Modern Polling, Hillary's alleged lead

[ChairmanAgnostic]

Poll question: Modern Polling, Hillary's alleged lead

the ABC poll claims that 55% of democrats want her. first, foremost, instead of anyone else.
20% for Barack, and a measely 13% for Edwards.

I don't believe it. My personal experience with liberals, moderates, conservatives, all of whom call themselves voting democrats does not comport with those numbers.

I do NOT believe it.

What do you think?

[burythehatchet]

1. the reason polls are useless at this stage is because right now

name recognition is the chief driver.

[MNDemNY]

3. When dose "name recognition "stop being the main driver? Really

[burythehatchet]

7. I wish I knew. my point is that on a comparitive scale,

it is a bigger factor now more so than later.

[high density]

34. When the results come in from Iowa caucus & the NH primary

After what happened in the 2004 primary season, I refuse to put any faith in these BS polls.

[AZ Criminal JD]

24. If that is true

No one else is going to get that much name recognition in the next three months.

[burythehatchet]

39. precisely, friend. now you see how it works. The experts

want to pick our candidate for us, so they will.

[liberalnurse]

2. Your Poll contributes absolutely nothing to a discusssion.

This is like a Limbaugh poll.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

8. can I share in his ad revs, please? Just selling his 'scripts would be OK.

Is this a push poll? I dunno. I've written far worse ones before.

[Cha]

4. abc-

brought to you by disney..the people who didn't want us to see F9/11.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. It Shows A Bigger Lead Than The Others But By Not As Much As You Would Expect

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

[BlooInBloo]

6. Well if she's not in the lead, then Clinton-haters have NOTHING to complain about...

... Can't have it both ways.

[msongs]

9. YOU'D BELIEVE it if your favorite not-hillary candidate had those poll numbers :-) nt

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

10. “In matters of conscience, the law of majority has no place.” Gandhi

I wouldn't care if her lead was 99.9%, she still won't get my vote.

[Uben]

11. Look people

.....she doesn't have that big of a lead amongst liberals, in fact it's probably closer to a tie amongst liberals, she may even be behind. But, she garners a slew of votes from those closer to the middle (of which I am one). What you see in the polls is probably close to reality when you factor in those who are fed up with the republicans and are looking for something closer to the middle. She is, no doubt, the closest of the leading candidates to the middle. That is her strategy, and it appears to be working for her, just as it did for her husband.

Our ultimate goal is to put a democrat in the whitehouse, 60+ senators, and as close to a two-thirds majority in the house as possible.

I know some of you cringe at the thought of Hillary in the Whitehouse, but would that not be better than any republican? I personally think she is the right person, at the right time, but that is a highly subjective view. I will vote for the dem nominee regardless of who it is. I like all the candidates, albeit some are a lot more lilberal than I am comfortable with, but I will still vote for the nominee.

There is still a lot of time for things to change. Remember, Slick Willy's come from behind win? Support your candidate as much as you can, but when it comes to the general election, vote for the dem nominee, please!

[TwilightZone]

12. Your personal experience is irrelevant.

As is mine. One's personal worldview is simply not indicative of the voting public. I'm not sure why that's so difficult for people to understand.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

13. my personal experience is important. as is yours.

of minor importance, I agree, but each vote, each opinion, each experience, - they tend to add up. I DO NOT believe this ABC poll. Period.
Much like I DO NOT believe anything that Bush or RIce say in public. I think I am on safe ground there.

[TwilightZone]

14. Important, yes. Indicative of the rest of the country, no.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

20. ever been personally affected by a push poll?

answer one test question wrong, and they hang up, thanking you.

ABC I suspect, did that here.

[Rage for Order]

58. Why aren't the other candidates out there debunking the poll?

You'd think Obama, Edwards, Kucinich, Richardson, etc would be telling everyone who would listen that the poll is biased or inaccurate if they thought it were so. The fact that they are not doing so tells me all I need to know.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

60. I suspect that after the first primary, showing Hill in 3d,

they won't need to say anything.

Remember, it is far worse for a candidate to show a huge lead, then lose, than to have steady growth.

[CTyankee]

17. Thank you! I've had YEARS of my own great "experience" that prove NOTHING in presidential campaigns!

Polls are usually very scientific these days, if only not to be an embarassment when everything eventually comes out.

Let's all calm down. I am waiting for a GE poll that shows me where the candidates are. Until then, I'll hold to my favorite, John Edwards. But if it turns out that HC is the one to lead and beat the Repubs then I am with her all the way. This country cannot withstand another Republican administration.

EOM.

[Bitwit1234]

15. If you could you show those pollesters you put your candidate

and we all know who that is...at the top. too bad America doesn't want him.

[leftchick]

16. It is total bullshit. have you seen her donations from ALL major media?

The US system is so corrupted by corporate donations and manipulation we will NEVER have honest polls. I do not know one democrat here in NC who even likes her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Then How Do You Explain This?

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/719795.html

[leftchick]

27. apparently I don't know them

I quit working for my local democratic organization 2 years ago because they were all "DEMS DO OR DIE"! Never looking at the compromises of the corporatists like clinton. Clinton relies on these idiots to get elected along with other nefarious means. Much like bushco 2000!
Same tactics, different party, or not. :eyes:

[Cameron27]

19. I think that just because you believe something,

doesn't make it real. The fact that your personal experience disputes the poll results isn't enough to prove that the polling numbers are wrong. Try again.

[ruggerson]

21. I think you're out of touch with reality n/t

[ChairmanAgnostic]

22. ah, the Hillarians jump in with both sTriangulatory deFeet.

thanks. I was hoping for a response.

[BlooInBloo]

23. Shouldn't matter to you. She's not in the lead, remember?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I'm Curious

Is it your position that all the pollsters are involved in this conspiracy because I haven't seen one published poll in the past several months that have Hillary Clinton's opponents within smelling distance of her?

And if that's the case don't you think one of the candidates would commission their own poll to disprove and discredit the specious ones?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. It wouldn't work. All the voters are emeshed in the same conspiracy.

Hillary has planted supporters by all the phones... millions and millions of them.

It's a vast middle-of-the-road conspiracy.

[Cameron27]

33. I think ruggerson's an Edwards supporter,

and I'm leaning towards Obama. Try again.

[Pastiche423]

28. We are being had AGAIN!

Where are all of these so called Hillary supporters? They are certainly not on DU. Every time a poll is taken for who you support, her name is always on the bottom.

I have yet to hear one person in rl say they are supporting her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Are You Serious?

The members of DU are self selected...

[BlooInBloo]

31. It's actually EXACTLY like how freepers think THEY'RE the mainstream! ROFLMAO!

The universe appears to revolve around the individual - each and every one of them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Yet The Same People Have No Problem Believing The Polls That Show Bush* With A 29% Approval Rating

And slavishly watch Bush*'s poll as they contine to plummet...

[BlooInBloo]

36. It's a la carte belief. Take what you like, leave what you don't.

[Pastiche423]

38. Your point is?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. My Point Is A Poll Of DU Members Only Tells Us What DU Members Think

To infer more than that would be a lapse in logic...

[Pastiche423]

44. And that is what I stated

Btw, where did I infer more?

[mondo joe]

45. What makes you think polls of DU would resemble polls of dem primary voters?

And if you don't think they would resemble each other, what is your point?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Here's Your Quote

"We are being had AGAIN! Where are all of these so called Hillary supporters? They are certainly not on DU. Every time a poll is taken for who you support, her name is always on the bottom.

I have yet to hear one person in rl say they are supporting her. "

-pastiche423


You are implying there are few Hillary supporters at DU, in your universe, and the entire universe...

[Pastiche423]

49. What is all of this "inferring" and "implying" shit?

Is it not true that when DU is polled on presidential supporters, Hillary is always close to the bottom?

In my real life, it is quite true that I know no one that is supporting Hillary. I do, though, have a bet going w/a republic that Hillary will NOT be our nom.

I said jack shit about any universe.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. We Will Make This Easy

Did you or did you not imply that Hillary Clinton has little support among Democrats?

and if you did not how do you square that contention with assertion:


"We are being had AGAIN! Where are all of these so called Hillary supporters?"

-pastiche423

[Pastiche423]

51. I meant everything I stated in my 1st comment

Is that clear enough?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. No

This is a waste of my time...

Have a nice evening...

[Pastiche423]

53. Glad I could oblige

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. Your Welcome I Think

DSB

[Individualist]

29. ABC: The network that aired "Path to 9/11"

No credibility!

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

32. What was Dean polling vs. Kerry and company around this time?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Dean Had Nine Percent At This Time

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[B Calm]

40. So what will be her downfall? Her phony laugh or

the secret of her being the president of the Young Republicans at Wesley College, or her being a lawyer for Walmarts getting out to the populace?

[ozone_man]

42. Your poll is in February 2004.

At this time four years ago, Dean was leading by a large margin. Surely you were around in 2003? Here is one in December, a few months from now. ;)

"The poll showed that 25 percent of registered Democrats support Dean as their nominee, with retired Gen. Wesley Clark in second with 17 percent."
http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/08/elec04.prez.gore.dean/index.html

So, we've got our war in Iraq. Hillary will mean eight more years of war.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. You Need To Scroll Down

Dean was at 9% in a poll concluded on 10/1/03

[ozone_man]

48. This one?

Dean is at 31%, peaking apparently in ABC poll 12/18 to 12/21. Closest competetion was no opinion, then Gephardt at 9%.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Dec. 18-21, 2003. Registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents (from a total sample of 1,001 adults). Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.


"If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?" Names rotated
12/18-21 12/10-14 10/26-29 10/9-13
% % % %
Howard Dean 31 20 17 17
Richard Gephardt 9 6 14 14
Joseph Lieberman 8 12 13 10
John Kerry 8 7 8 11
Wesley Clark 7 7 14 14
John Edwards 5 2 5 2
Al Sharpton 4 7 7 3
Carol Moseley Braun 4 3 3 4
Dennis Kucinich 2 2 2 2
Other (vol.) 1 - - -
None (vol.) 5 12 5 9
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1 2 1 1
No opinion 14 20 10 13

From a 9/10 - 9/13 poll, Dean leads 15% to Gephardt 14%.

9/10-13
%
Howard Dean 15
Richard Gephardt 14
Joseph Lieberman 21
John Kerry 14
Wesley Clark 6
John Edwards 3
Al Sharpton 5
Carol Moseley Braun 4
Dennis Kucinich 2
None (vol.) 3
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 2
No opinion 8
Bob Graham 3

So, Dean peaked in December with 31% nationally. One may also argue that the 2004 field was a better one than 2008, more to split the vote up. But we all remember the seven dwarfs. And then there was Dean.

Hillary is peaking early. Once buyer's remorse sets in, things can change. Or if Al Gore steps in. :)

[rucky]

47. We don't have much else to go on. n/t

[0rganism]

55. take it for what it is: "592 Democrats and leaners nationwide"

The poll's accurate enough for this stage of the campaign, and doesn't seem out of line considering she's consistently led in the ABC polls up til now -- although it is a significant step up.

The interesting part is Obama's 7-point drop since the last poll. Perhaps it's an indication that he lost some ground in the recent MSNBC debate where he showed up with a headcold; then again, I'm not sure how many open-minded people actually watch debates. (I thought Edwards had a stronger showing than HRC there anyway)

It's also apparent that the "minor" candidates have not made any headway up to this point. I'd expect a few of them (Biden, Dodd, maybe Richardson) to cut bait within the next two months, as campaigning can be expensive, time-consuming, and downright hellish. The ones who have points to make and nothing to lose (Kucinich, Gravel) will probably stick around to the bitter end.

[illinoisprogressive]

56. Not buying it at all. Look at the polls for the past 3 months and tell me they are normal.

[illinoisprogressive]

57. Mark Penn's partner, doug Schoen, works at Rassmuessen polling

[BenDavid]

59. The main thing is HRC is ahead...Simple as

that.....Obama announced first and HRC had not made an announcement and HRC was still leading him early on. When he made the big speech in Illinois early on, HRC maintained her lead. Thus far Obama has not made the case.....Time is not on his side, as well as Edwards.....Now the lead increases....Why? Fifty-seven percent of Democrats think she's the candidate with the best chance to win the White House.

Ben David

[KharmaTrain]

61. National Polls Mean Nothing In State Primaries

Each state is different...different issues, different people and different number of delegates. That's what counts.

I've done my share of polling and the numbers change every time I go out or start calling. One day candidate A could be on top, the next time it's Candidate.

These numbers are used by the chattering class like the odds in a sporting contest...and has little merit on the overall delegate counts that will determine who the nominee is. Even if a candidate wins 100% of the vote, there are "at large" delegates who represent the party aparatus who aren't binding to either the polls or the vote...thus let the reader beware.

If you choose a candidate by how well the "poll", don't bother to vote. We're looking for the next leader of this country, not a winner of American Idol.