The ludicrous notion that a nuclear Iran = "the largest threat"

[LynnTheDem]

Given the ease with which one can deflate the ludicrous notion that a nuclear Iran would constitute "the largest threat" facing the world, it is a cause for great concern that this view has so completely taken over rational debate on the subject. It is of even greater concern when we remember that we are only discussing a potential. But note how a central part of the propaganda campaign works: several months ago, the usual estimate for the time Iran would need to develop nuclear weapons was about ten years. Then it got reduced to five years. Now, people speak as if Iran will have nuclear weapons in the next few months. The unavoidable implication of this tactic is the obvious one, the one that Bush used so disastrously with Iraq: we need to act now. We have to do something now. There is only one word to describe this approach: it is not reasoned discourse -- it is hysteria, pure and simple.

So the question arises: what makes so many people, to be found in all parts of the political spectrum, so willing to fall for this kind of propaganda? Is there something in our general method and approach that makes us particularly susceptible to this kind of hysterical saber-rattling? Are we predisposed to find enemies -- not just your standard enemy, but "the biggest threat to the Republic" and "the largest threat" to the entire world -- when the actual enemy is significantly different in nature and magnitude from the nightmarish cartoon the propagandists offer us?

Walking into the Iran Trap;

A Decision of Policy -- and the Intelligence Won't Matter
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2005/11/walking-into-iran-trap-i-decision-of.html

The Folly of Intervention
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2005/12/walking-into-iran-trap-ii-folly-of.html

Mythic War, and Endless Enemies
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2006/02/walking-into-iran-trap-iii-mythic-war.html

The National Myth that Sustains Us -- and Its Inevitable Racism
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2006/02/walking-into-iran-trap-iv-national.html

The point is not that Iran with nukes is a good thing, or that it's not a current foreign policy issue of importance, it's just ludicrous to think it's "the biggest threat to the Republic." A few years back the frightened bedwetter crowd was freaking out about scary Iraq and now they're freaking out about scary Iran.

The Iran scary boogeyman rhetoric from the Right is to scare voters. Our actual Iran policy, as distinct from the Rovian politics, is a complete muddle. Our ability to conduct airstrikes on nuclear facilities, if that was a desirable and realistic thing to do in some abstract sense, is somewhat hampered by the fact that we have 130,000 troops sitting in a neighboring now-Iran-friendly Shia dominated Iraq where our goal is, in theory, to maintain the peace. We have no serious Iran policy, defined however you want to define "serious," and are unlikely to. What we will have, however, is a serious Iran politics, one timed nicely for the '06 elections. Seeing any of the Iran talk as a serious discussion of policy instead of just another trip on the scary terra train is a mistake. The ability of Serious Hawkish Pundits to encourage a serious Iran policy, whatever that would be, is zero, as we should all know by now. I know there are people who imagine that there are actual grownups in Washington who, with the right prodding, could actually influence events. Sorry, not until the Bush administration is out of office.

Anyway, this is all so ridiculously familiar. Falling into the trap by even bothering to talk about it I suppose. Shrieking "eek! a monster!" seems to be about all the Right is capable of anymore.
http://atrios.blogspot.com/

[TallahasseeGrannie]

1. The way I figure it is

it would be a threat but it is a long way from Florida to Iran.

So I don't worry too much about it.

[LynnTheDem]

4. Worry about bush's good buddy Pakistan.

They're one successful assassination attempt away from tossing nukes at us.

Why doesn't bush push for "democratic elections" in dictatorship Pakistan? See my first sentance.

[blurp]

2. Uh. It IS the largest threat.

Oh sure. Iran is a long way from the USA. But is there any doubt that Iran will use its nukes against Israel? Do you really think everyone would just sit by and let this happen? Is there any doubt about Israel using its own nuclear weapons?

You're looking at a nuclear war in the middle east and a collapse in global oil production.

That's not just a threat to the USA, that's a threat to global stability in general.

[LynnTheDem]

3. ROTFL!!!

Love the spin!

"Iran will use its nukes..."

Ummm...WHAT nukes??? :rofl:

Good gawd, PT Barnum was so correct.

PS; if ya bothered to actually READ the links, you'd see why it's LUDICROUS to think Iran is "the greatest threat". But hey, why read & research when it's so much easier to spew the bullshit, dontcha think?

[breakfastofchampions]

12. What nukes?

The nukes they are in the process of developing.

[LynnTheDem]

16. Gee you sure know a lot more than the experts WOW!!!

Ya better let bush know right away!

IRAN DOES NOT HAVE NUKES. IRAN HAS THE LEGAL RIGHT TO PERSUE NUCLEAR RESEARCH & ENERGY.

Koolaid ain't good for you.

[LaPera]

5. Complete Bullshit...Arab bashing...This is BushCo rhetoric & lies...

you bought...just like Iraq has "Weapons of Mass Destruction"... Where were they, now BushCo is in the Iraqi oil fields and will never leave.

Iran claims are they should be able to have nuclear power for energy for their people, (and they should)...BUT MAINLY: Oil rich Iran wants to change from the Dollar to the Euro for their petro...(That's a huge no-no to the wealthy oil tycoons, who give the orders in this country).

So were going to strong arm Iran with assholes like Bolton in the UN (which is why BushCo wanted him there specifically to fuck with Iran ).

Iran is after all a Sovereign nation as was Iraq and that didn't stop Bush and his lies from illegally invading.



Edit: Spelling

[LynnTheDem]

8. Iran has the LEGAL RIGHT to nuclear research & power...

but funny thang, I've not yet seen a single US "msm" point that FACT out.

[breakfastofchampions]

13. Why should Iran be allowed to have nukes?

When the President of Iran has has stated he wants Israel wiped off the map?

[LynnTheDem]

17. As you asked this same (ridiculous) Q in another thread...

see my response in that thread.

[Mnemosyne]

15. And I doubt you will ever hear it Lynn.

That's why I had to stop watching the corporate media. I believe that each morning Rove sends out the daily talking/spin points.

It was enraging me so much I had to quit watching. My throat couldn't take all the screaming!

In peace and hope,
V

[Mnemosyne]

11. You are right on the nose LaPera. n/t

[Oversea Visitor]

6. Aaaah

You expect Iran to commit sucide?
Come on get real
Iran even if they develop nuke arms would be too underpower to attack Isreal.
Iran cannot win a war against Isreal..... Period

Which logical person will fight a war they cannot win?

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[stepnw1f]

7. You Should Write Science Fiction

Scarey scenario you just conjured up. I suppose anybody with a nuke should be feared then.

Also, I suppose the whole World now has a right to feel threatened by the US, since we are the only country in the World to have used them on another country.

Maybe we should have an all out WWWIII. Hell, everyone has the potential to harm someone in close proximity. aybe everyone needs to die too?

:crazy:

[Mandate My Ass]

9. Omniscience

Just like GWB, another fearmonger who somehow gleans what everyone else's motives/schemes/plans are without a lick of attribution or evidence that any threat exists at all.

Read up on the U.S. opposition to the Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipeline and the recent bombing of "al Qaeda terrorists" in Pakistan and Iran's geopgraphic proximity to the Strait of Hormuz.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060126/wl_sthasia_afp/usindiapakistaniranturkmenistanenergypipeline;_ylt=A86.I1VH3dlDY0MAqQUPLBIF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

Or maybe Iran saw what happens when you have oil, and more importantly natural gas, that is becoming more and more sought after by Asian competitors and could outlast the oil supply.

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0411-21.htm

[Emit]

10. And once again we have the usual players involved behind the scenes

Overview

The Coalition for Democracy in Iran (CDI) is one of numerous pressure groups created by neoconservatives that focus on changing U.S. foreign policy. These include the U.S. NATO Committee, Committee for Liberation of Iraq, and U.S. Committee for a Free Lebanon. In late 2002 Michael Leeden and Morris Amitay spearheaded the creation of the Coalition for Democracy in Iran. Other members include Frank Gaffney, Jack Kemp, Bruce McColm, Joshua Muravhik, Danielle Pletka, Rob Sobhani, Raymond Tanter, and James Woolsey. (1) ... CDI represents just one thrust in a phalanx of neoconservative initiatives and organizations that aim to set the U.S. foreign policy agenda for Iran. Other groups include the Middle East Forum, Project for the New American Century, Hudson Institute, Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, Committee on the Present Danger, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and especially the American Enterprise Institute, which serves as the flagship neocon think tank.

~snip~

Morris Amitay, listed on the program as the vice-chair of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, made mention of his association with CDI. Also presenting were Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kansas), whose sponsorship of congressional resolutions against Iran have been closely coordinated with CDI, American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), and Middle East experts at AEI and other neocon policy centers; Michael Ledeen, who Amitay called the “godfather of JINSA, and who has served as the necon’s point-man on Iran; and S. Rob Sobhani, an Iranian-American who is president of Caspian Energy Consulting and like others associated with CDI is a close acquaintance of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the ousted Shah of Iran (installed by a U.S.-engineered coup in 1953) ... Although CDI calls for greater democracy in Iran, the close association of neocons such as Ledeen and Sobhani with the shah’s son raise concern that this may form part of another U.S. plan to restore the monarchy in Iran. Writing in the International Herald Tribune, Cameron Kamran, an Iranian-American commentator, said: “The Coalition for Democracy in Iran has strong ties to the exiled Reza Pahlavi, the deceased shah’s son, and the Iran Democracy Act would largely fund dissident groups that advocate a restoration of the monarchy.” (3) (4) As it turned out, the initial request for $50 million to fund exile groups was removed from the 2003 congressional resolution, although its cosponsor Christopher Cox noted that funding for dissident groups could be included in future spending bills.

~snip~

To build support for their Middle East restructuring agenda, CDI and other neocon groups repeatedly highlight the repressed role of women in Islamic societies. An extreme interpretation by Rob Sobhani of this argument has drawn angry criticism from students at Georgetown University, where Sobhani is an adjunct professor. They charge that Sobhani has on at least two occasions (one being at the AEI forum in 2003) made the following statement: “There's a young lady here in the United States who is in her mid thirties. She’s a Deputy Secretary of Education in the United States, an American Iranian. That same 30-something in Iran has to prostitute herself to make ends meet.” In a complaint to the university administration, the critics charge: “Mr. Sobhani’s irresponsible and inappropriate statement implies that Iranian women are prostitutes, however competent they might be. His allegation is both false and malicious… His manner of argument uses the degradation of the image of Iranians to that of a helpless, backward people as a tactic to gain support for his political agenda.” (5)

~snip~

In a November 2003 article for the National Review Online, Ledeen argued that the “appeasers” in Congress and the State Department “don't want to know about Iran, because if they did, they would be driven to take actions that they do not want to take. They would have to support democratic revolution in Iran.” Ledeen concludes, “I guess some top official will have to die at the hands of (obviously) Iranian-supported terrorists before the Pentagon is permitted to work on the subject.” (9)

~snip~

Just who are these freedom fighters? Based on statements and the links of CDI principals, they appear to be a diverse and unlikely coalition of monarchists, arms dealers like Ghorbanifar, and the Mojahedeen Khalq Organization (MKO), a guerrilla group based in Iraq. (10)

http://72.14.207.104/search?q=cache:tfohBv7I_BIJ:rightweb.irc-online.org/org/cdi.php+Coalition+for+Democracy+in+Iran&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=3

So, is this their new 'Chalabi' for Iran?

Washington’s likely plans to restore the Iranian monarchy are foolhardy

The United States is planning for “regime change” in Iran, and it may have already picked the new rulers of that country.
The form of government would be a constitutional monarchy, with the head of state being Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was deposed in the 1978-79 Islamic revolution. The Bush administration apparently has a handpicked American “plumber” ready to go in Iran, much like Ahmed Chalabi in Iraq. This is Sohrab “Rob” Sobhani, an Iranian-American associated with the neoconservatives in Washington. With Reza Pahlavi as Shah, the 40-ish Sobhani would presumably be prime minister or president. His promoter is American Enterprise Institute Freedom Chair Holder Michael Ledeen, who has written and lectured obsessively about regime change in Iran. Ledeen was reported by the Washington Post to be one of four advisers in regular consultation with White House strategist, Karl Rove. Ledeen and Sobhani recently established the Coalition for Democracy in Iran (CDI) to promote this regime change.

~snip~

Rob Sobhani, who has known Reza Pahlavi since childhood, was actually born in Kansas. His doctorate, completed in 1987, dealt with Iranian-Israeli relations from 1948-88. He became a specialist in energy policy. He has had his finger in many pies in Washington, including consultation on the construction of an oil and gas pipeline across Afghanistan. Well-connected politically, he ran twice for the US Senate from Maryland as a Republican. Although his heritage is Iranian, he is far from being an expert on Iranian society, politics or economics. His move to the Washington area put him in close contact with his old friend, Reza Pahlavi.

~snip~

Of equal importance, Sobhani also sees secularization of Iran as beneficial for Israel. This is not surprising, since Israel and Iran had excellent ties before the 1978-9 Islamic Revolution. The Iranian Jewish community is the oldest continuous Jewish community in the world. The community is as prominent in diaspora as in Iran, with members in powerful positions in the Israeli government and in American life, particularly in California. Elimination of the clerical regime in Iran would eliminate support for Hizbullah. It might even lead to renewed trade between Tehran and Tel Aviv.

Ledeen, Sobhani and Morris Amitay, former director of the principal Israeli lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) joined forces at the American Enterprise Institute in a seminar entitled The Future of Iran, in which they called for regime change. AIPAC has indicated support for the restoration of Reza Pahlavi to the throne, although they wish to remain in the background, as reported by Mark Perelman on May 16 in the New York Jewish Daily Forward. Perelman quotes one AIPAC official as stating that “the Jewish groups are telling Reza that they will give him private support and help arrange meetings with US officials,” Since Sept. 11, 2001, Sobhani has appeared widely in the media, urging the US government to support an internal revolution in Iran. His appearances can be seen as growing endorsement of his possible role as a future leader in a post-coup Iran, as his image is honed by the media-savvy Bush administration.

William O. Beeman ([e-mail]) teaches anthropology and is Director of Middle East Studies at Brown University. He wrote this commentary for The Daily Star

http://parstimes.com/news/archive/2003/opinion_wbeeman_6-03.html
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Here's an excerpt of an interview with Ledeen with FrontPage Magazine, where he is urging people to support Iranian-American broadcasters in California:

FP: Let us suppose that tomorrow you are brought into Bush's inner circle regarding Iraq and the War on Terror. The President asks you what concrete steps he should take next. What do you say?

Ledeen: Support the democratic revolutionaries in Iran and the Iranian-American broadcasters in California. Now, not tomorrow. That is the key to the entire war, in my opinion. There will never be peace in Iraq so long as the mullahs are in power in Tehran, and their favorite Assad reigns in Damascus.

Then tell the Saudis that they have to shut down the global network of radical schools and mosques, or we will make great trouble for them in the Shi'ite regions of the Kingdom (which happen to be the major oil producing regions as
well).

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:EFJlLGYsXdEJ:www.frontpagemag.com/articles/ReadArticle.asp%3FID%3D11512+American%2Bbroadcasters%2Bin%2BCalifornia%2BMichael%2BLedeen&hl=en

And, I'm assuming and still trying to confirm, that the Iranian-American broadcasters in California is the same group Ledeen refers to in the above-quoted article is the same referenced here:

Pahlavi also cut a backroom deal by garnering political support and funding from the US Congress for private Iranian-American satellite companies in California and US government sponsored external radio programs such as Radio FARDA, geared to reprogramming Iranians under 30 years of age. He was very careful to mention that there should be "one degree of separation"--no royal hand involved so to speak--and that American taxpayer's funds should be given to foundations that in turn can give the money to the satellite broadcasters. Not surprisingly, Senator Sam Brownback, a Republican from Kansas, introduced an amendment on April 8, 2003, that would provide $50 million (US) to an Iran Democracy Foundation, the purpose of which is to broadcast "democracy" into Iran. According to reports, the language in Brownback's amendment has its origins in the Pentagon and is almost the same as that used in the Iraqi Liberation Act that the US Congress approved in 1998.

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:GJQm8IHPVLgJ:www.counterpunch.org/stanton04222003.html+Iranian-American+broadcasters+of+California+Reza+Pahlavi+&hl=en
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Here's a similar article, same subject as one excerpted above, with a little different detail: http://www.sundayherald.com/34272

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The author, Beeman, of the above-quoted commentary and Ledeen go after each other about Beeman's claims. Ledeen accuses Beeman of slander.

Here:
http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=0463dd4d30f0c09d40c36ae421c44e6f


_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
And, finally, here's an excellent article on the matter by Tom Barry from Right Web, recapping the whole thing, and bringing in the regime plan change:

Is Iran Next?
The Pentagon neocons who brought you the war in Iraq have a new target
By Tom Barry

It now appears that Feith’s Office of Policy, which was creating dubious intelligence rationales for the Iraq war, was also establishing a covert national security strategy for regime change in Iran—most likely through a combination of preemptive military strikes (either by the United States or Israel) and support for a coalition of Iranian dissidents.

~snip~

In early 2002, Leeden, along with Morris Amitay, a former AIPAC executive director as well as a CSP adviser, founded the Coalition for Democracy in Iran (CDI) to build congressional and administration support for Iran regime change. AIPAC and CDI helped ensure passage of recent House and Senate resolutions that condemn Iran, call for tighter sanctions and express support for Iranian dissidents.

The CDI includes members of key neoconservative policy institutes and think tanks, including Raymond Tanter of the Washington Institute for Near East Affairs (WINEA)—an off-shoot of AIPAC—and Frank Gaffney, president of CSP. In the ’90s, Feith served as the board chairman of CSP, whose slogan is “peace through strength,” and where Woolsey currently serves as co-chairman of the advisory committee. Other neoconservative organizations represented in the coalition by more than one member include AEI and Freedom House.

Rob Sobhani, an Iranian-American, who like Ledeen and other neoconservatives is a friend of the Shah’s son Reza Pahlavi, is also a CDI member. CDI expresses the common neoconservative position that constructive engagement with the Iranian government—even with the democratic reformists—is merely appeasement. Instead, the United States should proceed immediately to a regime change strategy working closely with the “Iranian people.” Representatives of the Iranian people that could be the front men for a regime change strategy, according to the neoconservatives, include, the Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi (who has also cultivated close ties with the Likud Party in Israel), the Iraq-based guerrilla group Mujahadin-E Khalq (MEK), and expatriate arms dealer Ghorbanifar.

~snip~

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:tKWkcq8SXicJ:www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1114/+Coalition+for+Democracy+in+Iran+Michael+Ledeen+Morris+Amitay&hl=en