Breaking Down Electoral Map - July 27 (Importance of NH!)

[Hissyspit]

Run time: 07:08 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axQI2L9s3ZA   Posted on YouTube: July 27, 2008 By YouTube Member: Views on YouTube: 0   Posted on DU: July 27, 2008 By DU Member: Hissyspit Views on DU: 2448

 
Audio a little messed up.

[bkinsd]

1. Who is this guy?

So, why should I trust that this guy (whoever he is) knows what the hell he is talking about? What are his credentials?

[iamthebandfanman]

2. you need credentials

to make guesses?

[bkinsd]

4. Evidently Not

People have the right to post whatever they want. But as for me, this election is way to important. I am simply asking for this persons credentials so that I can determine if I should take him seriously or if he is just blowing sunshine up my ass. I would rather spend my time listening to people who know what the hell they are talking about.

[davidnc76]

3. Hmmm

What credentials does one need to make predictions? Look at all of the major media outlets... I would trust this guy the same as I would trust Chuck Todd or Zogby.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. This seems to be the worst case scenario for Obama.

[desktop]

6. This is a good analysis, partisan DU's should get realistic

This election is very close and it's a game of swing states to get the win. I get a chuckle out of all the posters who declare it will be a slaughter and Obama ahead by 12 points. It doesn't matter if he's ahead by 12 if all those people are in blue states. Look for McCain to take the Minnesota governor as his VP, that could do it for McCain right there. If Obama makes a mistake or the GOP brings something out about Obama that they have been hiding, that's all it takes for a McCain win. Certainly McCain can screw up to, I hope and expect he might. But the overconfidence from DU's is hopefully not shared by all, because this election could go either way, and if republican partisans are really fixing electronic voting machines, well we all say what happened in 2004.

[AlinPA]

14. It will be tight. The R's can really sling the mud and get their social issues going,

with some flags and bibles.

[psychmommy]

19. lot of ifs there desktop.

phrigindumass does analysis weekly. check out his #'s. he uses an assortment of polls. i am not going on ifs. wait until the polls reflect obama's world tour and mccain's series of flubs. what if obama messes up? please. what if the press shows some of McCain's bloopers, gaffes and senior moments. what if the country wakes up and realizes that we are in a depression? what if more of the criminal truths come out about the current administration, with whom mccain is so closely aligned? what if we all sit on our behinds and say woe is me? what if we all got off of our butts and did something to make the gap even larger.

[Hawaii Hiker]

21. No one knows Pawlenty outside Minnesota, & Pawlenty isn't going to help

that dope McBush in MN. anyways....

www.electoral-vote.com

"Tim Pawlenty Gov. of Minnesota Unknown nationally and Dems will win Minnesota even with him on the ticket"...

[Bosso 63]

23. I agree, Pawlenty barely won re-election, not to mention

the fact that if he were to become VP, his Lt. governor would then replace him. Minnesotans do not want Carol Molnau running the state, as she was the head of the department of transportation when the 35W bridge collapsed, and forced to step down from that position.

[Hulk]

7. It seems impossible that it can be this close....

...but remember folks...this is a nation of morons. A lot of folks just don't care that we are waged in a blood sucking war that never should have been started, an economy that is passing every benefit on to the corporate moguls at the expense of the middle class and forgotten poverty class, and who gives a rat's ass if 50,000,000 Americans have no health insurance or are under insured? As long as the right wing has their asses covered, they would spit on the rest of the citizens of this "great nation".

We deserve what we get folks. I thought Kerry was going to trounce the dip shit last time too, and when the dip shit got elected again, I almost choked.

Corporate America leads us around by the nose, and apparently we like it.

[Karl_Bonner_1982]

10. Too identical to the 2004 outcome...I don't trust it

Seriously, what about VA, MO, NC and FL? All the swing states that went Bush in 2004 are fair game. I'm not saying Obama's going to win all of them, but it would be an uphill battle for the GOP to hold on to all of them either.

If McCrap wants to have any chance, he needs to fight for a couple states that Kerry won last time around.

[AlinPA]

13. As usual, it will be Guns, Gays, God and Flags. 'murcans' main issues. nt

[Fovea]

8. Looking at the trends in the news

and how they affect opinion, McSame had a week that looks (using references he will 'get') like the Hindenburg running into the Titanic because the crew had the Spanish flu.

None of this is reflected, I suspect, in the poll numbers fruit saladed together to create the rosey scenario from hell for McSame.

Unless you believe in the return in one dollar gasoline, total victory in the middle east by Israeli led forces, and that due to our generosity and wisdom, the grateful world will forgive our national debt-- then you can't believe this scenario, sculpted from viscera and fudge, will reflect reality on the ground in November.

We are still heading into a ditch at high speed, and the executive branch is going into November giving the one finger salute to congress and the American people each and every day. The status quo is total madness.

What will make it saner, and Republicanism viable by November?
How many troops will be home by then?

It's July, and we have had our first Hurricane. I predict we will get to see if Brownie did indeed, do a heckufajob.

It doesn't matter if the press is on McCain's side, the news is not.

[TheFarseer]

9. not even going to mention Montana?

Obama is up 5% in the latest Rusmussen poll.

[darius15]

11. Obama has lots of options

to win the election, and NH is definitely not the most important state.

I'd say Colorado & Virginia are.

[Cosmocat]

24. Michigan ...

is an important keeper ... For all the initial handwringing about PA, the polls show that McCain has A LOT of work to do if he is going to get the win here ...

Also, if he gets Indiana with what looks to be a good bet in Iowa, where McCain has already thrown in the towel, that is something like a 17 point electoral swing ...

If BO gets VA, he will be president, hands down ... I think he has a shot, but it is going to be CLOSE there, Webb/Allen close ...

[stlsaxman]

12. This is unlistenable.

[Hissyspit]

15. The important parts at the beginning and end are not messed up, so try clicking ahead.

This guy strikes me as slightly conservative and I wouldn't be surprised if he is just using the McCain-leaning polls, so take it all with a grain of salt. I think he may be right about New Hampshire, though.

[stlsaxman]

18. I got that feeling too- McCain leaning guy.

personally i hope he's dead wrong about Missouri.

[phrigndumass]

16. I believe the narrator is giving too much weight to historical data

In the end, we will see that this was not a comparable election cycle to that of Kerry and Gore. The narrator is using the "big state model" of election cycles past, and that's not our strategy this year.

Republicans will be weak this year in states they haven't lost in a generation. And Obama is polling well in some of these places.

Besides the blue states shown in the video, we could possibly add Nevada, Montana, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and/or Ohio and maybe one of the Dakotas.

But one thing seems sure, we definitely have a lock on all the Kerry states, and the narrator doesn't dispute that.

[sakabatou]

17. Aww, the video's gone :(

[Frisbee]

20. I've been keeping an eye on this one...

http://electoral-vote.com/

[Waiting For Everyman]

22. On HuffPost - Amazingly Good Poll Analysis for Obama

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/27/obama-mccain-matchup-blow_n_115232.html


He may already have enough electoral votes, according to one group-view. Or not, according to a different one, of course.

Still, it was encouraging to read an analytical reason for optimism. I saw that Gallup was up another point today too. Hope it keeps climbing.

I did also see yesterday somewhere else (I forget where), a poll showing that most Americans don't believe that drilling will solve our energy problem. It was in the 60% range I think. That should "bode well" for Obama. Maybe people are quietly not buying some of the McC schtick?

[happygoluckytoyou]

25. i predict in 2008 a wealthy person will die near water.....

[ronnykmarshall]

26. It's gone.

What's all fuss about?