ABC News: The Note says that Harold Ford must be 5% ahead in polls to win

[WI_DEM]

They don't say why, of course, but I'm sure it's because he's an African-American and they feel that some people will tell pollsters "Sure, I'll vote for Harold" but really won't.

Do you buy this?

They also said that appointing Bob Menendez to the US Senate is probably not one of Jon Corzine's most inspired decisions--apparently he is in real danger of losing.

The Note sure likes to bash Democrats.

[wisteria]

1. I agree with the assessment on Ford, I have heard that before.

Similar to people saying they would vote for a woman for president. On Memendez, I think the people in NJ are too smart to fall for the trumped up corruption charges. However, his opponent does has that name recognition and his father reputation to run on. Memendez also is viewed as an incumbent. I know it is close, I think we can still pull out a win there if the tide goes with Dem's. I have my fingers crossed.

[AspenRose]

2. "Tennessee and the 15% lie"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2907191

[liberal N proud]

3. 5 points is not a very large margin. At 5% it could go anywhere

But all it takes is 1% to win and election.

[THX1138]

4. Well

The Note is usually full of shit, but I saw that dynamic played out when Wilder ran for Governor of VA. Polls showed him 5-10 points ahead right up to the election. Pundits and reporters were assuming he had it in the bag and praise was heaped on the good voters of VA for making such strides on the issue of race. It was hailed as a sign of how much times had changed. When the votes were counted Wilder barely squeaked by, I don't recall the exact numbers but I remember the discrepancy was pretty big. Whether the same thing applies to TN I don't know.

[Clark2008]

5. Maybe it's because we have black box voting....

We're, unfortunately, using Hart Interactive this year. :puke:

[Mark E. Smith]

6. I think the polls are understating Democratic support

The GOP is in for a major pounding. And my biggest regret
is that I will be traveling for business election day
evenings and I'll be up all night watching the results
in a hotel room rather than with friends and family.

[Clark2008]

8. I'm in the most conservative side of the state and I see far

more OUTWARD support for Ford than I do Corker.

I know that's not scientific, but neither are half these polls. I mean, how does 250 people remotely represent the entire state - particularly young voters who don't have landlines?

[democrat in Tallahassee]

10. are you in eastern Tenn? I grew up there and I was surprised to

see Ford signs last time I visited.

[Clark2008]

27. Yep - I'm in Knoxville.

And my neighborhood is absolutely covered in them - Fountain City.

And other DUers from further north - Kingsport and Johnson City - say they have a shortage of signs because so many want them.

Nice, isn't it?

[NashVegas]

7. The Note Is So Freaking Full Of Itself

It reminds me of a particular high school clique I knew. They all became travel agents or something.

[greeneyedboy]

9. that's funny, i thought he needed a simple majority of votes counted to win.

[Mr_Spock]

11. margin of error? likelyhood of voter turnout?

not sure why they would say that, but 5% is generally within the margin of error, and then there is historical data to compare to.

[KharmaTrain]

12. Halperin is a Rove Sockpuppet

The Note might as well be listed with Redstate and Little Green Roadapples...it's nothing more than a right wing rumor mill these days thanks to Mark Halperin...the goon who thinks the media is "liberal" and readily offers advice to his conservative bretheren.

That said...I hate to say I agree with this assessment, but then this is the case with many challengers. Even though this is an open seat, it's to replace a Repugnican and thus a challenge...and the "conventional wisdom" is that a challenger has a heavier road to hoe to win an election...making sure their voters are motivated and get to the polls while the incumbent party can rely on a constant base of votes (especially if there's a strong up or down ticket race) that will ad a point or two on their totals as the "regulars" who aren't polled "come home" for the party.

It'll be interesting to see how the new Ford ad...real powerful...moves the numbers. The good news is the over the top sliming of Ford and several other Democrats appear to be having little effect and may even lead to a backlash. The end-game is those final 72 hours...all GOTV and hopefully Ford's ready to bring out a lot of new and disenfranchised voters...if he is, he'll win.

[msongs]

13. ford sure has the gay vote locked up eh? lock up gays is next? nt

[blm]

14. Halperin is there to EXCUSE any vote-stealing by pointing at OTHER causes

and MAGNIFYING their import, conditioning the public and rest of media to ACCEPT a GOP victory.

[jaysunb]

19. You are Sooooo right

( as usual ) LOL ! :hi:

[blm]

26. Must be what happens when you're exposed to CKLW and WMMS radiowaves

with a good dose of Ghoulardi. ;)

[AndyTiedye]

15. Democrats Always Have to be Way Ahead in the Polls to Win

Because if its anywhere close, The Repiglicans will steal it.

[SoCalDem]

16. In '02, our candidates were MORE than 5% ahead the DAY BEFORE

the election in Georgia, and "lost"

just sayin'

[blm]

18. Wasn't it ahead by 11%? And no media suspected VOTE-STEALING?

Nope. They buy up every damn values crap the GOP throws at them....every damn time.

[BootinUp]

17. There is an interesting theory about this

that someone linked in another thread. Basically that people who take a negative view on minorities (blaming them for any inequalities) are also less likely to answer telephone surveys thereby skewing results.

http://www.asne.org/kiosk/editor/98.july/kohut1.htm

[jaysunb]

21. They are less likely

to be persuadable anyway. Their minds were made up long before the ads ran, as are/were their prejudices.
Fortunately, their numbers are shrinking.

[puffthemagicdragon]

20. I am watching this closely, I think he is a future prez hopeful

I have been following his career for awhile and I will be very sad if he loses. I see him as a future presidential hopeful. He cares about issues that affect young people. Some of his viewpoints dont fit mine but I see him as a refreshing alternative to all the old schoolers. GO FORD!!!

[JerseygirlCT]

24. Can't say I'm a fan

He's far too conservative for me. His opposition to marriage equality and squishiness on women's reproductive rights don't endear the guy to me.

That said, he's miles better than the opposition, and we need the numbers, so I'm certainly hoping he wins. But as presidential material? No, not my cuppa.

[AngryAmish]

22. That is usual

People's hidden racism.

[JerseygirlCT]

23. Why? Because it's been shown that white southerners tend to

poll differently than they vote when race is involved.

If they're asked would they vote for Ford, they'll say yes (not wanting to appear prejudiced), but in the privacy of the booth, vote no.

[Freddie Stubbs]

25. David Duke always did much better on Election Day than

he did in polls.

[Nye Bevan]

28. So 1 in 20 of Tennesseans are racist liars?

That's depressing, if it's true.

[Rowdyboy]

29. In 1989, on the eve of the Virginia govs race, Doug Wilder led by 11%...

The next day, he was elected Virginia's first black governor by 1%. Also, back in the 1980's, Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley was twice the Democratic nominee for governor, led conistently in the polls twice, and lost twice. Americans lie to make it seem they're more open-minded than they really are.

That's why I've never allowed myself to get excited about Ford's narrow lead.