Brazil Presidential Race Goes to Runoff

[cal04]

Brazil's leftist president faces a runoff for a second term after voters denied him an outright victory Sunday amid last-minute allegations his party engaged in a scheme of electoral corruption and dirty tricks.

The Oct. 29 runoff was announced by election authorities after 98 percent of the vote had been counted, with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva getting 48.8 percent compared to 41.4 percent for the center-right Geraldo Alckmin, Sao Paulo state's former governor.

It was a stunning defeat for Silva, after polls less than a week ago predicted him trouncing Alckmin with 59 percent of the vote -- far more than the 50 percent plus one vote needed to win the contest in the first round.

Although Silva said earlier Sunday he had been confident of a first-round victory, his campaign manager, Marco Aurelio Garcia, said the president and his campaign staff ''always prepared ourselves for a two-round election.''

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Brazil-Elections.html?hp&ex=1159761600&en=9b61193c7b58cdd4&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[Zynx]

1. Lula has a slim edge going in, but this is far from certain.

A further left candidate got about 7% of the vote so that will go to him since voting is mandatory and there can't be protest votes. However, that gets him about 54% and Brazilian voters are much more fluid than Americans so this could really go down to the wire.

[Bucky]

2. It's also typical for incumbents to lose run off votes that they won @ 1st

A good rule of thumb in political science is that if an incumbent is forced into a run off, as much as 1/3rd of his first round votes are up for grabs. Da Silva needs to go on the offensive.

[Straight Shooter]

3. Pay close attention to the U.S., and see how dirty conservatives are.

Conservatives are the same all over the world. Nothing but trouble.