Obama is not making any stops in Kentucky--smart or not?

[book_worm]

I guess it doesn't make any difference because polls are indicating another big win for Hillary (maybe not quite as lopsided as WVA), I only hope we can counter it with a big win in Oregon or we'll have the stupid MSM spewing again about how Obama can't win white working class votes. I am glad to see him campaigning already in SD and Montana--I think he should win those, but we can't take anything for granted.

[IndyOp]

1. Do you know of a poll more recent that Rasmussen's from a week ago?

That is the last poll presented at Real Clear Politics - before Edwards' endorsement. I hope that Edwards' endorsement and the Obama campaign's work on the ground in Kentucky will close the gap. I'll be on the ground in Kentucky with 4 friends on Sunday.

Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ky/kentucky_democratic_primary-638.html#polls

[book_worm]

2. there's a new ARG poll out which shows a crushing defeat in KY for Obama

but ARG is lousy.

[IndyOp]

4. I found the ARG poll...

ARG had Clinton winning in Indiana by 8% and she won by 2%

ARG had Clinton winning in West Virginia by 43% and she won by 41%

So they were on target about West Virginia, but not Indiana.

Right now ARG shows Clinton winning Kentucky by 26% - so it would be amazing if she won by less than 20%.

:(

[Inuca]

7. About IN

she actually won by less than 1% I think. I saw the final SoS results on Kos a while back, and the vote difference was I think between 11000 and 12000.

[IndyOp]

8. The difference is slightly over 1% according to the Indiana Secretary of State website...

But as usual Todd Rokita (R-Asshole) doesn't provide numbers for write-in candidates, etcetera.

I noted the night after the election that the difference would be less than 2% -- I worked really, really hard on the ground in Bloomington.

Hillary Clinton 645336 (50.56%)
Barack Obama 630925 (49.43%)
Total 1,276,261

Difference 14,411

[Inuca]

14. I remember your posts

just before the primary. All I could do (and really felt the need to) was to go for the last to week-ends to Terre Haute and do whatever I could to help there. My first time doing something like this, but I just could not stay at home any longer.... I am in IL, so there was not much to do here :-).

[grantcart]

3. Obama spoke to 8000 in Louisville

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/hqupdate/gGBdxv

[KSinTX]

5. I think it could be a mistake

but he's one man (not his three-headed opponent) and has to use his resources wisely. I would like to see him there to say, 'you may not be with me, but I'm with you.' Wishful thinking and given the real limitation of time, he's doing the right thing. Heck, he's BEEN doing the right thing right along. :hi: Howdy!

[book_worm]

9. I like that, "You may not be with me, but I'm with you." good line.

[sandnsea]

6. He is moving past her campaign

If he goes there, it puts her and her campaigning in the media. It gives her credibility. If he just focuses on the three states he's got left, then it gives the impression of moving on to the GE. This is the exact thing to do. And Obama is winning big with white men in Oregon, it's still the old people and women who won't budge off Hillary. I am surprised she is getting as much of the vote as she is though.

[KSinTX]

10. I don't believe she's getting all that much of regular Dem votes

I think it's newly-minted Dems (AKA disaffected Republicans) who truly want to leave the GOP but just aren't quite used to the new playground. I think we have to realize these are folks who sincerely can't stand Bush and his legacy but this, this integration thing over here - with blacks, hispanics, gays and all - may be a bit hard to swallow after years of bashing them in their old party.

[sandnsea]

11. Not in Oregon

Our Republican has to support gay rights, environmental protection, getting out of Iraq, to even have a chance to retain his seat. He's actually running "change" ads, while attacking both the Dem candidates in the primary, it's too funny. It's our old union diehards that won't let go of Hillary, old Dems, I've got no clue why.

[KSinTX]

12. Good lord, sounds like MA back in the day

(See Romney v. Kennedy debate where Romney out-liberalled TED fer chrissakes)

Well, Oregonian sandnsea, you've just got me plain stumped. Because y'all have now managed to out-liberal Romney out-liberalizing the "Liberal Lion." Oh. My. God.

Seriously, though, don't you think this has got to be very hard for a lot of people. The cloak of inevitability didn't appear overnight and an awful lot of folks hitched their futures and fortunes on the Clinton brand. They did NOT anticipate this and the grieving process must go through all five stages. On some bizarre level, I am starting to truly feel pity for these people. This must be hitting pretty hard.

[sandnsea]

15. I'm sure that it is

I can understand some of the women, who have maybe been invested in Hillary and waiting for this for years. And then I suppose the ones who think just get Bill in there and fix the economy, and don't care about anything else. It always amazes me how many people think all politicians lie, you can't have honest government, all that kind of thing. I suppose some of them probably just roll their eyes at the young idealists and prefer to stick with what they see as a proven commodity. I would feel more sorry for them if they expressed some disappointment in her campaign shenanigans. But between claiming victory in FL & MI, the lawsuit in NV, and some of the other election maneuvering they did, I lost all sympathy for her supporters a long time ago.

[Luftmensch067]

17. I may have said this here before

But my septugenarian dad in OR was for HRC in the early part of the primary because of that very thing -- not daring to trust someone new and thinking at least she had experience. But he is a good, good Democrat and he did change his mind because of her campaign tactics, finally. He has voted for Obama already on his mail-in ballot. My sister, a few years younger than I am, liked Obama, but liked Hillary equally. Again, she changed her mind because of the way HRC's campaign operated and has been solidly Obama for a while. She will vote for him, too.

Some HRC supporters do have what they see as valid reasons, but the ones who think, I believe, will come round. At least in Oregon! :-)

Really hope you get rid of Smith in November, too!!!!

[sandnsea]

18. good to hear

That's two!

I really think Smith is destroying himself. He starts his campaign with attack ads of all things, one of the key things we want to change. :crazy: I think Merkley has a better chance than Novick, but either way it looks good. I also read that the goober over in eastern Oregon might have a fight on his hands too. It would be incredible to have Dems every which way you look. Funny thing is, I haven't lived in a competely Dem run state since... wait for it.... MONTANA!! lol. Yep, when I first moved to Montana in 1980, it had two Dem Senators, Dem Congressman, Dem Governor, and I think the State house was all Dem too. If they could switch their Congressman, they'd be all Dem as well. We just need to figure out how to keep future generations from making the same mistake of trusting monied interests.

[Heather MC]

13. I think he should go play B-ball with the Kentucky Wildcats

[MBS]

16. I'm surprised, as Howard Fineman ( a Kentucky native)

said that Obama had a good ground game in Kentucky, and implied that it could well go better than West Virginia.