If religious right runs a third party candidate, would he get more votes than GOP candidate?

[yurbud]

Poll question: If religious right runs a third party candidate, would he get more votes than GOP candidate?

While we should mostly be thanking God that these guys are going to be spoilers and shoot more holes in the GOP sinking ship, there is a parallel with the Democratic Party: take away the religious right, and all that's left of the GOP is Poppy Bush and a couple of his chums at the country club.

In the same way, if progressives left the Democratic Party, all that would be left would be Rahm Immanuel and other corporate sycophants hoping for jobs as the legislative equivalents to the cabana boys at Poppy Bush's country club.

The point is, the religious right is the actual voter base for GOP, so how much would they have left without them?

[AX10]

1. 5%-10% of the total vote would go to the third party candidate.

[rucky]

3. If it's Romney or Rudy,

I'd say as much as 10.

[ingac70]

4. I live among fundie crackpots in a red state...

I'm quite confident a third party fundie would snatch away at least half of the GOP's votes.

[Jed Dilligan]

2. I'd say, realistically, both parties would split 50/50

once abandoned by their bases. There would even be some cross-migration of conservative Dems to the religious party, which would probably be closer to the Dems on a number of social welfare issues. The new progressive party might also draw off some of the more libertarian republicans. Each split would be a good thing for America IMO.

[Pyrzqxgl]

5. Who the hell knows, I don't & don't care,

cuz the DEMOCRAT is gonna whup both their asses!

[yurbud]

6. if religious right party gets more votes than GOP, there might not be a GOP next time

[ShadowLiberal]

7. I could see them taking a lot, but not more then 10%

[gatts]

8. Situational

Depends on the situation. The "religious right" really isn't one gigantic block vote; there's a lot of different attributes, sometimes contradictory, that get in the way.

If it's say, Hillary versus Thompson, well, a third party candidate wouldn't even get notice. Thompson isn't the 'conservative ideal', but he at least can pretend to fit the bill, and there are enough conservatives voting anyone but Hillary that they wouldn't bail if the alternative was the other Wicked Witch.

On the other hand, if it's Hillary versus Guiliani, I doubt Guiliani's polls will stay above 10% after the first time photos go up on CNN of him dressed in drag and doing the hula. If the conservatives wanted a big government, nanny-state, take-from-the-rich, pro-abortion, antigun candidate, the only reason to stick with Guiliani over Hillary is if they really wanted the President to wear a dress. A strong enough third party candidate, such as Thompson or Hunter, combined with good spin of the Iraq War, could result in a Presidential race where the Democrats and an Independent party were the main racers.

Doubtful, but stranger things have happened.