Rothenberg To Dems: Aim For 60 Senate Seats By 2010

[RedEarth]

Stuart Rothenberg's new column in Roll Call has some big-thinking advice for the Democratic Party: Aim for a 60-seat majority in the Senate by 2010. "A strong ’08 could put the party in sight of a 60-seat majority in 2010, and that filibuster-proof majority would change the rules of the game on Capitol Hill," Rothenberg says. Though Rothenberg acknowledges that such thinking is "odd and premature," he makes a pretty good case that Dems have reason to be optimistic about the cycles ahead:

• Of the 67 Senate seats up in the next two cycles, Democrats currently hold only 27, while Republicans must defend 40.

• Republicans have tough seats to defend in 2008 in Colorado, New Hampshire and Maine, plus potential retirements in Virginia, New Mexico, Nebraska, Mississippi and North Carolina.

• Rothenberg sees few openings for Republicans in 2008 — most of the Dem seats up for election are in blue states. To regain control, their best scenario would involve holding all their seats, plus defeating Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and keeping the Presidency for a 50-50 tie.

Rothenberg's conclusion: "The 2008 presidential results and unknowable events over the next few years could change the political equation completely, denying Democrats an opportunity to keep their majority, let alone grow it to 60. But given the makeup of the three Senate classes, party strategists would be foolish not to be thinking about the arithmetic even now."

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2007/feb/12/rothenberg_to_dems_aim_for_60_senate_seats_by_2010