March 20 to 26, 2006: Iran-USA, beginning of a major world crisis

[AGENDA21]

The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020, LEAP/E2020, now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.


An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

- on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

http://newropeans-magazine.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3463&Itemid=85

[stop the bleeding]

1. interestiong, bears more watching n/t

[HereSince1628]

2. The 29th is the new moon, wouldn't an attack likely happen on the darkest

night?

Of, course I don't know when moonrise/moonset is in Iran, but I do think if we are sending in manned subsonic aircraft it's gonna happen in the deepest darkest part of night.

[enigma000]

4. the 29th is also the date of a solar eclipse

The path goes right through Turkey.

http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/SEmono/TSE2006/TSE2006.html

[HereSince1628]

6. Oh. I didn't know that, sounds like there might be some moonlight

to avoid in Iran on the 29th.

[PATRICK]

3. Now you would think

that the Bush backers in the higher realms of finance and power would not want to share Macbeth's fate. In a sense they are rendered impotent to help themselves by defeating the civilization that could have put some measure of sanity, accountability and responsibility to the fore.

The inevitability is pretty clear, except in the majority of our cheerleader news reports. The magnates who control the money will lose control of their people and lands in most Muslim nations. That's a big domino and control or gaming or any such large scale catastrophe is a massive joke. greed and power and entitlement creates enough denial among men of inferior morality to enable it to happen, but they can do nothing to stop the consequences except run and hide.

The demonstrations about the anti-Islamic defamations are calling the bluff which for Bush tests the submissiveness of regimes and peoples he is about to plunder. Unfortunately, our moronic administration is incapable of dealing with the reality of such proof against their agenda. All that happened in Iraq was inevitable and desirable, just not the scale. Nothing can make the insulated wonder appreciate scale until the army storms the oval office and tears him loose from under the desk.

So why are we all marching forward into their catastrophe? That is just as big a question as to what makes scoundrels like our usurpers tick.

[jean]

8. Is this what it will take? "Nothing can make the insulated wonder

appreciate scale until the army storms the oval office and tears him loose from under the desk."

What is the army waiting for?

[PATRICK]

15. Not within their thought processes

On the other hand, ironically, we have implanted those very thought processes into every foreign officer schooled in the School of the Americas. But no fear, the Rumsfeld purges have front loaded the pentagon with even more imagination starved toadies. The real violent power to control or overthrow the system lies elsewhere and the faster they can privatize the military the safer they will be to conduct their own corporate War of the Roses someday.

Also the entire opposition has been blocked away from even imagining giving legitimacy to even the concept
of retaking the government, or removing clear and present dangers from a dangerous internal treasonous threat. The veneer of legitimacy so assiduously presumed and worked upon by the disastrous Dems, the sycophant corporate media and the hijacked GOP works directly to minimizer that very threat. Intended or no, all things point to the fact that since the people are NOT being won over sufficiently, more and more undemocratic measures and repressive, darkly defensive barriers will pop up like weeds in a vacant lot.
The way our military is, and as a mirror of the failures in politics and among the misinformed public they simply cannot rouse much less adopt strategies they can't even make succeed on foreign soil.

[okieinpain]

5. hahahahahahaha... man now this is some funny sh** they are

actually looking for someone in our country to make a hard decision.

For individual dollar-holders, as for trans-national corporations or political and administrative decision makers, the consequences of this last week of March 2006 will be crucial. These consequences require some difficult decisions to be made as soon as possible (crisis anticipation is always a complex process since it relies on a bet) because once the crisis begins, the stampede starts and all those who chose to wait lose.

[petron]

7. Crisis is what they want

My guess is that BushCo has some how determined that the outcome and consequences of a military attack on Iran might be more easily tolerated then the crash of American petrodollar hegemony.

In other words, BushCo has calculated that it's probably more profitable (in more ways then just money) to start a potentially apoplyptic war then to allow Iran to create a market that buys and sells oil in Euros instead of dollars.

Sounds familiar doesn't it? For those of you not paying attention, this was the actual basis for invading and occupying Iraq, IMO. http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

[Earth_First]

9. Within 80%

You know, call it tinfoil hat theory, however when I see individuals predicting catastrophic geopolitical events with percentage points, there is motive involved. Call me cynical, but the last 5 years have developed quite an inate cynic within. I could be wrong, but I'd like to know who 'newropeans' is and what their publication primarily focuses on.

[lovuian]

10. Yes this is definitely a Economic showdown and Political

Showdown

[robertpaulsen]

11. Hmm...never considered this aspect before.

From the OP link:

Decoding of the event “End of publication of the M3 macro-economic indicator”
The end of the publication by the American Federal Reserve of the M3 monetary aggregate (and that of other components)<3>, a decision vehemently criticized by the community of economists and financial analysts, will have as a consequence to lose transparency on the evolution of the amount of Dollars in circulation worldwide. For some months already, M3 has significantly increased (indicating that « money printing » has already speeded up in Washington), knowing that the new President of the US Federal Reserve, Matt Bernanke, is a self-acknowledged fan of « money printing »<4>. Considering that a strong fall of the Dollar would probably result in a massive sale of the US Treasury Bonds held in Asia, in Europe and in the oil-producing countries, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the American decision to stop publishing M3 aims at hiding as long as possible two US decisions, partly imposed by the political and economic choices made these last years<5>:
. the ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt
. the launch of a monetary policy to support US economic activity.
… two policies to be implemented until at least the October 2006 « mid-term » elections, in order to prevent the Republican Party from being sent in reeling.
This M3-related decision also illustrates the incapacity of the US and international monetary and financial authorities put in a situation where they will in the end prefer to remove the indicator rather than try to act on the reality.


How about that? The secrecy of this misadministration is about to spread to our economic policies in a BIG way!

[screembloodymurder]

12. It's been discussed here in the Economic Forum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x18859

[robertpaulsen]

14. Thanks for posting another source. Sounds like we're fucked!

Sorry to be glib, but it's the only way I can stay positive nowadays. Economically, we're headed for the brink. Politically, we're past the brink. Militarily, well, maybe we won't attack by March 26. But if Israel replaces Sharon with Netanyahu, all bets are off.

[seemslikeadream]

13. kick

:hi: