|
the biggest issue in the whole climate change issue is attempting to predict the unpredictable
in highly complex systems, of which the earth's "climate" - the temperature and movement of the water and gases that blanket its surface - is one of the most extreme examples humans have tried to model (the big bang beats it out) any of a number of subsystems can reach the "tipping point" - a layman's term from going from convergent to divergent and then the entire model needs to be re-examined.
The interactions of such factors as ice cover, ocean floor topology, vegetation cover, etc. all serve to create this delicate balance of oceanic currents and atmospheric currents. It is remarkable that the system managed to stabilze as it did - look at our two sister planets. Mars lost its liquid and most of its gaseous cover. Venus heated up to 900 deg f with a thick cover of noxious gases.
In its history the earth has spent long periods in relatively stable conditions other than that under which humans civilization developed. Periods of extreme cold, with ice cover over most of the continents; warm periods when huge reptiles thrived...
like the path of a stream of water running down your windshield in a rainstorm, the global climate is more likely to change than to stay constant.
Humans have cavalierly opted to figuratively just throw shit into the fan, and will now suffer the consequences. All the arguments that it might have happened anyway are pointless. When you are walking a tightrope without a net, do you say "I'm going to fall anyway, so I think I'll try skipping?"
So yes, we are screwn. Massive change will occur. Our ancestors dealt with ice ages. They took advantage of the attendant drop in sea level to walk across the Bering Strait. Humans now will take advantage of the loss of ice cover to drill for yet more oil in the arctic ocean, and will rejoice over greater profits due to shorter shipping routes to carry more lead-contaminated toys from China.
The sea levels will rise, cities will be submerged, wars will occur as the dwindling resources become ever more precious. It could have been better mitigated if warnings had been better heeded years ago, the consequences could have been better mitigated. They still could be mitigated to some degree.
But what we face is a world-wide oligarchy. Rule by the few, to the detriment of the many. And those few are not concerned for the future of the species, or of the planet. They are concerned for their own comfort and self-aggrandizement.
|