Don't Fire Until You See The Whites of Their Eyes - Lower Polls Now are Part of Edwards' Strategy

Tejanocrat

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Fri Oct-19-07 02:19 PM
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Don't Fire Until You See The Whites of Their Eyes - Lower Polls Now are Part of Edwards' Strategy

At the Battle of Bunker Hill in the Revolutionary War, Colonel William Prescott commanded his troops "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes."

This rallying cry was a reminder to the troops that when the opponent is charging, do not waste your ammunition by firing at them when they are still out of range.

This history lesson lies at the heart of the Edwards campaign strategy.

For the primary campaign, Hillary has $35 million on hand, Obama has $32 million on hand, and Edwards has $12.4 million.

In the broader historical context of past elections, if you exclude Obama's and Hillary's record shattering fund-raising this cycle, Edwards fund-raising is at a record breaking pace.

In the context of the current election, Edwards has more cash-on-hand than ANY of the Republicans and more than twice as much as Richardson (the Democrat with the next most cash on hand) and more cash on hand than the combined amounts of Richardson, Dodd, Biden, Kucinich, and Gravel added together.

Knowing that Edwards has third most cash of all candidates in both parties, look at the evidence that Edwards is prudently waiting for the right time to launch his television ad campaign as reflected in most recent tally of the candidates' advertising:

In Iowa, Edwards has been focused on organization rather than advertising. So far, Hillary has run 37 times as many ads as Edwards, Obama has run 90 times as many ads as Edwards, Richardson has run 116 times as many ads, Biden has run 15 times as many ads, and Dodd has run 50 times as many ads.

You might ask, why is Edwards keeping his powder dry even when the poll numbers of most heavily advertising candidates are rising relative the Edwards' polling numbers?

Edwards learned from the 2004 Iowa caucus where Dean and Gephardt peaked too early and were already falling by the night of the caucus. Prior experience shows that most Iowa caucus participants will fluctuate in which candidate they prefer between now and the conclusion of the caucus. As the American Prospect recently reminded us, "less than a week before the 2004 caucuses, a Gallup press release averred, 'the contest for the Democratic nomination right now is becoming more of a two-man race between Dean and retired Gen. Wesley Clark.'"

Edwards is doing what he should be doing right now: Edwards is focusing on building his organization and on his ground campaign while the others focus on running ads.

While the other candidates are running 37 times as many ads, 90 times as many ads, and 116 times as many ads, those candidates' polling numbers will rise in relation to Edwards' numbers. That's normal and predictable and nothing to be alarmed about.

Edwards will suffer lower polling numbers now because he won't fire his television ads when the target is out of range. Because his experience in 2004, Edwards knows that it is better to peak on caucus day rather than peaking in October or November or December.

Edwards will run his television spots, and his numbers will surge as a result, but Edwards is timing his shift from emphasizing retail work on his organization to wholesale advertising so that he peaks at the right moment.

Keep the faith that a candidate with the most progressive agenda among the top tier candidates will be at the top of the field on the morning after the Iowa caucus.