VP as the new party's shining light?

[bigtree]

10. they knew about it before

fascinating. Thanks much.

[stop the bleeding]

11. Reason and perspective

these are very valuable in times like these.

Hopefully you will get a B-day announcement on Tuesday ;)

[Patsy Stone]

12. Indeed!

Thanks, H2O Man.

[Pithy Cherub]

14. The old adage, past pehavior is indicative of future

performance has been forgotten by many. Back in October, Rove was this close to an indictment, Rove did fancy pirouettes and gave a daring dance recital for Fitz to try and escape the looming disaster. Fitz was honor & duty bound to listen and research the validity of the new information. It stands to Reason that Rove would try another Hail Mary and try to cut the best possible deal. Fitz may have left the very long meeting saying give me some time to consider/deliberate/investigate the information and I'll call you. Rove would have to carry on while having deeply anxious moments while Fitz determines next steps. Rove is not in the driver's seat - Fitz is.

All the signs are there from those who have paid the most attention to the case that dealmaking has been a part of the case. Patience is a virtue, but as Maya Angelou says, you can not practice any of the virtues without Courage. Jason courageously reported the truth and many know being first and alone is not for the faint of heart or the impatient.

[Catherine Vincent]

16. Recommended!

I believe Jason Leopold should be a guest on Olbermann or Chris Matthews show asap!

[Me.]

18. The Quiet In The Storm

That would be you. So essentially what I'm getting from what you've written is that Rove was given "24" hours to either make a deal or face the consequences. Yes? It's interesting, FitzG. could probably get a lot more info, much more easily if he didn't insist on jail time. I'm thankful he's chosen to travel the road less traveled.

*shadow government*

[Lasher]

19. Kahlil Gibran?

Now I know for sure that you're an old hippie. My copy of The Prophet is so old, the binding has failed and the pages are coming out.

Peace brother, it's still a good idea.

[H2O Man]

21. "..an old hippie"

I have a lot of friends who were (and are) hippies.

[magellan]

22. Thank you, H2O Man

Recommended.

[robertpaulsen]

23. If you know the timeline, there is no controversy.

At least not where Cheney is concerned. As far as Rove goes, I like your Jim Morrison quote, the slower this goes, the more Rove squirms. But there should be no question that Cheney did talk to Libby about Plame before Wilson's column was published, thus giving more weight to the "cabal" charge by Wilson in light of Cheney's margin notes. The real question is, what did Cheney tell Fitz about this when he was interviewed by him in 2004?

[stop the bleeding]

24. yeah and what did * say as well

could there have been a slip, nothing like having the puppet leader involved in this cabal, one can dream :)

[Alamom]

27. Thank you...Patience is a virtue.....not easy with so much at stake.

But, we can't make it happen and we have to wait. SOMETHING seems to be up ! IMHO

The MSM (all) seems a little off today. Stories that are of great importance...
Immigration - Bush Speech tonight
Duke Case
a few other odds and ends which normally wouldn't be Monday morning news.

But they are all talking as fast as possible, repeating the same stories over and over and some seem visably anxious or nervous.

Nothing about the Mother's Day Anti-war March. Nothing about the administration, except Bush-Immigration Speech.


Nothing about other indictments and investigatons.
Nothing about the NSA.
Nothing about Hayden.

A few words on CNN about the escalating violence in Iraq. (maybe a minute)
The flooding in the N.E.
I've been channel flipping since 4 a.m and something seems very odd today.

Maybe just me. :*

Cabin fever due to a strained back and too much news and TV. :(

Looks like they're reporting about everything except the government.

Ramble off.

[northamericancitizen]

28. As always your voice as a calming effect in here. TY

[fooj]

29. H20 Man- once again the voice of reason.

Peace.

[dmr]

31. This is where I think we're at:

MA: It's very possible. What I'm told is typically in a case like this, he could get the indictments and now he can go to the targets and say, you can plead to these or I'll go back Friday and get more. You have 12-to-24 hours to think about it.

I also suspect Bush's* very unusual and out of character prime time Presidential Address tonight was planned as a diversion from the anticipated news blitz on a Rove indictment. Fitz works on his own time-table, so if he had planned to indict Rove today, he messed up their diversion - perhaps on purpose.

I'm looking forward to an indictment tomorrow. It's my birthday - no one has to wrap Rove up in a bow or anything for me; a perp walk will do just fine. Having one more crook out of the WH would be a wonderful gift!

BTW, H20 Man :yourock:

[H2O Man]

32. Lots of 5-16

birthdays around here!

[stepnw1f]

36. Question H2O

What do you make of Rove's demeanor... have you ever seen the same demeanor from others who about to be indicted?

[H2O Man]

39. Yes.

I will admit from the giddy-up that I am not entirely objective. But, when I think of when a co-worker and I did jail group, or did any of the forensic groups at the clinic, there were plenty of people who behaved like Karl. I have one person who comes to mind, from years and years ago, when I worked in a different capacity in a different part of the state. It involved a priest who was an extremely obnoxious, self-righteous, arrogant fellow, who was within 48 and then 24 hours of being charged for abusing a minor.

[stepnw1f]

43. I Figured

He's dellusional, but then again he has no other choice in order to fight to the end. He may as well believe in his own lies.

[im10ashus]

33. Patience is a virtue.

Having just started a new job, I've had few chances to participate in the dialogue here on all things Fitzgerald. I thank you for your concise and informative posts. I always know where to come when I am in a pinch and can't sort through all the information.

:yourock:

K&R!

:kick:

P.S. Did you know "dialogue" isn't in the DU dictionary? Am I spelling it right? :-)

[coeur_de_lion]

34. Thanks for cutting to the chase, H

It's confusing to a some-time DU person like me to sort through the various conflicting Rove threads. We are basically in the same position we were in about a week ago, just speculating. Much of what we speculate about is an educated guess, but a guess is still a guess.

I hope that dmr gets a good birthday present. My sister's birthday is the next day -- maybe she will get an early B'day present as she watches KKKarl get raked over the coals by Fitz -- and the press.

Me, I'll just settle for Fitzmas.

[Spazito]

35. Thanks, H2O Man, again, for an OP both informative and reasoned

Much appreciated.

[H2O Man]

41. Thank you.

I've noted that you were among the voices of reason over the weekend. I appreciated reading your posts.

[Spazito]

44. Thank you for that!

I must be honest, though, and admit that late in the evening, along with my reasoning a little snark snuck in now and then, somewhat to my shame, lol.

[sweetheart]

37. what!

If reason and knowledge be your gods,
then please, "simple"... fancy talk and no
executive summary for the uninformed.

Leaves me wondering if the title should not be
more in keeping with the post.

[IndigoE]

38. Fitz. Style

I'm new at posting but... If you consider Fitz's style as described regarding his Illinois work: He starts at the outside with more trivial transgressions and moves methodically toward the big target. He pulls the fence in as he goes and leaves no room for escape. Give him time and be patient, we're waiting for the big fish.

[H2O Man]

40. There is a section

in Bob Woodward's book "The Secret Man" (page 91) where Mark Felt schools the young "reporter" in this art: "He gave me a little lecture about breaking a conspiracy like Watergate. 'You build convincingly from the outer edges in, you get ten times the evidence you need against the Hunts and Liddys. They feel hopelessly finished -- they may not talk right away, but the grip is on them. Then you move up and do the same at the next level. ..."

While it is a fairly common tactic, some prosecutors are better at it than others. Mr. Fitzgerald is clearly very talented in this art.

Welcome to DU!

[Tsiyu]

46. Welcome to DU, IndigoE

:hi:

[Scout1071]

42. Wow. Thank you for posting H2OMan.

You are and have been on my short list of favorite contributors.

Keep up the great work.

[usregimechange]

45. Next stop Roveland, on to the VP.

[myrna minx]

47. I guess that I'm grateful to have missed the referred battles this

weekend. Thank you so much for your thoughtful and insightful essays, H2O Man. I can always count on you to provide the salient core points of the matter and to shoo away the chaff.

[Hoping4Change]

48. Thank you H20 Man for affirming the importance of reason.

"Anger is darkness admidst light." What a powerful quote. To view anger as darkness could explain why I feel paralyzed and fear there is no way out when I give anger free rein.

[bobbieinok]

49. thanks for all your careful work .......especially for your work in the ma

many Plame threads at DU a year(?) ago

[Oilwellian]

50. I would love to know more....

about Cheney's knowledge of Valerie Plame, long before her husband even went to Niger. It's just too coincidental that Valerie Plame monitored the proliferation of wmd's in the Middle East, and Cheney visited the CIA several times to twist arms and change Iraq's wmd intelligence to fit the policy. It only makes sense that Valerie Plame would be one of the specialists that disagreed with the Bush Crime Family's certainty of wmds in Iraq.

One thing that has never made sense is how this administration could not know Plame was a NOC. They were pushing fiercly for war because of possible wmds, Plame's operation would have been one of the premier sources this administration used to verify those wmds, so it only makes sense they knew of her operation LONG before they leaked her name to the press.

On the other hand, if they didn't know Plame was a NOC, I'm left with wondering about the communications between Tenet and the rest of the cabal who were plotting against Plame. If they were discussing her name, openly, for almost an entire month before Novak's column, why didn't Tenet step in and silence them?

Perhaps I'm a bit out there, but feel a strong sense there's much more to this story than we've been lead to believe, so far. You enlighten us with your posts H2O and look forward to the days and weeks ahead. :D