As my county burns, the world peaks.

[robertpaulsen]

Writing at my desk in Los Angeles, I'm counting my blessings as I know many of my co-workers are having a worse time than I am. My apartment has not burned down. I have not been evacuated. Two of my relatives were evacuated, but at this time, their homes are still standing. Still, my emotional state is a little unsettled, sometimes anxious. It certainly doesn't help that the acrid smoke is polluting the air around here.

I can't remember the last time it rained here. There was a light mist nine days ago, but I can't remember the last time it rained. Contemplating this, I came across this thread here that maybe the reason for the prolonged drought we've experienced in this region has something to do with all the carbon dioxide we've been releasing into the atmosphere. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2126519 This might explain a lot regarding the number and severity of the firestorms in southern California. But there's another reason to explain the abnormal toll on building damages here: suburban sprawl. There are too many homes being built in areas that are prone to wildfires. Suburbia simply wouldn't exist without our dependence on fossil fuels. It's a vicious cycle destined to end in tragedy.

That equation is going to change, for better and for worse. Peak Oil happened in 2006. I'll say it again, because this is civilization-shattering news. Peak Oil HAPPENED in 2006. If you missed it, here's the report in The Guardian:

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study


· Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year
· Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the German MP behind the country's successful support system for renewable energy.

snip

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the British energy economist David Fleming as saying: "Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html

No longer can global warming deniers use the excuse that taking proactive measures will wreck the economy. Peak Oil has made that argument a moot point! Civilization will be constrained from increasing the use of fossil fuels through the natural limitations of the depletion of a non-renewable resource. Where civilization goes from there has yet to be written.

[leftchick]

1. thank you RP

K&R

[robertpaulsen]

3. Thank you!

I love that picture on your signature.

[leftchick]

4. it is the code pink gals!

who else?

:)

[robertpaulsen]

6. Today's best person in the world: Desiree Farooz!

Speaking truth to power rocks!

[leftchick]

9. Superb!

Is the word! As a matter of fact I want this for a new sig pic!

:)



Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, right, is confronted by CodePink member Desiree Anita Ali-Fairooz, her hands painted red, as she arrives to testify on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2007, before the House Foreign Relations Committee hearing regarding US policy in the Middle East ,where she spoke about Iraq, Iran, and the Israel Palestinian conflict. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

[bdamomma]

15. can you imagine if condi hauled off the punched the Code Pink woman

Condi would have been held for assault!!!!

[toddaa]

2. k&r

A cheery little article.

[robertpaulsen]

13. It's a cheery world, isn't it?

Personally, I'm breathing a little better today. As far as the health of the world goes, don't hold your breath. ;)

[BeHereNow]

5. "yet to be written"

At the alarming rate of increase in our
collective demise, I'm not sure anyone will be
around to write or read it.

Where in LA are you?
I am in Burbank and one would think the fire
was in the Hollywood Hills in my neighborhood.
The air is dismal- orange cast to everything and
the sky looks like post nuclear war over here.

Pretty dismal when viewed as an indicator of the future.

BHN

[robertpaulsen]

8. Hey there neighbor!

I'm working in downtown LA right now, but I'll be home in a couple hours right next to you in North Hollywood. Right now, it's an orangy-gray with slivers of blue in the sky. Occasionally a big cloud of smoke will pass overhead and redden the sun. Very apocalyptic looking.

But I know it will be worse at home because the smoke lays down in the Valley like a blanket. My wife and I are seriously talking about getting masks.

Trying to keep a stiff upper lip about the future. I have hope for humanity, but not much for civilization.

[BeHereNow]

10. Howdy Neighbor...

Apocalyptic is right.

There's a small group of us (Valley Duers) that meet up from time to time.
You would be most welcome and I think you would enjoy our
discussions.
I'll let you know when the next one is since you are right next door.
It's a great group.

BHN

[robertpaulsen]

11. Fantastic!

I appreciate the invite very much! Definitely PM me next time you have a discussion.

I had an apartment in Burbank 10 years ago, so it's still very familiar. Great place to see a movie and Gordon Biersch is one of my favorite places for dinner. Good times!

[JuniperLea]

25. Hello from AON Center!

Our normally gorgeous view is a chilling reminder...

I have nine family members evacuated from Lake Arrowhead...

There is a lot of undeveloped territory between suburban areas... all that wilderness fuels the fires. I get the feeling that many people think it's the general, end-to-end suburbs that's burning. And a lot of people are confusing San Diego the city with San Diego the county. It's hard to explain the lay of the land to people.

If it were all true suburban areas, instead of small suburban areas in wilderness areas, there would be enough concrete and neighborhood fire departments to put an end to the fires. That's not the situation.

[robertpaulsen]

26. Oh no! I'm so sorry!

And here I am bellyaching about having to breathe heavy. I wish your family members in Lake Arrowhead the best and hope they get through this OK. I have family members with a cabin in Big Bear; I'll be sure to call my Dad tonight to make sure they're all right.

Yeah, I guess people outside this area might get confused. If it was the end-to-end suburbs part that was burning, it would be a hell of a lot more than 1500 homes. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the worst has passed.

[JuniperLea]

27. Oh, no worries!

I'm bellyaching about the air too! I quit smoking over a year ago, and today I feel like I sat up all night smoking three packs! ugh~

Good to know there's another downtown LA DUer!

[robertpaulsen]

28. I know how you feel.

There's a grade school that I walk past every day on my way to the Red Line. Usually, the playground is filled with children running around playing. The playground was empty today, I assume, because the air is just too unhealthy for them to be running around and breathing in. You can't be too careful!

[WCGreen]

7. K&R...

Because the same can be said for what is going on in the other south, the southeast...

There is no way that region could sustain the massive influx of people...

And yet, they still build on...

Sprawling into places people once called scrub land...

[robertpaulsen]

12. That's the real problem: Overpopulation.

Out of all the problems in the world, this is the Big Elephant in the room rarely talked about.

[dysfunctional press]

18. it won't be a problem for long...

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/16956300/the_prophet_of_climate_change_james_lovelock

One of the most eminent scientists of our time says that global warming is irreversible — and that more than 6 billion people will perish by the end of the century...

[robertpaulsen]

22. Reminds me of something George Carlin said

Regarding saving the planet:

"The planet isn’t going anywhere. WE ARE!

We’re going away. Pack your shit, folks. We’re going away."

[Tyler Durden]

14. "His name is Robert Paulsen."

Maybe you and I are right. Maybe you have to hit bottom to be truly free; Maybe only after disaster can we be resurrected.

[robertpaulsen]

16. "The things you own end up owning you."

One of the most astounding things that will happen in a post-peak society is that capitalism, in it's current incarnation known as globalization, will cease to exist. Will the buildings of credit card companies be blown up to free 21st century indentured servants? That remains to be seen. But it's the personal decisions we make that determine whether we will end up as Jack's Raging Bile Duct or Jack's Colon.

[Tyler Durden]

30. BOY do WE grok.

Tyler is planning windmills and greenhouses to support 5 acres and a lake.

[Me.]

17. Peace RP

Thinking like that, by likeminded, will lead to a solution that is not neocon dependant

[robertpaulsen]

20. Thanks, Me. I'm still hoping for Gore to run.

But I'm not holding my breath. We've got an interesting road ahead of us!

[webmatters]

19. Ummm...

So the point to your post is 'Oil production has peaked - therefore oil is more expensive than alternatives'?

That's still a hypothesis. Hubbert predicted a peak in 1995, and yet global production actually doubled from 1995 until 2004. And competing theories state 2010. So while the hypothesis is a nice background for making a political statement - it is still just that.

Granted, no one dismisses the virtues of conservation and finding alternatives. But, since the push to corn-based ethanol has engaged, have you noticed how much a box of Cherrios costs these days? Have you noticed how slim the box has gotten?
It won't be easy, and frankly, I care less about theories on human-induced global warming than I do how must it costs to feed my children.

[robertpaulsen]

21. No. The point of my post is that the economy is fucked.

I thought I made that clear in the last paragraph of my OP.

Curious, what do you mean by "I care less about theories on human-induced global warming"? Do you deny that humans are responsible for it?

[webmatters]

23. answer

So you're saying the economy is headed toward dire straits because having based you're opinion on oil production having peaked on one report, the only way forward from here is doom and gloom? Well, you can quote my report - as easy oil becomes less scarce, prices will go up, and patterns will change. Fortuantely, there is no one day where the oil suddenly disappears, and therefore it will be a gradual event the economies of the world can adjust to - especially ours.

As for your inquiry on my stance on human-induced global warming - no, I don't believe in it - but that has nothing to do with your post.

Now, I'm curious - do you find yourself increasing paranoid as you grow older? Do you believe perhaps your age has changed your perception and attitude of the world to faciliate your own comfortableness with your own eventual demise?

[robertpaulsen]

24. My responses.

So you're saying the economy is headed toward dire straits because having based you're opinion on oil production having peaked on one report, the only way forward from here is doom and gloom?

No. All you have to do is look at my journal entries to know that my opinion regarding the immediacy of Peak Oil is not based on one report. There are a number of different researchers who have influenced my opinion. One in particular that I recommend you read up on is Chris Skrebowski. He was originally a skeptic on the issue of immediacy, but through his top-down approach verifying the production of oil mega-fields, he has changed his opinion. The thoroughness that he applies to his research is very convincing.

Well, you can quote my report - as easy oil becomes less scarce, prices will go up, and patterns will change. Fortuantely, there is no one day where the oil suddenly disappears, and therefore it will be a gradual event the economies of the world can adjust to - especially ours.

You have a right to your opinion, but I would argue that you are wrong if by saying Peak Oil is "a gradual event the economies of the world can adjust to" you are implying that there will not be severe economic consequences. Google "Robert Hirsch, Peak Oil". He was commissioned by the Department of Energy in 2005 & 2006 to do at least two reports on Peak Oil. His findings are chilling, to say the least.

As for your inquiry on my stance on human-induced global warming - no, I don't believe in it - but that has nothing to do with your post.

First, global warming has a lot to do with my post. Aside from the correlation between global warming and forest fires that I referenced in linking to RestoreGore's post, there is a correlation between Peak Oil and global warming. They are really flip sides of the same coin destroying our civilization through overconsumption of fossil fuels; one destroys economically and the other environmentally.

Second, I'm shocked that you don't believe global warming is caused by humans, very few Democrats do. Do you not believe there is a relationship between global warming and carbon dioxide? The world consumes a billion barrels of oil every 11 1/2 days. Do you deny the causality?

Now, I'm curious - do you find yourself increasing paranoid as you grow older? Do you believe perhaps your age has changed your perception and attitude of the world to faciliate your own comfortableness with your own eventual demise?

No. I would say that I have grown more wary of authority and particularly the government since 12/12/00, but if that particular response that I consider healthy is something you would define as paranoia, so be it. I'm 34. How old are you? Do you find yourself growing paranoid as the consensus in favor of human-induced global warming grows and the only public figures against it tend to be Republicans, including far-right nutballs like oil industry shill James Inhofe? If so, do you think age has changed your perception?

[robertpaulsen]

29. Oh dear, webmatters has left the building.

Guess I won't be getting any answers on his paranoia. Oh well, enjoy your tombstone & your denial!

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ProSense]

32. "I guess for all the talk about freedom of speech on these forums - hypocrisy runs rampant."

This is a discussion board dealing with facts. You are welcome to participate in an intellectual debate of the facts, and you'll find a discussion on that level doesn't involve censorship, hypocrisy and propaganda.

"Who's leading the mindless propaganda?" Your president and party.

[Amonester]

33. Who's leading the mindless propaganda?

You really want to know who is leading the mindless propaganda?

Here is their address: 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20500.

And that's just who's leading.

If you follow their lead, I don't want to know yours.