War with Iran.. Is it comming for real this time

[Godai Kyoko]

Back last spring folks were talking about the big Iran invasion of June, last year. I only replied a couple times because I didn't, and don't think the US army wants to fight a war in the middle of a middle eastern summer. I thought it was silly back then. Things are begining to change a bit.

However, the Iranians are doing there latest dance over the nukes with the Europeans and it looks like the debate has reached the point of "We won't permit you to do this!" to which the Iranian's reply is going to be "You and what army?" All the Europeans can do is point to the US army and say "That one over there...."

The Iranian army is big, if mostly working on the principle of throwing enough bodies at the guns to deplete the ammunition to zero, and they did grind Hussen to a halt 12 years ago (Not such a big deal, maybe, but it did show their dedication) and they do control huge chunks of crude.

So, I don't believe in June 15. But on the new moon after next,.... which is March 23, who knows.

[rwenos]

1. Terrain is Much Tougher Than Iraq

Much of Iran is mountainous, and they're expert at defending it, having done so in the face of invading would-be conquerors for centuries.

And Iran has a larger middle class, much tougher than Iraq, and they'll be playing defense against tanks and Apache helicopters, which are much more effective in open country.

Were it to happen, it's got disaster written all over it.

[tatertop]

2. They have one or two goals to achieve

to bring us to our knees.
They will get it done.

[Skink]

4. Until the French get cocky and use Nukes.

:scared:

[tatertop]

5. This will be bad. Very bad.

I am scared, too.

[Godai Kyoko]

8. French missles

as currently configured, can't cross the Rhine. They could build a few, but that would take a while. The Iranians are further along than the French in this regard.

[burrowowl]

15. They can in their

sub-marines. It depends if the U$ lets them through.
Chirac is a Fascist a$$. Never liked the guy.

[Skink]

16. So basically the French can Nuke themselves...

At least O'Reilly's happy.

[Godai Kyoko]

22. I think the target is Belguim.

At least that part where German armies keep coming through. After 1871, 1914, 1940, & 1944 they seem to have got the message that would make a good target.

[nookiemonster]

26. I'm afraid you're right.

Fear is their biggest asset. They know it works.

[Godai Kyoko]

7. The terrain in Afghanistan was tougher yet

That isn't a big deal.

As someone noted up topic, the question is, just how much zeal does the average Iranian have for the regeime? The elections last time were a huge joke, but they did have elections, and there was opposition, so maybe The Iranians will be tougher than the Iraqis. The Iraqis had no desire to die for Hussein. The average grunt in Iran won't be fighitng for a greedy jerk, but for the nation. It might be a tougher nut to crack.

[ArtH]

19. Iran

     Seems to me that any military effort would not consist of
ground forces, especially if the intent is to deny Iranian
nuclear weapon development. It is not necessary to bomb every
potential nuclear site to deny that development. If the
communication and transport networks are seriously degraded it
doesn't much matter what is happening in development terms at
particular sites. Components must be brought together to be
useful.
     It's not an overwhelming practical problem for the US
forces. What is a real problem, and the one thing that might
stay the hand of the Bush administration, is concern over the
outcome politically. 
     However, no matter how counterintuitive it is to say it,
force is respected in the MidEast and fear of Iran is real for
much of Sunni Islam.
     It is all a big mess and a potential bigger one. I hope,
but do not believe the situation can be resolved peacefully.

[Deja Q]

3. Won't happen. You can thank offshoring, oddly, for that.

Iran would simply blow up US interests in the region. The USA isn't a direct threat.

Offshoring all our jobs over there ensures we needn't be attacked here. Unfortunately, it leaves all their systems in a mess and vulnerable, so if they're wiped out, the US will be in trouble anyway. Oops.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Jamison]

9. I don't think so.

The reason I think this is because China has a lot of interests in Iran, especially oil interests. I think if we attacked Iran and disrupted China's supply of oil that China might covertly send weapons to help Iran.

IMO China is the only nation that is stopping Bushco from completely ruling the world.

[BeHereNow]

10. Have you considered the possibility that

China may have negotiated to work WITH the US
on taking over Iran and the resources there?
There are MANY recent economic and banking deals
that would suggest so.
BHN

[Deja Q]

12. Wouldn't surprise me... a war means the end of all...

their corporate leaders working with ours so they survive.

Everything in the news is piddling hyperbole and FUD. Not until after it happens. Anything subjective or speculative isn't worth anyone's time. They want everybody to cower in imminent fear.

And if it turns out a cake is just a cake... well, then we're all baked. I suspect that one way or another we're gonna be toast anyway.

[BeHereNow]

17. Yes, toast is an appropriate description, as in BURNT.

China, no longer the US, represents the largest
consumer/credit card holding population.
Thus, the new bankruptcy and credit card laws here in the US.
Thus, the recently established western/multi national banks
opening for credit card issuing in China.
Thus, the recent Chinese deals with the oil producing countries.

America is over and the multi national corporates have
simply moved on to the next harvest of consumers- the Chinese.

Wake up American.
Your dream has officially become your nightmare.
You are about to learn how the rest of the world has lived
for a long time to pay for your delusions and blind support
of a corrupt corporate empire, all so that you could buy cheap
crap.


BHN

[Deja Q]

11. Bingo. That and how Iran knows where our business is.

Iran will attack India, will attack Taiwan (China hates Taiwan and they make most of our circuit boards), and hell - they might attack the parts of China that our business sect loves the most. It's like hitting your friend's arm to kill a mosquito. Friend doesn't like it, but it still does some 'good'.

Never mind that once such an attack is started, it will quickly escalate.

No. There's no way this will happen. Bush's corporate buddies will ensure it will not happen. It's as simple as that.

[KharmaTrain]

13. Air Power...We'll "Bomb Them Back To The Stone Age"

It's not beyond the Cold War logic of this regime to feel they can bomb Iran into some sort of submission ala Serbia. We'll "shock & awe" those Iranians so they'll just give up and submit to baptisms and throw flowers at us just like they did in Iraq :sarcasm:

Part of war that seems to slip by people is the money that is made by it. Those Duke Cunningham contractors with those cluster bombs and other whiz-bang toys want some place to play with them. They had fun in Iraq but now with our own troops on the ground, those 500 pounders might hurt someone, so now let's find some other place not only to drop them...but then go running to the American taxpayer and scream how this regime will need another 100 or 200 billion in emergency defense spending.

These goons live short term, they have no care about reprocussions of their actions, it's all about making the most now.

[Godai Kyoko]

23. They have neeter toys they want to test.

They have moved two generations beyond the JDAM munition. I saw it discussed on Mail Call. I forget its designation, or I would get a google page for you to look at.

Iraq is winding down. They aren't bringing folks home yet, but they are turning most of the coutnry over to the Iraqi government. It is going to be an interesting six weeks. Will Iran risk the toothless ire of the IEa? Will they risk US Bombing? Will they risk a US invasion? Can Bush pull off another invasion? Does anyone here really want to see Iran, a place run by the likes of Pat Robertson and co really have the bomb? Especially with what is going on with the Danish newspapers? Do you really think any of us here on this board really want the concept of an Iranian nuclear armed sub wandering around the shores of California or New England?

Hard choices and no easy answers time.

[High Plains]

14. I don't see anything happening for awhile.

The US military has its hands full in Iraq.

The diplomatic dance is underway, and that will take awhile.

And I don't foresee any US invasion of Iran. It would be difficult and messy and costly. Much easier to bomb selected nuclear program targets. Then the question is, how would the Iranians respond?

What could they do? Shoot some missiles at our ships? That might invite more air strikes...

Block the Straits of Hormuz? Kinda cuts off their own nose to spite their face, no?

Start fucking with the US in Iraq? Hmmmm...

Send missiles toward Israel? That might invite a response in kind, or worse.

It seems like the Iranians' options are limited, but it also seems like the US would be treading in very dangerous territory if it did do air attacks on Iran. The thing has the potential to go really screwy.

[Ammonium]

18. Remember when Bush said

I'm not sure if anyone noticed it or not but in Bush's SOTU speech he did a bit where he was talking to the citizens of Iran. Now, the last time he did something like that he was talking to the citizens of Iraq and we invaded a few days later. So, when he starts talking to the citizens of another sovereign nation I get scared.


I don't think we'll do anything really. We popular support isn't there right now for another way. The CIA would have to fake hijack some more planes and blow up some more buildings before they have the kind of support for another war. Especially, with 06 elections right around the corner where it is looking bad on the red side of things.

The Israeli's, now they might start shit and then we could just funnel them guns and ammo like the good ole' days. Then the Chinese could do the same for Iran and it'd be like the Cold War all over again.

[lovuian]

20. I hope not but everything indicates that we are...

Evidentally I will quote from Dune

He who controls the spice (oil)
Controls the universe...

and Bush is going to destroy the country which promotes democracy...

thats the plan...

It will backfire but its the plan...

[Strelnikov_]

21. I Do Not Think So

Iran's belligerence is due to our ground forces being bogged down in Iraq. We cannot afford an uprising among the 15 million Shia.

The neocons and the western democracies are going through the motions, playing their role. And all of this does play fairly well into the neocons hands. Do you think we will be pulling out of Iraq with the Iranian threat just next door?

Then again, if bombs start dropping on March 23rd, I won't be terribly surprised.

[Hardrada]

24. Early August 1914

Lord Grey (England) to Foreign Minister Berchtold (Austria-Hungary), "And we hope the hostilities will be of no long duration."

[Imagevision]

25. MSM is reporting they don't believe Iran is a WMD problem for now

expect Iran WMD threat to disappear in days to come.

[Godai Kyoko]

27. The news is not what the MSM reports

And is often the reverse.


Seriosuly, do you think a large country rulled by the likes of David Duke, Pat Robertson and Fred Phelps armed with nuclear weapons is not newsworthy on a constant basis? True, more important stores for some folks, like the love lives of Jessica Simpson and JLo and the latest goof craze like hula Hoops and Mood rings might drown it out for an hour, but really, this is a serouls problem with serious consequences.