Regarding Iran:Some Clarity, "NO MILITARY OPTIONS"! A Must Read....

[leftchick]

Mr. Cirincione is the person who should be on the Sunday Talk shows. He is a lone voice of reason regarding Iran and Needs to be Heard instead of the warmongering insane neo-freaks condi, rummy and the rest....

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17922

No Military Options

By Joseph Cirincione
Published: January 19, 2006

<snip>

Do they reflect the thinking of senior officials closely aligned with these political currents? No official has indicated that they do. But just one year ago, Vice President Cheney seemed to be thinking along exactly these lines when he told radio host Don Imus on Inauguration Day, "Iran is right at the top of the list." Cheney came close to endorsing military action, noting that "the Israelis might well decide to act first and let the rest of the world worry about cleaning up the diplomatic mess afterwards."

There is no need for military strikes against Iran. The country is five to ten years away from the ability to enrich uranium for fuel or bombs. Even that estimate, shared by the Defense Intelligence Agency and experts at IISS, ISIS, and University of Maryland assumes Iran goes full-speed ahead and does not encounter any of the technical problems that typically plague such programs.

This is not a nuclear bomb crisis, it is a nuclear regime crisis. US Ambassador John Bolton has correctly pointed out that this is a key test for the Security Council. If Iran is not stopped the entire nonproliferation regime will be weakened, and with it the UN system.

But it will have to be diplomats, not F-15s that stop the mullahs. An air strike against a soft target, such as the uranium conversion facility at Isfahan (which this author visited in 2005) would inflame Muslim anger, rally the Iranian public around an otherwise unpopular government and jeopardize further the US position in Iraq. Finally, the strike would not, as is often said, delay the Iranian program. It would almost certainly speed it up. That is what happened when the Israelis struck at the Iraq program in 1981.


.... much more


I also heard him on NRS's Fresh Air and he made me feel just a wee bit better about an Iran war. Here is the link....http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5196002

The New Brinksmanship: Iran's Nuclear Threat
by Terry Gross



Joseph Cirincione is an expert on nuclear and biological weapons. CEIP

Fresh Air from WHYY, February 8, 2006 · Iran's attempts to restart its nuclear program in defiance of the International Atomic Energy Agency is a game of nuclear chicken, says Joseph Cirincione, the director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Cirincione specializes in defense and proliferation issues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the senior associate and director of the Non-Proliferation Project.