Is This A Possible Kim Jung IL Strategy?

[Blackhatjack]

He knows the US is tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan, and planning Iran. He also knows there are 30,000 US troops on the DMZ in S. Korea, well within range of thousands of his missiles. He has a million man army, with a huge percentage of them massed on the dmz. Seoul is within the range of his missiles, and well within range of a massive invasion force breaching the border. He is counting on the fact that we are into 3rd and 4th rotations of troops, and there would be few available to deploy in support of the 30,000 already there.

Knowing that the sanctions about to be imposed by the UN will weaken his already destitute and famine stricken population, will cut into his sale and movement of contraband which has brought cash into the country, and will make it very difficult to support the million man army, He may well think that the time to strike South Korea is now --before things devolve into an even worse state.

If the US moves its existing troops to a rear position out of range of his missiles, he will surely take this as a sign the US is about to strike him. If the US leaves their troops in place, they will be overrun by the sheer numbers of his army. If there is an all out attack with missiles and a massive breach of the border, North Korea will be able to infiltrate South Korean territory making it difficult for the US and UN to dislodge them because they will be surrounded by South Korean civilians. In taking control of South Korea he may think that he can accede to the wealth and assets and use them to head off the domestic and military service problem. It will also put him in control of a strategic location.

His biggest concern would have to be China. Would China come to the rescue of South Korea? China knows if Kim Jung IL goes down, there will be a massive influx of North Koreans into China in need of food and services. If there is a collapse of his government, there will be a war on China's doorstep, with an uncertain regime to come.

One more twist --given the state of total uncertainty and confusion, would China take that as its opportunity to invade and take back Taiwan? How would the US respond to support Taiwan, when we would need China to rein in North Korea? We would be tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan AND dealing with Iran simultaneously?

This whole scenario might be labelled far-fetched, but there are factual foundations for each incremental part. And just brainstorming the possibilities, you can see the interconnectedness of what appear to be separate black and white issues.

Obviously, the decisions this White House makes in the next few months could have monumental ramifications for years to come. With Kim Jung IL feeling that time is running out, we could face very difficult decisions in a matter of weeks.

[aquart]

1. LOL!

You do realize he's the SON of the previous leader? Basically, that makes him the George W. Bush of his country. Unless he's got a Karl Rove, he's not doing that much thinking.

More along the lines of YOU IGNORED ME? WELL, IGNORE THIS!

Would it have killed George to give the guy a party? They have so much in common.

[stillcool]

2. I think...

it's NATO vs. every one else.

[Selatius]

3. North Korea would lose more than it gains by attacking South Korea

He would face three nations in such a war: South Korea, Japan, and the US.

South Korean troops would already be on hand, and air support would be provided by the US Air Force and the US Navy. Japan would help South Korea with logistics and ship in needed war materiel.

Technology acts as a force multiplier, and North Korea's military lacks modern technological capabilities of the South Korean armed forces. As a result, South Korea may not need an army comparable in size to North Korea's to beat North Korea in a full-scale war, especially if they have backing from the US and other allies.

[Greatwildbeast]

4. Two paper tigers

I truly doubt that a worst case scenario such as you mention is in the works. Sure Kim Jong II is a looney however any kind of attack he authorized against the South could easily be met with rebellion from within his own ranks. Or at least he has to think that way.

Further what guarantee does Jong have that the United States might just retaliate by nuking the bastard?

Unthinkable?

The "unthinkable" has always been thinkable.

Besides with the U.S. tied down in two costly wars this would up the ante for a retaliatory strike by the U.S. Jong II certainly has to figure he'd be wiped clean off the map. Awful and heinous as it sounds the Bush Regime may just consider a series of nuclear strikes against North Korea as more "cost effective" than a reversal of troop deployment.

I'm not saying that this is a good idea. It's a TERRIBLE one. But Kim Jong II has to consider the possibility.

So expect him to keep rattling sabers for some time. maybe even a long time.

[ConsAreLiars]

5. How silly - you buy the bull and swallow it, and now you try to sell it.

The situation was created when a group of cowards with guns start yelling insults and threatening to kill all the "bad guys." Get rid of those monsters, and put rational people in charge. That will be all that is needed.

[Blackhatjack]

6. Obviously This Is Written From Kim Jung IL's Perspective/Thinking...

...in that sense we are not necessarily dealing with a rational thinker. You cannot effectively negotiate with a 'crazy man' since he may not be grounded in reality. However, the one thing that is real to Kim Jung IL is that he cannot feed and service his army and his people if his source of income is cut off(sale of contraband) and imports of food and heating oil are cut back. Plus as corrupt as his administration is, he knows he must feed and service that million man army or it will collapse from within and pose a threat to him.