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In its approach to northern Iraq, the Turkish fear is that if an oil-rich independent Kurdistan emerges from an Iraqi meltdown, its own Kurds (up to 20% of the population of 72 million) may also make similar demands or at least press for more autonomy, or even a separate homeland entity within Turkey.
Sedat Laciner, head of the independent Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization, says that a Turkish move into northern Iraq would be seen outside of Turkey as "invasion" and "occupation" and could lead to increased trans-boundary Kurdish nationalism affecting also Iran and Syria, both with sizeable Kurdish minorities (four million in Iran, two million in Syria). Iraq counts five million Kurds in its north.
Laciner told IPS that the financial cost to Turkey of an attack into northern Iraq could be US$10 billion in flight of foreign capital, quite apart from the cost of the military operation. The move could also doom Turkey's controversial bid for full EU membership.
A segment of Turkish society, led by influential liberal commentators, claims that flushing out 3,500 rebels in northern Iraq and neutralizing some 1,500 within Turkey may not solve the long-standing Kurdish problem.
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