How could Gore win, if he entered the race this weekend?

[cali]

Could someone elaborate on how he'd win? I see plenty of posts saying he'd blow away all the other candidates, but no one explaining the mechanisms by which he'd do it. There's less then 3 months to first primary, and if NH moves its primary to Dec 11, there's less than 2 months?

What about:

Staff? There's a finite number of to political staffers. Do you envision staffers leaving other campaigns?

Money? Ok, he puts up a web site, and hires fundraising staff. How much money does he need to raise, and in what time frame?

Message? How does he get his message out there? Television? Print? Should he campaign on the ground in early states? Should he jump into debates?

Contending with the negative press? How does he deal with what I suspect will be hostility from the MSM?

And what's the latest that he actually can enter? I believe a candidate needs to have file for NH by Nov 3; but can he actually wait that long?

[Junkdrawer]

1. To say nothing of the voting machines...

The results are preordained either way. It's just that it will be more BELIEVABLE that Hillary lost the General Election...

The new politics of the Corporate-Owned-Voting-Machine world...

[slackmaster]

2. He'd sure as hell get my vote

:nuke:

[TwilightZone]

3. Faith and magic

If we just believe that he'll win in an uncontested landslide, he will, regardless of what reality suggests otherwise.

[sinkingfeeling]

4. I'm thinking about writing his name in on my primary ballot.

[SharonRB]

5. Well...

Staff: He has plenty of people who have not signed on to other campaigns who would jump at the chance to work on his.
Money: There are millions of people who would donate immediately. Plus, he has enough money of his own to help finance his campaign. And, he wouldn't need as much, since he's had all this time that he's been in the public eye while the others have been spending money.
Message: Come on -- his message is already out there. He's also got his own TV station and has gotten lots of free publicity already.

Negative press is probably the worst thing, but I think he can overcome it. He also has lots of positive press.

I'd say the end of October, maybe first week of November is the latest he can enter.

[cali]

7. I'm sorry, but everything I've

read indicates that staff is a limited resource. How do you know their are experienced campaign staff that haven't signed on with others?

You may be right about money, but I doubt it; he'll need tons of it just to counter negative press.

His message on Climate change is out there, but NOT on policy outside of that. I'm not saying he doesn't have it formulated, just that it has to get out there.

I agree about late October being the latest.

[renie408]

11. What 'negative press'?

Just curious. All that 'he said he invented the internet' stuff is going to be hard to float this time around.

As for him being scared of Hillary (I read that somewhere here on the DU), I think he is the one candidate she would have a hard time going after. I think HIS position go after her would actually be better.

[Blue Belle]

26. Experienced campaign staffers aren't a finite resource...

In fact, they jump from campaign to campaign all the time. Besides, he's already running a campaign for the environment... the two are very similar. He already has a grass-roots movement. He already has a internet network. He's already had face-time on National news programs.

Money may be an issue, but there are already people just chomping at the bit to donate to him.

Al Gore already has made many statements on policy... read "Assault on Reason". To think he is void of ideas for the world other than those of climate change shows that you haven't been paying attention. If he announced his candidacy, his ideas would get out there. The news cycles are desperate for something new to talk about.

The negative press will be there for EVERY CANDIDATE. You remember Hillary's laugh, Obama's lapel pin, Edwards' haircut? Gore has been dealing with negative press since the nineties (if not longer) and up to this point he's handled everything very well.

[jbnow]

27. I hope he doesn't get

a consultant that tries to make him bland and fake like all the candidates like to get.

How do you know there are NOT experienced staff. I'm betting that some that might have moved on to other things would come back for him.

Even pundits who say he couldn't beat Hillary say raising money would be no issue for him. That he wouldn't need as much right away because he is so known but also that he'd raise a great deal quickly.

He does have policies we don't know about. I read an interview with Michael Moore saying his health plan is great and the only really good one. He didn't say what it was, he went on to talk about the shortcoming of our top three candidates.

Gore surely has thought long and hard about policies when he ran and he follows world/national events...new knowledge would naturally amend them.
He'd actually get more coverage than people are getting now because of the buzz. He'd have speeches and interviews and talk about his policies, they'd get press. He'd be in debates.

It would be too late for you or I to enter the race, for almost anyone. Not for Gore.

[midlife_mo_Jo]

29. Most of his previous staff are still available

Or I guess a better way to put it is that they didn't sign on to anyone else's campaign. (Stated on MSNBC this morning. I'll assume it's true...)

[JuniperLea]

37. I've heard that from several sources ... eom

[saracat]

6. He could win. First of all there is an infinite number of staffers.

There are never enough jobs for them all. And many would jump ship to work with Gore. Lots of money people , especially ther Hollywood money people would switch and pour the bucks out and quickly.He doesn't need to build name recognition, and his message is already out there.The press will look like dorks if they attack him and unlike some other candidates, "they got nothin." Nothing to attack him on.I think he would be in great shape.And all the 527 would do enviornmntal ads. This could really fly.And not that they are really worth anything, he is crushing Hillary in the online polling.

[Horse with no Name]

9. I read on here a few months ago

that there is actually a staff ready and waiting should he decide to run.

[cali]

12. saracat, there is NOT an infinite number of experienced

campaign staff. In fact, it's pretty limited re the top people. What makes you think that the Hollywood money folks would change? Do you see people like Rob Reiner or Streisand moving to Gore? Why?

I agree that the 527s would be helpful.

The MSM still has great power and they WOULD attack him. One way would be by portraying him as being opportunistic an waiting till he got the Nobel. They'd dredge up his alleged "poor job" of campaigning in 2000 and run with that ad nausem.

Online polls mean nothing.

[saracat]

15. I meant staffers.Top people? Many would jump ship. Streisand and Reiner?

Yeah they might switch because they probably "like" Gore better.Reiner especially likes "green" and they can still give money to Gore.They can contribute to as many people as they want. David Geffen would be his way in a heartbeat. And remember now, he is one of their own.So? MSM does have great power, but I just don't see them attacking him. Maybe FOX but that would be weak. And if the poor job of campigning is all they got, he would be a shoe in. And I said the online polls didn't mean much but it is intersting that so many bothered to even take the poll and vote.

[renie408]

16. The number doesn't have to be 'infinite'.

Eh. I am familiar with your feelings about Gore and I understand your logic. I just don't think it is from outer space that he could launch a successful campaign. Honestly, I don't know why he would, but if he did, I don't think he would have as hard a time as you seem to.


BTW...online opinions don't mean a whole lot either. Ask Monkeyfunk.

[JackRiddler]

24. You're right, Reiner and Streisand are institutions who should decide who wins.

And now that Burston-Marsellar's talent has gone for Clinton, there really is no one left out there to run a credible campaign for Gore. Maybe if he's lucky he can pick up a few people from Hill and Knowlton, or the former Iraqi propaganda ministry.

[crispini]

28. Experienced campaign staff is kind of bushwah, actually.

They're not wizards. There are three parts to a campaign: (1) Coordinating stuff that needs to happen and 2) Marketing and message and 3) Strategy and looking at DPI and the numbers and so on. As far as (1), any decent project manager can do that stuff. As far as (2) I hope that Mr. Gore will NOT listen to the spinsters and the professionals if he decides to run, but run from his heart. and (3), well, it's blindingly easy to figure out DPI and crunch some numbers. At most, you need one or two really smart whiz kids to determine your strategy-- the rest is just implementation. Very BIG implementation, but still. :D

[JuniperLea]

39. Streisand and Reiner are supporters...

Not staffers.

Plenty of Hollywood folk have NOT chimed in as yet.

[renie408]

8. I think he has a head start. I don't think it is as grim for him as you do.

I don't know about staff, but I seriously doubt money would be a problem and come on...message?? Plus, without running, he is on the front of every news outlet there is. His name is constantly 'out there' and he would have a tremendous 'if only' kind of nostalgia going for him.

If he is going to enter, I think he has to do it next week. I personally feel like winning the Nobel Prize would make it LESS likely that he would enter. He has international acclaim, a cause he feels passionately about and I am sure the quality of life of a rock star-like Nobel Peace Prize winner leading a global cause is WAY better than that of POTUS.

[ThomWV]

10. By getting the most votes ... just like anyone else.

[johnnie]

13. Bill Clinton entered in October

He didn't do too bad.

[cali]

14. That was 15 years ago. The dynamic is different today. n/t

[johnnie]

18. Well, not really

I remember that being a pretty intense race. Bush #1 had a decent following and there were a lot of Dems running. But the talk at the time was the Dems were not going to beat Bush.

[saracat]

19. Yeah.Gore is an international name and just won the Nobel Prize.Clinton was a nobody.

Americans still have a sense of fairness and many realise Al Gore was robbed.The SCOTUS decision did not sit well with a lot of folks and even those that voted for Bush the second time have buyers remorse.Gore would be a chance to have a redo. Gore could squash Clinton(Hillary) like a bug.Even Bill couldn't save her.

[LSK]

22. lets not forget hes a movie star

[midlife_mo_Jo]

31. The change in dynamic is better in some ways

Twenty-four hour news coverage means more "face time" for all candidates - negative and positive.

[Renew Deal]

17. He'd raise a shitload of money. He has 100% name recognition with Dems.

And many activists would abondon the campaigns they're on to join him. He's the only one that could pull something like that off. I really think he'd raise $30 million in the first month.

[LSK]

20. well for one thing, as a former VP and with him being in the press everywhere

I highly doubt anyone in America does not know who he is. The same can probably be said for Hillary. You cannot say the same for Obama and Edwards or any of the GOP except maybe Guiliani or Thompson.

So he doesnt have to introduce himself as everyone knows who he is already.

I would assume a lot of staffers jumping ship.

With all the awards and the movie and such, he has been running an unofficial campaign already.

[JackRiddler]

21. Hubert Humphrey entered in June 1968

Which is not to draw a parallel to a completely different situation, but to show that "the rules" of what works change all the time.

This year the supposed rules have been changed on everyone to force early starts for the purpose of giving even more of an advantage to the money.

In the last year, the highly active Gore may have had more appearances to larger crowds, received more positive media and made more useful connections than possibly all of the current candidates put together. Compared to what the other candidates have accomplished, I'll take the Nobel, the Emmy, the Oscar, best-selling books and films, my own TV channel, and being known globally as the leading representative on a certain issue.

If he was intending to run all along (and I'm not saying he does or did), he could not have been running a better campaign! His message has gotten out there - more of a positive message and more effectively and to more people than Clinton's.

Rather than asking your questions in theory, why not welcome a test in reality?

[WinkyDink]

23. Are you CRAZY?! Volunteers are chomping at the bit! Press, schmess!

[cali]

34. I'm not taling about volunteers. I'm talking about the top flight

experts that it takes to run a campaign.

[saracat]

35. And actually, there aren't very many of those that really exist anymore.Gore probably knows more the

so called "experts".Look what Bob Schrum did to our nominees.And they said he was "top flight'Gore would do better without them. At least they won't make him wear "earth tones" !.

[MiniMe]

25. Well, he could use the internets

Many here would donate. And, he has the name recognition.

[redqueen]

30. The only serious concern I could see is staff.

And IF he were to declare, I think he probably would have been thinking about it for a while, and so if that's the case, he likely has some people already under consideration.

If he's considering a run, I'm sure he's thought about all of your concerns.

That's not to say I think he would necessarily win the race this weekend, but it wouldn't take long to take the lead. He had the lead before, and I wonder if he's included in polling now, if he wouldn't still have it, even before this bit of media buzz.

[Doremus]

32. Money doesn't look to be a problem.

"Gore's deep ties to online activists could neutralize Clinton's greatest advantage: her fund-raising prowess. Gore retains a network of big-dollar donors from his 2000 campaign, and many of the party's biggest funders are reportedly sitting on their checkbooks, waiting to see if he enters the race. "If Howard Dean could raise $59 million on the Internet," says Carrick, "the mind boggles as to what Al Gore might do." Joe Trippi, who managed Dean's campaign, believes Gore could raise as much as $200 million on the Internet: "Gore may have more money than anybody within days of entering the race."

What's more, strategists say, Gore has mobilized an environmental constituency that rivals Hillary's support among women and Obama's standing among black voters. "There are millions of people who call themselves environmental activists -- but until now, no one has ever been able to make the environment a voting issue," says Luntz, the GOP strategist. "Gore took the environment from deep inside the newspaper and put it on the front page for the first time. He would be able to say to people, 'If you really care about global warming, you have to vote for me.'"

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/13248532/why_gore_should_run__and_how_he_can_win/print

[ozone_man]

33. The net roots.

Like Howard Dean on steroids. :)

Seriously, he would get instant support from the activist, populist wing of the Party as well as Independents, Greens, voters not satisfied wuth the corporate field of candidates.

Also, keep in mind that the primary is more liberal than the general election, so Gore would rally the liberal voters, the environmentalists, the people looking for change. This is a huge opportunity for change right here.

As far as staff, I think staffers would jump at the opportunity to be on a Gore campaign.

[JuniperLea]

41. Very well said! eom

[JuniperLea]

36. He's registering on polls without even being a candidate!

That speaks volumes all by itself!!

[dysfunctional press]

38. as long as donna brazille stays FAR away- he'll be just fine.

nt

[SharonRB]

40. Amen to that!

[saracat]

42. Very true.

[book_worm]

43. It would be difficult, but I think he could raise a lot of money quickly and

would have tons of volunteers, but you are correct he needs to decide soon if he's going to run because of filing deadlines and voters in the early states especially don't like to have their votes taken for granted--he would have to get in there and ask for it like everybody else.

[TwilightZone]

44. He's been through it before and understands the process. That's a plus.

However, that previous experience also helps him understand how difficult a task it is and how much effort is required.

I don't think he'll run. Not because he doesn't think he could win, but because he's influencing the world already and is having a great post-politics life. I just don't see why he'd want to give that up to pursue perhaps the worst job in the world.

[L. Coyote]

45. Remember RFK?

On the night of the CA primary, National HQ felt we had won the WH, having passed the greatest hurdle. (Obviously, someone else understood this too.)

It all happened in a very short time.