The Nation: Do HRC's Numbers Lie?

[marmar]

DO HRC'S NUMBERS LIE? ...A methodological tussle broke out last week between Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, Mark Penn, and his fellow pollsters.

Penn claimed in a breakfast with reporters that in a general election Clinton would receive the backing of 24 percent of Republican women, helping to bolster the shaky argument about her electability. Penn's number was immediately scrutinized by ABC News polling director Gary Langer, who found that in a race against Rudy Giuliani, Clinton garnered only 11 percent of the GOP woman vote. Barack Obama pollster Joel Benenson wrote that "Penn's assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls."

Under fire, Penn clarified. "I was looking recently at Republican women voters (core Republicans and Republican leaners), and their support for Hillary has doubled in the last few months to 13 percent, from less than 6 percent," he blogged. "Also quite interestingly, "Don't Knows" surged to 11 percent, so a total of 24 percent would either vote for her or consider voting for her."

In fact, Penn should've originally said that, according to his internal polling, 13 percent of GOP women were considering voting for Hillary--and the group included those who only lean Republican. This might seem like a tiny quibble. But it's indicative of larger questions that have been raised about Penn's polling--and the analysis and advocacy he's doing on behalf of HRC (the latter of which was the subject of Maureen Dowd's column on Sunday about Penn's new book).

Over the summer, for an article on Clinton's corporate advisers, I reported how half a dozen former staffers said Penn has stretched to get the answers he wanted, including manipulating data, phrasing misleading questions and shifting the demographics of those polled.

Penn never releases his full polling data, so there's no way to know if it's accurate. But the recent dust-up proves that others in the profession are watching closely.


Posted by Ari Berman at 10/22/2007 @ 3:06pm | Email This Post

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=245137

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Penn shouldn't have exagerated. (13% vs. 24%)

[JackORoses]

2. Are we really surprised to find Hillary's people manipulating the numbers for her benefit?

It's shocking I tell you.

[11 Bravo]

3. I heard she also kidnaps orphans, eviscerates them, and sells their little organs for campaign funds

[KoKo]

5. Her support for the Kyle/Lieberman bill might not make your statement

be as bizarre as it sound....:-( if bush bombs Iran or whatever else he and Cheney decide to bomb.

[JackORoses]

7. Probably not, but she did vote for a War that has made thousands of Orphans

and if elected I'm sure a few Iranians will be orphaned as well.

[Scriptor Ignotus]

11. really!!??

she just lost my vote!!










:sarcasm:

[KoKo]

4. Not really...but sad to see her emulating Bush & Co. and the way they've operated.

Somebody posted that Mark Penn was Hillary's Karl Rove. I guess maybe there's some truth in that...

[rucky]

6. That sounds more like reality.

but no matter who the nominee will be, we'll have a tough road ahead. The 75% that disapprove of Bush, do not translate into Democratic votes - not by a longshot.

[Schema Thing]

8. meh... it's good strategy

if you hadn't noticed, Republicans, and "Republican leaners", are the type of people that need permission to do things. They might like doing the right thing, such as, say, voting democrat, but only if the crowd gives them "permission" to do so.

soooo streeeetch those particular numbers kids :D

[PollThis]

9. Bumping this one up. To fix an election,

fixing the polls early, helps.
Just a blanket statement.}(

[jaysunb]

10. You're smart !

and a welcome addition to DU :hi:

[leftchick]

14. That is indeed the first step

why else employ someone of his ilk?

[leftchick]

12. she has so many fucking neocon, corporatist scumbags working for her!

It isn't working hill!

[rinsd]

13. Ariana Bermanington continues on his neverending quest

:eyes: