"Howard Dean Now Clear Democratic Leader in National Poll"

[NashVegas]

Let's take a look out the rear window, shall we?

Does anyone believe today's polling numbers will hold?

ROCHESTER, N.Y., Dec. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Howard Dean has established a
strong national lead over all other candidates for the Democratic candidates.
While the selection of the Democratic candidate will depend on the Iowa
caucuses and primary elections in New Hampshire and many other states, the
former Vermont governor has pulled ahead of all other candidates among
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide.
The Harris Poll(R) finds that Dean is now the preferred candidate of 21%
of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, with a strong lead over
Senator Joe Lieberman (10%), who is in second place, and all the other
candidates.
These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 993 adults, of whom
393 were Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, surveyed by telephone
by Harris Interactive(R) between December 10 and 16, 2003.
In the two months since an earlier mid-October poll, Dean has increased
his share of the vote from 11% to 21%, while Senator Lieberman has seen his
share decline slightly from 13% to 10%.
Below Lieberman on this list, four candidates are bunched together,
General Wesley Clark (7%), Congressman Richard Gephardt (7%), Al Sharpton (6%)
and Carol Moseley-Brown (6%). Senator John Kerry, who was once regarded by
some pundits as the strongest candidate is preferred by only four percent
(4%), with Senator John Edwards (3%) and Congressman Dennis Kucinich at the
end of the pack.

TABLE 1
2004 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES HEARD OF
(Among Democrats and Independents)
"Which of the following Democratic presidential
candidates have you heard of?"

Base: Democrats and Independents

-------------------------------- October --------- December 10-16
---------------------------------All Democrats ----- All Democrats and
-------------------------------- Independents ----- Democratic-
--------------------------------------------------- Leaning Independents
-------------------------- % ------------------ %
Joe Lieberman------------ 81 ------------------- 85
Howard Dean-------------- 58 ------------------- 76
Al Sharpton --------------- 70 --------------------70
Richard Gephardt---------------- 68 --------------------67
John Kerry -------------------- 63 --------------------65
John Edwards-------------------- 50 ------------------- 58
Wesley Clark ------------------- 53 --------------------52
Carol Moseley-Braun--------------44 --------------------43
Dennis Kucinich -----------------30 --------------------27

NOTE: October 2003 poll did not separate the direction the Independents'
political leanings.


TABLE 2
2004 Democratic Presidential Candidates - First Preferences
"And which one of these would you prefer to
be the Democratic candidate?"
(Among Democrats and Independents)

Base: Democrats and Independents

--------------------------------- October ------------ December 10-16
-------------------------------- All Democrats ------ All Democrats and
--------------------------------- & Independents ----- Democratic-
----------------------------------------------------- Leaning Independents

------------------------------------- % -------------------- %
Howard Dean -------------------- 11 ------------------- 21
Joe Lieberman ------------------ 13 ------------------- 10
Wesley Clark ------------------ 12 -------------------- 7
Richard Gephardt --------------- 8 -------------------- 7
Carol Moseley-Braun ------------ 5 -------------------- 6
Al Sharpton -------------------- 5 -------------------- 6
John Kerry --------------------- 10 -------------------- 4
John Edwards -------------------- 4 -------------------- 3
Dennis Kucinich ----------------- 3 -------------------- 1
Not sure ----------------------- 26 --------------------34

NOTE: October 2003 poll did not separate the direction the Independents'
political leanings.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. Thanks for posting this, it's good for people to have a little perspective.

[Toots]

2. Then pragmatism took over

I think this time Pragmatism is up front and there will be no huge shift from early Primary states..

[Yael]

3. LOL!

I am sorry, I don't mean to laugh. Your post just cracked me up. :)

[blondeatlast]

4. I remember so well--which is why I think it's all very amusing. nt

[NashVegas]

5. Yup

It's also why I am refusing to get behind any candidate this early in the game (that and all the rancor we went through here on DU).

[Myrina]

6. The machinery - so obvious now - couldn't allow a Dean presidency ...

... look at what we've got, even with a "Dem" majority in the House and Senate --- still no actual progress on a progressive agenda for this country. More butt-kissing for Dimson and his ludicrous policies of endless war and mayhem.

Our Dem "leaders" "keeping their powder dry" and still hiding behind the "keeping America safe" meme. :puke:

The two major parties are owned by the same mega military conglomerates and only separate their policy stances by small degrees.

After witnessing some of the bullshit we signed off on during this session, nobody will ever convince me otherwise.

[papau]

7. Good point - 90 days is a couple of lifetimes in politics - much can change - and

Richardson and Obama have moved up - and Dodd and Bidden and DK are getting more name recognition.

It is a long way from being finished.

Clinton is entering the media tear down phase, where they are determined to have a close race and they pull out all the guns to tear down the front runner.

Throw in Obama's better ground game (but remembering that Dean had a great ground game in Iowa) and Iowa and NH history of last minute turning away from poll leaders, and it will be interesting right up to Feb 6 - when we have the results of the semi-national primary.

[msongs]

8. your contention may well be invalid....

at this point in 03 Dean was an outsider unknown person supported by a core group of active people who were against the iraq fraud. He was the only democratic candidate against the illegal immoral iraq fiasco that I recall. he had concrete and identifiable plans, goals, and proposals for many other issues as well.

this year, clinton is touted as the leader and she is extremely well known by most Americans. Edwards is also relatively well known after his run in 2004. obama fills the role of the unknown by most people candidate, though he is most definitely a washington insider.
The rest of the contenders in 03 were also relatively unknown people.

the situation in 07 is vastly different than the situation in 03

Msongs

[Ninga]

9. Good take, similiar but not exactly the same. Next debate Oct 30th. Important or not?

[havocmom]

10. I don't believe today's polling numbers are accurate

:rofl: