Oh Crap the Rudy Gambit just dawned on me

[Perky]

The conventional wisdoms had been that Rudy can't win southern primariies and this will not win the nomination.

California has been talking about moving its prinary up significantly in the schedule. If that happens Rudy couldcamp out ther avoid Iowa and NH and even soutgh Carolina and colud jump to the head of the pack with a big win in CA.

[TwilightZone]

1. After Kerry's surprise win in Iowa in '04, I doubt that anyone will skip Iowa.

In the overall scheme, it doesn't mean much mathematically, but it means a lot from a momentum standpoint.

[Perky]

5. Iowas will be about beating or not beating expectation on the dem side

Vilsak should win
Obama oight to finish second
Edwards ought to finish third.

eVERYONE IS GOING TO BE FUNNING FOR CLINTON because of the IWR.
Hillary is going to have real problems if she does not finish in the top three because she will not win in SC or NH or Nevada. No momentuum means money dries up in a hurry.

[Gabi Hayes]

2. and exactly where has St. Rudy been for the last week or so?

where's my passport?

[AlCzervik]

4. he's here in my state stinking up the place and trying to make inroads

with California repubs.

[theguvnorgc]

3. Thw sickening little fucker...

has been here all weekend, and is gonna be here for two more days.... your thesis is a plausible sounding one...

[David Dunham]

6. Guiliani will win in NH (he's a northeasterner). IA is another question.