Bush is banging the war drums on Iran - when will he attack?

[peacebird]

Poll question: Bush is banging the war drums on Iran - when will he attack?

[Lost-in-FL]

1. Me thinks Georgy boy just

want to use the Nucs. He wanted to be a war pResident and now he want to be one of the few presidents to use a nuc weapon.

[peacebird]

2. me too.....

he hasn't gotten to "play" with his big guns yet, and he won't leave office without nuking someone

[OKNancy]

3. Seeing that March is next month... when it doesn't happen

maybe I'll kick this thread.

It's all bluster. It ain't gonna' happen.
He's cried wolf far too often.

[peacebird]

4. yes - but Iraq was all drum banging just like this... and he needs to get a shiny new war going

to stop all that disrespectful talk in the congress and boost his poll numbers. It's worked twice before - don't you think he will go for the "third time is the charm"?

[Independent_Liberal]

12. I agree.

For some reason, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't know why, I just don't. I tend to be more optimistic than most people around here.

[zonkers]

5. When poll #'s dip into the 20s.

[Ian David]

8. When Bush's approval rating is 23%. 2/3 = .666 n/t

[zonkers]

9. I'm reading the Metaphysical Club. It's about Oliver Wendell Holmes,

William James, Charles Sanders Peirce, and John Dewey and their pragmatic ideas that shaped modern life in America. Most awesome book. And it really hits me right in the gutt what worthless, dangerous dumbshits our leaders are today. And its not just Bush -- it is so many of them.

[spinbaby]

6. If it happens at all, it will happen soon

It will have to happen before Congresss gets it together to pass something opposing it.

It will have to happen before anyone really gets a chance to examine or question the "evidence" against Iran.

It will have to happen before things fall utterly and totally apart in Iraq.

My guess is that if they don't hit Iran in the next couple of weeks, they won't hit at all. Just my uninformed opinion.

[Ian David]

7. Bush will attack Iran on March 7th at 6:00 AM Local time

March 7th is the 66th day of the year.

[annabanana]

13. When it's 6am in Tehran, what time is it in NY?

Primetime?

[Ian David]

14. Prime Time (8 PM Eastern) is 3 AM in Iran. n/t

[DKRC]

10. While he's outta the country - March 8th - 14th?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17033782/

That way he can be safely away if we're being hit with nucs in return.

[PoiBoy]

11. QM2 sails into the Persian Gulf.. docks at Dubai on

March 11, 2007...
http://www.qm2.org.uk/itinerary.html


RMS Queen Mary 2
The Worlds Largest, Longest, Tallest, Widest, and Grandest Ocean Liner
http://www.qm2.org.uk/index.html

[Ian David]

15. Bush won't attack unless The Daily Show is on hiatus. Seriously.

Any time Der Chimpenfuhrer does something truly, colossally, catastrophic... he waits until Jon Stewart is on vacation.

Go back and check if you don't believe me.

[scarletwoman]

20. I don't have cable. When is Jon Stewart next on hiatus? (nt)

[scarletwoman]

16. Because the plans call for air strikes, the most likely time is during a new moon,

when the skies are dark.

The next new moon is Feb. 17 -- so strikes could come as soon as the end of this coming week. The propaganda campaign has definitely been ramped up into high gear just in the past few days. Will it reach the peak required to provide cover for an Iran strike in just the next week? Possibly, although I suspect that they would prefer that there be an "incident" of some sort to set the attack in motion.

Can they manufacture the necessary "incident" in time for the February new moon? I don't think it's out of the realm of possibly. It could involve some significantly heinous event in Iraq -- what with the troop "surge" and the increased "clear and hold" operations in Baghdad, it won't be that difficult to point to some inevitable and particularily horrific flash point as being the fault of Iran.

Another possible scenario involves the two carrier groups now in place in the Persian Gulf (with a 3rd nearby placed on "short notice" alert) -- as well as the sundry minesweepers and other support craft that have also been deployed there. It's another kind of set-up for another sort of "incident". Nothing would actually have to happen -- Gulf of Tonkin, anyone?

If we're looking at March instead next weekend, the new moon in March falls on Monday, March 19 -- 2 days before the Spring Equinox, perfect for "new beginnings". George & Laura will be traveling in South America from March 4 - 14. -- see this thread: george and laura plan South American tour in March

Just from the point of view of scriptwriting, what a lovely, emotionally jarring (as in throwing the U.S. public well and truly off-balance, and therefore unable to react coherently) sequence of events it would be for bush* to return to Washington to a huge (trumped up) crisis after a week and half of spreading his message of "democracy" in the southern hemisphere. He will, of course, have no choice but to "resolutely" "decide" to act.

Generally, April is seen as the latest possible date for the attack on Iran to commence, by those who have been following these developments closely. There are some factors that argue against bush* waiting that long; among them the slight possibility that by then, enough Democrats in Congress will somehow muster up the courage to put up some legislation that forbids him from widening the war without specific Congressional approval. However, I don't plan on holding my breath for this.

Another factor that would seem to indicate sooner than April is the fact that Russian will be delivering its first shipment of nuclear fuel -- Russia vows to keep schedule for Iran nuclear plant -- to one of Iran's nuclear-powered electricity generating plants sometime in March. If bushco intends on striking that location, they really ought not to wait until there are actual nuclear materials there. Israel would be in the way of the radiation that would be released, and it seems unlikely that the neocon/Likud architects of bush*s ME policy would allow Israel to be so blatantly endangered.

And yet another factor is a possible mobilization of the international community to draw a line in the sand and unequivocally declaring that military aggression against Iran is unacceptable -- but, like our Congress, this (sadly) can not be counted upon.

This is what we are down to, folks. Either just a week (give or take a few days), or just a little over a month. If the war hasn't been started by April, there may yet be hope. Which is why bushco will want to get it on sooner rather than later.

sw

[Swamp Rat]

17. Fall 2007... "You don't introduce new products in August." - Andrew Card.

[scarletwoman]

19. I think sooner, sorry. They're just going to do it, support for it doesn't matter.

Yes, they're doing the heavy propaganda right now, but all they need is enough kool-aid drinkers to muddy the issue of justification while they go ahead and do what they damn please and present us with a fait accompli.

I hope you will read my post above and let me know what you think.

sw

[Swamp Rat]

21. I think that's too soon

March is more likely than February, but I doubt it will happen at such an early date. Only two carrier groups are in or near the Persian Gulf right now. They will need a lot more firepower in the region before committing to air strikes.

The drum beat is getting louder, though... and Cheney is about to go under oath... and they have wagged the dog before. :shrug:

[scarletwoman]

22. Dear Swampy -- I don't WANT to be right about this. But I've been obsessed about it for many months.

It's practically all I've been paying attention to for a long time now. So I've been doing a ton of reading month after month. It's all that reading that drives my conclusions.

My biggest worry right now -- and I mean wake-up-in-the-middle-of-the-night freakout worry -- is that this is coming down REALLY fast. Faster than anyone can really mobilize against it. Which is the whole point of them wanting to make it sooner rather than later.

My spidey sense is just totally on overload -- I'm willing to concede that I've simply lost what few remaining shreds of sanity I may have preserved in my old age -- but damn! Every cell of me is on high alert... :cry:

sw

[Swamp Rat]

23. Sorry to hear that

I'd like to offer you a cup of herbal tea and a warm hug to make you feel better. :hug:

I am not happy about this either, as I am again having "duck and cover" nightmares after decades of not having those types of dreams. :(

In some ways, it does make sense that they would start this war at this time of year, because of the weather and for political reasons (the hot water they are in right now), but our military is just not ready for an all-out offensive right now. Not all of our forces are in the region yet and it will take more time to set it up. We can't just lob ICBMs at them. There is the region's oil supply to secure, but no way in Hell to truly secure it after such a massive bombing campaign. I doubt if those controlling the petroleum industry want to lose everything over night.

:hug:

[scarletwoman]

25. The way I see it, they're not just evil, they're delusional too. So they really are planning on an

air war to be enough to take down Iran as a regional power. That it will throw Iran into enough disarray that its government will fall and will be unable to mount any significant defense.

Bushco is counting on NOT needing ground troops, just like Israel was thinking it could kill off Hizbullah in Lebanon with air power alone. These ideologues don't learn from their mistakes, they just double down -- figuring they just didn't put enough muscle into the first go-round.

So this time it will be real muscular -- nukes ("bunker busters") are on the table. You KNOW the chimperor is just SALIVATING to drop a nuke before he leaves office.

And the thing about oil that needs to be kept in mind is that it's not how much oil you can SELL, it's about controlling who gets to BUY it, and how much is AVAILABLE to sell.

Choking off the oil supply is a GOOD thing for bushco -- it's a way of holding the rest of the world hostage. Like, play ball with us or else.

Thank you so much for the hugs, you are such a beautiful soul! :loveya:

sw

[Imagevision]

18. One certainly can count on Bush doing shock n awe on Iran before leaving office...

[Imagevision]

24. Bush will bomb Iran and we will wake up to it as; "Breaking News" piece....