Is This '94? - National Journal

[WillyT]

Is This '94?
By Chuck Todd, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2006

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There are two ways to look at any election cycle -- by comparing it to past cycles or taking it at face value. The problem for prognosticators is that we have to use both methods simultaneously. History is my guiding principle on all things political, but I also believe that every election is an individual snowflake.


The similarities between this midterm cycle and '94 are striking, and yet the differences are stark. I've broken down this debate into reasons why the cycles are and are not similar.

The reasons why '06 seems similar to '94 are:


1. One-Party Control: This is probably the single most important similarity framing this cycle. In order for a "change" election atmosphere to work for the minority party, the party in power has to be viewed as in control of everything. And right now it's clear that Republicans are in charge. GOP partisans will argue that no one really controls the Senate without 60 votes, but that doesn't resonate with voters. A Republican is speaker of the House, a Republican is Senate majority leader and there's a Republican in the White House. And thanks to the controversy involving Terri Schiavo, the public presumably views the judiciary as skewing to the right. Similarly, in '94, there was no denying that the Democrats were in charge. Democrats held all three positions.

2. Unpopular President: Like '94, this president has a job rating south of 45 percent. And because President Bush is a member of the party leading Capitol Hill, his problems are Congress' problems. The thing that ought to scare Republicans a bit more about this cycle, compared with how '94 should have scared Democrats, is that Bush's job rating is hovering just beneath 40 percent. In '94, "unpopular" for Clinton was defined as the mid-40s. In fact, in a quick database search of national polls for this same week in '94, the lowest job rating I could find for Clinton was 41 percent (Gallup) and the highest was 48 percent (NBC/Wall Street Journal). Compare that with recent national polls that have come out for Bush. The floor was 36 percent (Gallup) and the ceiling was 43 percent (NPR). What a Republican running for re-election wouldn't give right now for Bush to be sniffing 45 percent, let alone 48 percent.

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Rest Of Analysis: http://nationaljournal.com/todd.htm

Just for your consideration.

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