John Kerry's Online Communications Director posted this to Kerry's blog today

[ralbertson]

http://www.johnkerry.com/2008/2/6/barack-obama-crosses-the-50-yard-line

Barack Obama Crosses the 50 Yard Line
February 06, 2008 - 09:46 AM | by Brian Young


Momentum is one of the most overrated aspects of contests. That’s not to say it doesn’t exist; it does. But the importance of it is continually overstated in all aspects of competition, from sports to politics.

There’s a saying in baseball: momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher. You may have won 6 straight and feel like you are on a roll, but you’re throwing out a chump starter against Josh Beckett, you don’t have momentum going into the next day. That’s just reality.

So it is with politics. Momentum is real. When you win, people talk about you in good ways, which exposes the best of your message to more people, which creates excitement, etc, etc. But it’s only as good as the next contest. If you are fundamentally behind in that next contest, you may not be able to catch up, and your “momentum” suddenly seems to disappear. But that’s just because it wasn’t nearly as strong a force as people thought it was.

Which brings us to this primary season. The chaotic nature of this primary season isn’t really chaotic at all. The beginning of this primary season went across states where each of the two Democratic candidates had clear advantages. Obama had a great Iowa organization, and he was from neighboring Illinois. Clinton had a massive well of support in New Hampshire and the support of the Shaheen machine. Clinton had support from the institutional party in Nevada plus a deep well of support among Hispanics. Obama had the overwhelming support of the African-American community in South Carolina. Sure, hindsight is 20-20, and the NH and NV races were very close, but the fundamentals in each race favored the eventual winner.

But last night, Barack Obama broke that trend. He began to play on Hillary Clinton’s side of the field.

It showed in some individual states, mostly MO, DE, CT, and NM (no matter who wins the final vote in NM by a hundred or two). But, more globally, February 5th, by luck or design, was Clinton’s day. The makeup of the primaries and caucuses was almost perfectly designed for her. You had the machine states of the northeast in NJ, MA, and NH; a neighboring state of CT that gets much of its media from NY; a clump of states bordering Arkansas; the Hispanic-rich Southwest; and then some caucuses sprinkled elsewhere. Caucuses are supposed to put a premium on organization and networks (and they do), and the clear belief among most observers was that Clinton would have the strongest organization by far. And all of the other states are right, smack-dab in the middle of Clinton’s demographic or geographic wheelhouse.

This was supposed to be coronation day. But something happened on the way to the coronation.

Barack Obama grew an organization that dominated the caucus states. He put pressure on Clinton in the northeast, even picking off CT and DE. He poached the largest of the border states in MO. And he fought her to standstill in the southwestern state of New Mexico. He didn’t completely collapse her bulwark with wins in NJ, MA, and CA, but that would’ve been the end of things if he had. Clinton still has a strong campaign, so that was very unlikely.

But Barack Obama’s is now stronger. He has crossed the 50-yard line and started to take the fight to Clinton. Now, with a string of states more friendly to him (caucuses this weekend, VA-MD-DC next week), he can begin to wear down the Clinton campaign. He has a larger activist organization by far, and he is beginning to put some distance between them in the money race as well. And he’s gaining mind-share all the time among the American people.

Now the terrain is much more friendly for Obama. The states are better for him, and he’s starting to assert some control. This is a tough, hard-fought campaign between two heavyweights, so the normal narrative of momentum and collapse just doesn’t fit. It’s all about the slow establishment of control, and right now, Obama is moving forward much more than Clinton.

[IndyOp]

1. Thanks for the post. That helps put things in perspective for me.

:hi:

By the way, this is my very first post in the Obama forum. I've been lurking since it is safer in here than in GD:P. So far, I've supported Kucinich, Gore, and Edwards and I've moved over to the Obama camp since Edwards opted out of the race.

[Luftmensch067]

2. Welcome, IndyOp!

It is pretty friendly and positive here! Glad to see you. :-)

[IndyOp]

3. Thank you... I like your Kerry avatar! (n/t)

[Luftmensch067]

4. And I like yours

:-)