How the Foley Scandal is the October Surprise

[ryanus]

First off, remember we are talking about elections, not the truth of what happened. You may disagree with my observation, but I want to go on record with it.

The rebublicans were in trouble with the Military Commissions Act, Iraq, Iran, the Rice\Tenet 9/11 meeting and everything in general. In my area deep in the heart of Bush country, the Military Commissions Act was really upsetting Bush supporters and getting people to think.

The Republicans have had dirt on Foley, and most likely others, for a long time. Foley probably is not out of place in the party. The Republicans hold onto dirt on their own people for the same reason other criminal organizations do (watch The Firm, learn about Skull and Bones, gangs). It keeps people in line, and it is a way to know what kind of people you are dealing with. Some gangs require that you kill an old lady, witnessed by the gang, before you can join. That's how they know if you are one of them.

The Republicans needed to get the voting public to stop talking and thinking about the issues that may be bad for the Republicans at the elections. The Republicans decide to sactifice one of their own guys and create a controlled scandal. All of the sudden there are news reports of this Foley guy having sexual converstaions with an underage male page. No information about how the conversations were saved or recorded, some of them for years. No information on how the media got the conversations. The truth is that the Republicans gave the media the conversations. This was in the mainstream media.

Foley resigns, without admitting to the conversations. The Republicans apparently go into damage control, and freepers are in denial about Foley.

More conversations are revealed, fed by the Republicans if needed, otherwise by the pages. These are worse conversations and they are true.

Everyone discusses what Foley did and how bad it was. The Republicans let this simmer for awhile. More information comes out that Hastert new about this. This scandal is getting huge. Simmer some more. The republican base moves into acceptance of the truth mode, and they begin to lose faith in their party.

Now the Republicans decide to poison the well by feeding the media some conversations that are not real. These can be worse than the real conversations or not, it doesn't really matter. Then they can point out or get the media to point out that some of the conversations were pranks, fake, untrue, whatever. The freepers will be overjoyed and claim democratic operatives were behind it, or maybe some of it at least. The majority of americans won't have paid enough attention to realize that only one or some of the conversations were fake, and they will just think that this scandal has been blown way out of proportion. They might think there is something to it, but they won't know, or really care, what the truth is, because they don't is relevant to the election.

The freepers may even rally around the republicans because now they think those dirty democratic operatives have tried to take a minor issue and blow it up into something huge. If they sense the Republican Party is being attacked, they will go defend it. They will claim that whatever the truth is to the Foley Scandal, that he was just one bad apple and he doesn't reflect the core values of the party. They will see the bigger problem is that this is just politics as usual, with the democrats supposedly lying about what Foley did just to hurt the party.

In the meantime, there have been no disucussions about the Military Commission Act, Iraq, Iran, the Rice\Tenet 9/11 meeting. Everyone has been looking into the scandal, trying to figure out how bad it really is and how deep it goes. Bush is quiet. Everything else is nearly forgotten. Maybe the net results is that there is some fallout on the republican side, but way less than there otherwise would have been. And yes the republicans had to sacrifice one of their own, but it was necessary to create a big enough scandal to get everyones attention and focus on it, not the other issues. We may even see the republicans base rally even more.

Foley did do all that bad stuff, but in the end, the voting public doesn't care, not because they think it was acceptable, but because they don't know for sure exactly what the truth is. And they public has forgotten what was important. In the end, Bush and the republicans have gotten passed the worse legislation ever in the history of the US, Rice is caught in lies about knowing the Al Qaeda threat before 9/11, Iraq goes into civil war, and naval ships are sent to Iran. No one cares anymore, if they can even remember.


On edit: look at the some of the reaction of the freepers to drudge's claim that some of the conversations were a prank:

"We are going to pick up seats.

Anyone still doubt it?

Its the WELLSTONE FUNERAL 2, BABY!!!!"

"Ah-HAH!!! The 'Rats will be exposed! Get the popcorn."

"This is UNREAL!

dims INVENT the news. once again."

"What the hell is going on here!

This whole thing is driving me nuts!"

"Its called OPTIMISM, people.

You GOTTA BELIEVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fish swim, scorpions sting, Democrats LIE.

That is just the way it is."

"This is turning out to be a big implosion by the rats."

"hate to say "I told ya so," Freepers, but I TOLD YOU SO."

Plenty more like this -> http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1714403/posts

Case closed.

[greyl]

1. If you think it's valuable to remember those other issues

why not start a thread about those other issues? ;)

[AndyA]

2. And it's up to the Democratic Party to refocus the attention to the real

issues. They can do this by appearing on talk shows, radio shows, issuing press releases, etc., but where are they? Are they talking about Condi's lies? Perhaps, but I'm not hearing a lot of it.

We should be seeing tons of Dems in the MSM right now, but we aren't. Where's Howard Dean? They need to refocus America on the real stories. It's election time, they should be able to get coverage.

[bryant69]

3. It is possible

Rush Limbaugh is laying the ground work for this -today he was talking about how IM messages might be saved, and whether or not they can be altered). Certainly they would much rather the story be about what bastards we Dems are. That said, I have to think there are better ways to change the subject. Right now this is going pretty poorly, and if they lose Hastert, it will be even worse.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[ryanus]

10. I didn't mention the evidence much

in a (failed) effort to keep the post short. But that is another tactic:

Say that you have evidence of a real crime, but you want people to dismiss the evidence, and the crime in the arena of public opinion.

One thing you can do is have someone present the evidence, but make sure the chain of possession is broken, try to have it pass through many hands, screw up the date on a form, mix it in with other stuff, make it unreliable. Have someone show how it could have been corrupted or altered. Then have talking heads bring up how the evidence proves nothing, is unreliable, and that those who push it are trying to pull a fast one on the people. Then the public dimisses not only the evidence, but the crime as well. People will think that the crime is unfounded because it has been shown that the evidence was faked or something. Dan Rather has some experience with this tactic.

This is what first pricked my interest with the whole scandal. How did they get these conversations? How can they prove that they are real? Who gave them to the media? Why isn't the media explaining how the evidence was obtained? This doesn't mean it wasn't true, but it was like it was being set up to be discredited. Why? And then the news comes out that Republicans were behind the release of the conversations. Then I knew. This was scandal created by the Republicans. And as I posted in the OP, this in no way means Foley didn't do all that stuff, but it does mean the Republicans are going to get away with the public not caring or not know what the truth is.

[bryant69]

13. Well that last paragrpah is exactly what they are saying

"How do we have these IMs? what is the chain of custody?" I need to go back and read the stories and see if anybody is doing any work on where these messages came from.

But I suppose you can posit two scenarioes, depending on what their goals are.

1) their goal is to change the subject from Woodwards book, the Iraq war and other disasters.

2) their goal is to salvage what they can out of a botched situation to begin with.

I think 2 is more likely.

They had a mix of stories before - some that were going their way and some that weren't - now they have the white noise of a sex scandal that is all pretty negative to the Republicanoids so far.

Incidentally there's obviously a distinction between a wild guess and knowing something; you've raised some questions about this scandal, but you haven't answered them, at least not with any proof.

Bryant

[ryanus]

15. Yep. Check it out

"Just remember how gleeful DU was about the Bush TANG memos -- for about 12 hours, until they were revealed as fake by FR and LGF.

1,520 posted on 10/05/2006 1:50:27 PM PDT by Dems_R_Losers (Vote as if your life depends on it -- because it does!!!)
< Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1513 | View Replies >"

Even if the memos were fake, does that mean what they claimed is not true?

[bryant69]

16. What they claimed was true

But in this case one supposes that if the IMs are dummies, their concern is pretended. They know they aer phonies because they phonied them up.

Bryant

[ryanus]

19. More freeper reaction proving the point

To: neverdem
> But the Democrats . . . are fortunate that Foley’s target was under 18.

I thought it was established that he was over 18 when the IMs were sent.
4 posted on 10/05/2006 1:34:04 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)

To: JIM O
A frat prank gone bad. A sniggering 18 year old frat boy enticed a booze-soaked middle-aged gay man into sending pathetic and salacious lustful IMs so the whole frat boy crew could laugh themselves sick.

And the MSM and Democrats cynically manipulated and refashioned the prank into the myth of the cherubic prepubescent 12 year old page preyed upon by a cunning and powerful Republican pedophile.
1,489 posted on 10/05/2006 1:44:58 PM PDT by JCEccles


So it appears after Foley was told to knock it off, he did.

Did I miss something?

23 posted on 10/05/2006 10:48:37 AM PDT by art_rocks

Where is the evidence this is backfiring on them. The fact that the X-page was 18 and an X-page, now 21 is not getting aired. Matthews is repeating the same lies. Fox is doing no better. The other MSMs' are repeating the liberal lies.

It needs to get out to the public....the real facts, and they are not.
28 posted on 10/05/2006 11:12:44 AM PDT by Texas Songwriter


> "Why would Foley play along?"

Because he's a perv. He didn't know he was the butt of a prank. Foley's still the bad guy, here. Now we have the young guys as additional bad guys.

Foley's still a perv.

[Freedomofspeech]

4. I totally agree with you...

well put.

[yorgatron]

5. if this is,indeed,the "October Surprise" then it has backfired.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Sex Sells

Joe and Joanne Six Pack could give a rat's ass if a suspected terrorist is being denied due process but they care if the neighborhood pervert is trying to bed their sixteen year old son.



Fact.

[Jacobin]

7. This might be october and this might be a surprise

But I guaranfuckingTEE you this wasn't what the RW had in mind.

Sex scandals, especially shlepping after teens by an old fart, is big news, easy to understand, and will piss off Mr. Average American WAAAY more than 'torture' or 'habeas WHATUS?', or any number of way more important issues.

This is a fucking gift from heaven. For christ sake, I don't understand why people are looking this gift horse in the mouth

[CTyankee]

12. Let's not forget the congressman accused of choking his mistress

He now has a campaign ad apologizing for the affair but denying the attempted strangulation. His Dem opponent is running quotes from the mistress's complaint to the police.

After the sorry parade of Duke Cunningham, Jack Abramoff, Tom Delay, etc, etc, most voting folks just want to get rid of the whole lot of pubs. They ain't worth crap.

[Kazak]

8. The double-triple-quadruple cross?

Sounds just Rovian enough. Could backfire bigtime though. Here's hopin'...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. You Mean Rove

You mean Rove cajoled Mark Foley into becoming a gay congressman who's been hitting on male pages for ten years.

Just wow.

[ryanus]

11. not exactly

It means that they have at least some congressmen who are gay pedofile congressman that they can keep dirt on, and use that dirt if needed.

They didn't "make" Foley bad, Foley probably got in because he was bad.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Your Assuming

You're assuming the average American cares more about some suspected terrorists' Fourteenth Amendment rights than Chester the Molester putting the wood to his or her sixteen year old son.

[KharmaTrain]

17. This May Save Them The Senate

I don't completely agree with how intricate the "honey pot" angle is here since wouldn't it serve Rove's purpose better had it been a Democratic Congressman involved? There you get to roll out the Clennis, Gaybashing and every other hammer in his trick bag from now til Nov. 7th.

I'm talking to people about the elections every day...some are Repugnicans or newly minted "independents" and these people can walk and chew gum at the same time. In fact there's a dovetail effect...they still are talking about Iraq or the price of oil or how their medicare is all screwed up or how crappy the schools are and once you tie in Repugnican Congress, the current sleeze factor is evident. The tint of corruption that people held their noses when they voted for these goons is now overpowering for many.

But that doesn't carry over to the Senate races...as the polls out today are showing. It's taken the spotlight away from Allen's racism in Virginia or Corker's corruption in Tennessee or what a rubber stamp a Talent or DeWine is. With all the emphasis on the House and their scandals this is giving enough Senators cover...including Lieberman as it's all Foley/Hastert/Reynolds.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I Disagree...

This incident creates a pall over the entire Republican party.

It makes them look like hypocrites. They rail against equal rights for gays while one of their own hits on teenage boys.

Their main claim to power rested on the facade that they were morally virtuous. Without that crutch they are worthless.

[KharmaTrain]

21. This Is Stopping The Bleeding

All Hastert's trying to do is keep his job and he doesn't care how he does it. He's probably getting advice from Chenney whose telling him to hang tough and just say and do whatever you have to to create confusion or distraction. Thus we have the Clinton/Dick Morris bullshit...but it's all short term.

I stated earlier I don't see this as Foley being a plant used by Rove to distract from other issues...as much as a Foley would have been used by a DeLay ala a Mafia blackmail situation. It'd would serve Rove's purpose if it were a Democratic gay involved here since there was so much political mileage he could have gotten out of it. With Foley, this is once again spending a week playing defense and fighting as many of your own people as the opposition.

Hopefully enough people have seen through the shell and blame games going on here not to believe a word any of the corrupt goons say, but this is like a chess game now...it's controlling the news cycle...it's keeping your base energize and right now the Repugnicans are pulling out all stops to hold onto power and doing whatever it takes.

Unfortunately, we still have 4 more weeks of this...and who knows what last minute tricks and bombshells they have waiting.

Cheers...

[ryanus]

20. Homework assignment

Go peruse a bunch of discussion boards, especially the freepers. You will see that a lot of people are now convinced that this was a set up by democratic operatives. You will also see mane people just confused and not knowing what is going on. You will also see people acknowledging that Foley is no sweetheart, but they think that the democrats have twisted the situation into something way worse. Of course there are mixed reactions and opinions, but obviously this scandal is being doubted by more and more people, and more and more people are just stopping to care about it.

So not only did the republicans get people to stop talking about the real issues, they have gotten a lot of people to think that maybe Foley didn't do those bad things. I still think he did. But I have forgotten about the Military Commission Act either.

There you go. That's my proof.

[dailykoff]

22. "Controllled scandal," that's good.

Whether or not it works as planned, this is a 100% GOP-engineered scand-o-rama, and Foley knows it, which is why he got on the first train out of town.