IPSOS poll: If Gore Runs, 44% Of Dems would vote for him. That is a win a 4-way primary!

[IndyOp]

We need more data, I know, but for right now, we have poll data that some of us have been waiting for...

If Gore Runs, 44% Of Democrats Would Vote For Him by NYPopulist

In an IPSOS poll, commissioned by the Independent Film Channel, they ask the following question: "If Al Gore announced his candidacy for President today, how much would this impact your decision?"

DEMOCRATS polled said:
Would vote for Al Gore: 44% (In a primary with 4-top tier candidates, Gore would win if he captured 44%)
Would vote for another Democratic candidate: 54%
Would vote for a Republican candidate: 3%

INDEPENDENTS polled said:
Would vote for Al Gore: 33%
Would vote for another Democratic candidate: 29%
Would vote for a Republican candidate: 38%

REPUBLICANS polled said:
Would vote for Al Gore: 5%
Would vote for another Democratic candidate: 4%
Would vote for a Republican candidate: 91%

NYPopulist's interpretration... it looks like Gore would get 44% of the Democratic primary vote. In a nine candidate race with four top-tier contenders, this is more than enough to easily secure the nomination.

LOTS more good stuff here - IFC Commissions 2008 Political Survey to Examine the Nobel Peace Prize Announcement and its Influence on Independent Voters and the American Electorate. Network to Begin Series of Polls That Showcase the Growing Importance of Independent Thought Within the Political Landscape


A total of 1,073 voters responded to the survey which was prepared by IFC and conducted by Ipsos Insight between October 15th and 16th, 2007. The results are accurate within 95% certainty, and contain a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.


If the elections were held today between a Republican and a Democrat, who do you think would win, regardless who you would prefer to win?
- A Democrat: 67% (94% Democrat; 40% Republican; 69% Independent)
- A Republican: 33% (6% Democrat; 60% Republican; 31% Independent)


Have you read or watched "An Inconvenient Truth"?
- Yes: 18% <- HOW SAD IS THIS?!?!?
- No: 79%
- Not sure: 2%



Which of the following is the most meaningful award to you?

- Nobel Prize: 52% (67% Democrat; 35% Republican; 56% Independent) <- :D

- U.S. Presidency: 42% (28% Democrat; 61% Republican; 38% Independent) <- :shrug:

- Oscar: 5% (4% Democrat; 4% Republican; 5% Independent) <- :rofl:

- Emmy: 1% (1% Democrat; 0% Republican; 1% Independent) <- :rofl:

Draft Gore.com

Sign the Draft Gore.com petition - 214,000 as of 4:00 p.m. ET

:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause:

[rateyes]

1. Kicking the hell out of this thread....

:kick:

[Mabus]

4. I see your kick

and give it a fifth recommend to send it to the Greatest Page.

:woohoo:

[rateyes]

2. And, again,

I can't vote for it but once. :kick:

[AndyTiedye]

3. k/r

:kick::kick:

[Nia Zuri]

5. I wonder who sponsored this poll...

[Mabus]

6. From the OP "In an IPSOS poll, commissioned by the Independent Film Channel, they ask the following:

So, it was the Independent Film Channel that commissioned the poll.

edited to add:

IFC Commissions 2008 Political Survey to Examine the Nobel Peace Prize Announcement and its Influence on Independent Voters and the American Electorate
PR Newswire
Network to Begin Series of Polls That Showcase the Growing Importance of Independent Thought Within the Political Landscape

October 17, 2007: 02:11 PM EST

NEW YORK, Oct. 17 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- On the heels of last Friday's announcement that former Vice President Al Gore was the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, IFC announced today the results of a new independent survey that examined the significance of the Nobel Prize win on American political culture and its potential impact on the upcoming Presidential race. The national survey was conducted for IFC by Ipsos Insight as part of the network's growing News division, both on-air and online at IFC.com, and overall focus on being the voice of independent culture and thought. As part of this effort, IFC News continues to expand its coverage to make important stories, issues, and events from popular and political culture, such as Gore's accomplishments across film, television and online media, accessible to the network's loyal viewers whenever and wherever they want.

The online survey was conducted using the Ipsos U.S. Internet panel with 1,073 registered voters and those likely to vote in the 2008 election. Data for this study were collected through an Internet-based sampling and data collection methodology using the Ipsos U.S. Internet panel, and accurately reflects the online population (18 years and older) of registered voters and those likely to vote in the 2008 election.

"Our analysis shows that Al Gore's cultural legacy is enormously enhanced by the Nobel Prize," stated IFC General Manager and Executive Vice President Evan Shapiro. "The Nobel was seen as more significant than Mr. Gore's other recent honors, and more meaningful than the one honor that eluded him -- the Presidency. Most of all, as the survey indicates, Friday's Nobel announcement has created a valuable moment in time for independent minded votes within the electorate.

"As voters weigh the cost and benefit of each candidate, it is important to note the lasting effect and cultural importance the environment has on the average voter. Across all political affiliations, the environment is seen as a major cultural issue of our time. Interestingly, a large majority (68%) of Americans agree with Al Gore's environmental views, despite the fact that 80 percent of those polled have not seen his film or read his book.

rest of article: http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/NYW11617102007-1.htm

[lvx35]

7. I wish the same survey asked how Hillary stracked up with independants.

I'm not sure how to interpret those numbers, is Clinton stronger? Weaker? Regardless If Gore ran, I for one would drop everything and vote for him because he'd be the best choice, flat out. I think he would instantly be the unification "alternative-2-Hillary candidate".

[Uncle Joe]

8. Thanks for the update and stats, IndyOp.

:)

[book_worm]

9. one not so great question on the poll: If Gore runs again do you think he is a stronger candidate

now than in 2000?

Yes: 44%
No: 56%

[Mabus]

13. considering he got over 50% of the vote then

and that was when the media was undermining him every chance they could, I'd say that's a great question to ask people.

I, for one, think he's just as strong a candidate as he was back in 2000 so I would have been part of the 50%. Gore was right for America in 2000 and he's right for America in 2008.

[IndyOp]

14. A sizeable portion of that 56% thought he was a very strong candidate in 2000.

Not much room to be "stronger" if you already really, really liked him in 2000 - in spite of the bullshit media.

[gateley]

16. I just don't agree with that. nt

[niceypoo]

29. Gore isnt running

Why can't people just let go?

[Webster Green]

33. I'll let it go when I hear it from him..

We can't let it go because he would be the best candidate.

And....he's already been elected and wasn't allowed to serve. That sucks!

[niceypoo]

39. Former US vice president Al Gore has ruled out a bid for the White House in the 2008 elections

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=070216193307.67kfaghf&show_article=1">"I have no intention to run for president," Gore said in an interview conducted in Los Angeles and broadcast Thursday by the BBC

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/07/05/gore.office/index.html">Gore: I've 'fallen out of love with politics"

Now you've heard from him

[speedoo]

42. That first quote is from Feb. 16.

Don't you think it's not very relevant at this point?

[lame54]

48. I had the same reaction

and it is a little mis-leading, since Gore in more recent interviews has not given a definite no on that question.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=0Nnph3zkHNw

[corkhead]

54. that is from Feb 16 2005, if he had truly ruled it out, he would be saying so now.

[Zandor]

10. *yawn*

[book_worm]

11. edit, sorry responded to wrong person.

[againes654]

12. School just let out, he is tired.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

38. Zandor, Why do you hate Al Gore so much? ...Is it because you're a Hillary supporter?

Gore would really throw a monkey wrench into Hillary's plan of slithering into the White House.

[Divine Discontent]

55. yawn??

this poll is very telling, and you make sarcasm? Who are you for if you wouldn't mind sharing? I am for any of the Democratic candidates other than one (HRC), and would love if Gore got into the race, or Retired General Wes Clark.

[Usrename]

15. It looks like he would do extremly well running as an independent.

In any event, there is no doubt that he is electable - he's proven that once already.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. This is some shaky analysis in the KOS piece

The KOS poster says 44% would be enough to win a nine-way race with four top-tier candidates. That's true, but a weird thing to say. Why would anyone think it would be a four-way race after Gore gobbled up 44%? The only way that could happen is if Gore drew his support primarily from Clinton and not from the "anti-Clinton" candidates, which is pretty counter-intuitive.

Using the most recent national poll ( http://pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm )that has numbers with Gore and without Gore, Gore takes from Edwards and Obama at twice the rate he takes from Clinton. (He takes the most from Clinton because she has the most to lose, but in percentage terms he pulls 2:1 from the top two anti-Clinton candidates. That makes a measure of sense.) For Gore to go from 14% to 44% he has to pick up 30 points somewhere. Here is a breakdown of the race with Gore, if we assume the 44% number is correct and Gore draws from the anti-Clintons at twice the rate of his draw from Clinton:

Al Gore - 44
Clinton - 34
Obama - 8
Edwards - 6
Lesser candidates and undecided - 8

That would be a good lead for Gore, but not a "nine-way race with four top-tier candidates." It's a two-way race with some minor candidates thrown in.

Even if we assume (just for argument's sake) that Obama and Edwards lose only a little more to Gore than Clinton does (in percentage terms) it's still not much of a four-way race:

Al Gore - 44
Clinton - 30
Obama - 10
Edwards - 8
Lesser candidates and undecided - 8

Of course, the IFC poll was commissioned to get a specific result. The correct method would be, "If Gore were an announced candidate, would you vote for..." and then name all the candidates, including Gore, rotated the way pollsters normally do. The IFC poll is a publicity poll of a sort people do all the time when they want a certain result. Everyone runs VERY strong against no one. If you polled "Assume that John Edwards is in the race. Would you vote for him?" You would get a number much higher than Edwards pulls in regular polling vs. all the candidates.

And polling about a candidate not in the race never plays out the same real life because there is a powerful "grass is always greener" effect. (Which will probably be called "The Fred Thompson Effect" in future races.) In practice, Gore would probably pull something like 34%, rather than 44%, and pull from the anti-Clinton candidates at about 1.5 the rate of pulling from Clinton. So Gore needs 22 points... 10 from Clinton's 46, 10 from Obama/Edwards' 30, and 2 from the field.

My Best Guess of first national poll after Gore announcement:

Gore - 35
Clinton - 37
Obama - 12
Edwards- 8
Lesser candidates and undecided - 8

A very exciting two person race, and one Gore could quite possibly win, but not a blow-out right out of the gate. Of course, Obama and Edwards would have little rationale left for their candidacies, and would have to drop out at some point. And their remaining supporters would probably tip to Gore somewhat, providing a winning margin. It is hard to say what those remaining supporters would do because the fact they didn't jump off to join the Gore bandwagon right away means that those remaining supporters would, by definition, not be the most Gore-friendly elements of Obama/Edwards supporters. But I still think they would gravitate more to Gore, the anti-Hillary candidate. (If for no othe reason that the primary race has already created bad-blood between the current candidates and their supporters.)

But that effect has to be balanced against the down-side every candidate faces when they have to take positions on everything. Gore's Iraq stance, for instance, would be in line with the top-tier candidates... somewhat to the right of Richardson and Kucinich. So Gore gains some here, loses some there...

All in all, a thrilling race with no clear outcome. In any event, it would be something to see!

[IndyOp]

22. Good thoughts KAH -

I am hoping the Zogby poll that DraftGore has commissioned will follow the methodology that you recommend in asking "If Gore were an announced candidate, would you vote for..." and then name all the candidates, including Gore, rotated the way pollsters normally do.

I am rooting for Gore and I want to understand what is really happening "out there" -- we need to know where we are now, to be able to step forward from where we are standing.

:hi:

[stlsaxman]

18. Great news, IndyOp! thanks- let's get to praying-

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2081223

Democratic Lord's Prayer

[Mabus]

20. LOL

just gave you a recommend. I'll try to get back to it in a while and give it a kick.

[IndyOp]

23. Cute! I just visited your thread and contributed a K & a R. (n/t)

[DesertRat]

19. a big kick for President Gore!

:kick:

[Alexander]

21. K & R... Sign the petition!!!

[understandinglife]

24. Recommended!!!

I hope he reads my post on current.com ....

http://current.com/items/85332661_mr_gore_is_mentoring_each_of_us_as_to_what_we_the_people_means_it_is_just_that_simple

Peace.

[Pastiche423]

25. Another...

:kick:

[liberaltrucker]

26. Ain't gonna happen, unfortunately

:cry:

[RestoreGore]

27. Al Gore after 2000 : "To hell with polls"

And it appears that sentiment has not changed, and for a reason: he's right. Polls do nothing but appeal to the emotional side of the brain, not the side that seeks out reason. Anyone who read his book would already know that.

http://www.02138mag.com/magazine/article/1485.html

#1 - Al Gore
Man on a Mission
by Bom Kim
September / October 2007, Page 84

02138’s Bom Kim traveled to Los Angeles to ask the former vice president and environmental missionary about the earth’s lostbalance, the current inhabitants of the White House, his respect for Michael Moore, and how it feels to be Harvard’s most influential alum. Oh, and one other thing: Is he running for president or what?

Vice President Gore, we’re arguing that you are, at this moment, more influential than President Bush. Are we nuts?

Well, thank you for feeling that way, but yes.


We’ll have to agree to disagree then. But how influential do you think you’ve been since leaving the White House?

I’ve simply tried to have a positive impact. I actually feel that I have failed to reach my principal objective of moving the U.S. and the world past a tipping point on the climate crisis. It’s important to not confuse progress with success.


Are you having more fun these days?

(Laughs) It’s a tricky question, because the issue that I’m most focused on isn’t one associated with having a lot of fun. But there is joy in expending one’s fullest efforts in a cause that feels worthy and feels like it’s what you’re supposed to be doing. So in that sense, yes.

You were often referred to as the most powerful vice president.

That was before Dick Cheney.


Point taken. Cheney has made the argument that the vice presidency is not part of the executive branch. Is he right?

(Laughs) Of course the vice presidency is part of the executive branch! But I fear that I’m losing my objectivity where President Bush and Cheney are concerned. Not much surprises me anymore. I have a lot of friends who share the following problem with me: Our sense of outrage is so saturated that when a new outrage occurs, we have to download some existing outrage into an external hard drive in order to make room for a new outrage.

A recent poll shows that if you entered the presidential race, you would handily win the New Hampshire primary. Isn’t that tempting?

Sure. But I am old enough and have been a candidate enough times to have a very high level of resistance to temptations of that sort. I trust my instincts, and it doesn’t feel like it’s the right thing for me.


But if you believe global warming is such a crisis, wouldn’t you be more effective within the White House than outside it?

I’m under no illusion that there’s any position in the world as influential as that of president. But it doesn’t feel like the right thing for me to be a candidate at this point. I have had the experience of seeing how necessary it is to have adequate support among the people as a whole for the dramatic policy changes that are needed. It may well be that the best use of whatever skills and talents and experiences that I have gained is to concentrate on creating that sea change in mass opinion about this issue, so that whoever is elected will face a groundswell from the people themselves.


Will you endorse a candidate in the primary?

Odds are that I will.

Who?

I haven’t made that decision yet.

end of excerpt
~~~~~
Even Al Gore knows that polls are nothing but BS. But it is interesting to see that regardless of who anyone supports, as soon as a poll comes out they agree with they trust them.... if it is one however that disputes what they want people to see polls are crap. Personally, I think they're all crap.

[RestoreGore]

30. Hmm, but for those who swear by this poll:

5. Which of the following is the most meaningful award to you?


- Nobel Prize: 52% (67% Democrat; 35% Republican; 56% Independent)



- U.S. Presidency: 42% (28% Democrat; 61% Republican; 38% Independent)

It would seem more people are with Mr. Gore on his decision and many do not equate winning this prize with a political context or campaign. And look at the difference between Democrats who think the Nobel a more meaningful award than the presidency. Nice spin in the OP though.

[SlowDownFast]

28. Rec'd and Kicked.

More Gore.

[Mister Ed]

31. K&R n/t

[AikidoSoul]

32. K & R this thread (and any thread about electing Gore)

Love that man!

[Swamp Rat]

34. Yes indeed!

:bounce:

[meowomon]

35. K&R

I'm beggin' ya, Al! You had me in 2000 and you can have me again in 08!

[JTFrog]

36. K&R!

[Just-plain-Kathy]

37. I bet the numbers would be much higher. ...

...If Gore doesn't jump into the race, I don't think Hillary would get much of a turn out. It seems to be a given that Hillary's "the one". If Gore commits, EVERYONE will come out to vote in hopes to try to change our future.

...When people hear the words "Nobel Peace Prize", they think PEACE, and that's what everyone wants!!

[Divine Discontent]

56. sounds plausible, doesn't it! I hope so! n/t

[klyon]

40. It seems to me , if Gore was drafted at just the perfect moment

and he accepted, it would suck all the air out of the political race and he would be swept to victory. He wouldn't even have to be a Democrat. Getting him on the ballot in every state would be all it would takes for victory. No campaign necessary. Dream, I'm a dreamer. We need Al.

[aquart]

46. You wait every year for the Great Pumpkin, don't you?

[Dent-Arthur_Dent]

41. I thought we were "worried" about candidates anointed by the polls?

Not to dampen spirits or to cast any doubts on Saint Al, but it does seem just tad premature to declare a winner regardless of the name. Last I read the 1st meaningful polls don't occur until Iowa and New Hampshire.

I make the comment to remind us of the ways our political process has been and is manipulated to suit those who see themselves as our "betters". One of the wisdoms in having a complete primary process is to have the public discussions of issues that ALL of the candidates bring. Regardless of the MSM there is an important evolution of policy and representation going on in the primaries. It is not only about the winner or about the overall party position on one or two key issues. The process is about more than one candidate and more than one race as well as being about more than one region.

I am sure many who feel that other candidates than Hillary are speaking for them expect to have their ideas voiced and responded to. IF we anoint ONE candidate without going through the process of debate and commentary and VOTING then no one else is heard from and no one must speak on the record either. I think that plays very well in NY and DC and LA where the only apparent value is having a guaranteed winner. It likewise duplicates the process of the Neo-Cons, who as we already know prefer docile unity rather than energetic and public debate and disagreement.

There is the simple truth that you must also DO as well as you speak to be believed. Wishes do not bring beggars to horseback nor able and worthy leaders to the fore. One must first act and bear the consequences. IN the long run it is the one true measure of leadership.

I ask all the true believers to put down those ever handy stones and give their other organs some exercise, please.

[redqueen]

44. "Saint Al"?

I don't know about others, but for me, when people use loaded words like that, it tends to taint the rest of what they're saying with a thin sheen of crap.

[Dent-Arthur_Dent]

51. A little bit of exercise goes a long way but only if you read all the instructions....

"I ask all the true believers to put down those ever handy stones and give their other organs some exercise, please."

Al Gore doesn't see himself as the great savior that my remark might suggest to some. My commentary and characterization was meant to ask those who believe there is only one right answer to democratic politics to look a little bit outside the bubble and realize there are many resources and many good, helpful and just answers.

ALL of us have a stake in the next election. All of us have a right to expect our voices to be heard and answered. Al Gore doesn't believe in the simplistic math that would appoint a Democratic candidate prior to the primaries any more than I suspect Redqueen does.

[Javaman]

43. I love these posts. trying to predict the unpredictable.

so what happens when the deadline comes and goes and Gore chooses to remain a private citizen?

Are you all going to go on a rampage and force him to run?

Or will you just allow the poor guy just live his life like he does now?

I want Gore as much as the next person, but damn this bizarre deification is beginning to scare me.

[redqueen]

45. Where's the deification?

:shrug:

[Javaman]

47. check out the GD board,

you can't swing a dead cat without hitting an american idol gore post.

[redqueen]

49. Sorry... I don't equate people wanting him to run,

thinking that he will be a good candidate, or being excied about polls with 'deification'.

[Javaman]

50. You mean, gore saying that he's not going to run isn't enough for you?

have fun with that.

[redqueen]

52. Um...

I was only talking about the strawman of people "deifying" Gore.

I know what tangent you're going off on here, but I ain't the one to join ya. :hi:

[Javaman]

53. Deifying him by keeping this bizarre light burning for some last minute

surprise announcement that he will ride out from the gloom and save us all.

the only ones that can save us is, us.

[redqueen]

57. Yeah... I just don't

read the enthusiasm as a sign that they think that he's the only one that can save us.


I don't find it so bizarre. :shrug:

[Hatchling]

58. Help us...

:loveya:

[JackORoses]

61. hey you stole my idea ;)

[JackORoses]

60. he never said "I will not run", shitheel

try to find a quote saying that,
and have fun!!!!

[tabasco]

59. But I thought Hillobby was the darling of the Democrats?!?

Please, Dear God, for the sake of my country, tell Al to run!!

[codjh9]

62. Sadder than the fact that only 18% have watched the movie is the 2% who are 'not sure'. WTF???

[clarence swinney]

63. elect Gore here is his record--fabulous

I will never comprehend why he did not run with this outstanding list of

PRAISE CLINTON AND GORE WITH PLEASURE

GDP--rose from 6300 to11,600
NATIONAL INCOME-5,000 to 8,000 Billion--
JOBS CREATED—237,00 per month to replace Jimmy Carter record of 218,000.
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS--$360 to $478
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS WORKED--never hit 35.0--hit that mark 4 times in 80's
UNEMPLOYMENT--from 7.2% down down down to as low as 3.9%
MINIMUM WAGE--$4.25 to $5.15
MINORITIES--did exceedingly well
HOME OWNERSHIP--hit all time high (no big deal most can say this-except Reagan)
DEFICIT--290 Billion to whoopee a SURPLUS
DEBT----+28%---300% increase over prior 12 years by Conservatives.
FEDERAL SPENDING--+28%---+80% under Reagan- who is da true conservative?
DOW JONES AVERAGE—3,500 to 11,720 top in 2000. All it's history to get to 3500 and Clinton zooms it
NASDAQ--700 to 5,000 top in 2000.---All of it's history to get to 700 and Clinton zooms it
VALUES INDEXES-- almost all bad went down--good went up in zoom zoom zoom
FOREIGN AFFAIRS--Peace on Earth good will toward each other---Mark of a true Christian--what has Bush done to Peace on Earth?
POPULARITY---highest poll ratings in history during peacetime in AFRICA, ASIA AND EUROPE . Even 98.5% in Moscow--left office with Highest Gallup rating since it was started in 1920's.
STAND UP FOR JUSTICE--evil conservatives spent $110,000,000 on hearings and investigations and caught one very evil man who took a few plane rides to events.
BOW YOUR HEADS—“Thank you God for sending us a man of Bill Clinton's character, intelligence, knowledge of governance, ability to face up to crises without whimpering and a great leader of the world. Amen”.
THANK YOU GOD FOR THE GOOD TIMES THE CLINTON-GORE YEARS.
clarence swinney-political historian-Lifeaholics of America- burlington nc
[e-mail]
6-28-03







accomplishments.He had them.