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All Obama has to do is win Pennsylvania and it's over. But can he do it?

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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:04 PM
Original message
All Obama has to do is win Pennsylvania and it's over. But can he do it?
I have my doubts, since Pennsylvania isn't much different than Ohio. If he wins there, it's over for Clinton and everyone knows this. Even with my doubts, however, he will have an advantage he didn't have in Texas and Ohio -- the ability to campaign JUST in Pennsylvania. The problem with what happened yesteday is Obama had to shuttle back and forth between the two states. It didn't help he had to overcome double digit leads by Clinton in both states, but he still managed to do that, even with not spending his entire campaign in one state.

Now, though, he can spend a bulk of his time campaigning in Pennsylvania, where polls show Clinton's lead at single digits. If he can win there, it's over and Clinton will be forced out. If he loses Pennsylvania, then things still favor him, but it gets tricky.
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. Go there and talk to people, in small rallyes as well as big ones.
Obama has always shown his ability to connect when people speak to him. He has to show people that, contrarily to what Rendell and co would want them to believe, he is experienced enough without being tainted by DC. This takes contact and he has the time for that (more than one month).
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politicasista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #1
8. That's how he won Iowa and SC
Those are good ideas you mentioned too.

I would also add that although he can still run a clean campaign, he has to start taking HRC to task on her experience and be more clearer about his healthcare plan. The U-word (universal) hurt him somewhat in Texas with voters. I was listening to Michael Baisden, there was a caller that said she voted for HRC because her healthcare plan was "universal" and Obama's plan was only stated as "affordable."

And just be himself. :)
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Bryan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 02:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. I'm optimistic
I don't think that the Clinton campaign has suddenly stopped being the massively wasteful bureaucracy that the Atlantic Monthly has been describing, just that they found a top-down strategy that happened to work: blanketing targeted states with negative ads while sending the candidate herself on a charm offensive focused on the national media (Nightline, The Daily Show, SNL, The Early Show, The Today Show), who still find her endlessly fascinating.

The Obama campaign's strengths-organizing, responsiveness, and the candidate's ability to form a bond with large audiences-are ones that the Clinton campaign can't match or necessarily even counter (I'm still flabbergasted by the stories of the stupid "Hillocopter" rallies they held in Iowa).
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FedoraLV Donating Member (226 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 03:54 AM
Response to Original message
3. He?
We. :)

Yes we can.

This campaign is about all of us and the America we want to see. If we want to see what all of us together could do in eight years and how we could transform this nation under Obama's leadership with a Democratic Congress then ...

Travel to volunteer for the campaign
Donate
Call voters
Call everyone you know in the state and talk to them
Donate to ObamaCycle
Do anything else you can dream of that is positive, productive, and beneficial

We are the ones we have been waiting for.

-FedoraLV
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Kukesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. Nice post and Welcome to DU!
I'm currently in the throes of recovery after our Ohio debacle; I need some time to heal, but I'll recover and help wherever I can.

I loved this: "We are the ones we have been waiting for."
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
4. The Obama campaign is not expecting to win Pennsylvania, though they are working
to do so.

Here is a great video in which Tim Russert reads an Obama campaign memo that reveals what they are expecting:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAPkoqW-yWo

:hi:
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K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 10:00 AM
Response to Original message
5. He's going to have to ramp up attacks on her. It
fills me with sadness that she has forced a transcendent campaign to stoop to her level, but there it is. Obama has two events scheduled in WY tomorrow, and he is guaranteed a win in MS. That will help with some positive news coverage. I was glad to see he has highlighted her demeaning statement about MS.

Then its on to PA. I imagine he is hunkered down with his advisors, mapping out a new strategy. I'd like to see one good attack per day from his campaign that HRC has to answer or the media has to cover. Keep her scrambling, like she did him. There's not much else she can throw at him that she already hasn't, but he has a warehouse full of ammo.

I hate it, but he has to do it. Even if he keeps PA within 5 pts, he stays ahead. Then he has multiple states he can win after that and perhaps one or two he can take from her. He still comes out ahead, but he HAS to force media coverage and he has to get his face and voice out there. Otherwise, those SDs will continue holding back. I'm terribly disappointed his group of SDs have put off endorsement.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
6. He can, but he has to fight like hell and out campaign Hillary.
No more just one or two big rallies a day. How did Hill win in Ohio so big? besides lying? She campaigned night and day. Obama has to start doing this again too. It will be tougher becuz PA is a closed primary so independents can't vote.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
7. Also, in PA he needs to counter attack her on NAFTA
after all she points to her firstladyship as part of her 35 years of experience and so she needs to be tied to the record (good or bad) of that administration. NAFTA is touted by Bill as one of his great achievements. So tie it to her. She has said many positive things about NAFTA in the past--the Obama campaign needs to get a ad up with her saying some of those things. It could help in PA and Indiana.
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marlakay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 12:14 PM
Response to Original message
9. He is behind there and I wonder how many
racists are in that state...their own governor said that, of course he is for Hillary...but he could be right...and then no matter how many ground game or negative ads you run that won't change a racist.

Darn it all, I was hoping this would be over...
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Kukesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Yep, racism will rear its ugly head, just like it did in Ohio. n/t
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