Attack Iran and You Attack Russia

[tekisui]

When Putin met with The Supreme Leader of Iran, they made some agreements that weren't discussed in public. And, Ahmadinejad seems to be off script, with his tough-guy talk.

"A high-level diplomatic source in Tehran tells Asia Times Online that essentially Putin and the Supreme Leader have agreed on a plan to nullify the George W Bush administration's relentless drive towards launching a preemptive attack, perhaps a tactical nuclear
strike, against Iran. An American attack on Iran will be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia. "

and..

"In itself, the Putin-Khamenei meeting was extraordinary, because the Supreme Leader rarely receives foreign statesmen for closed talks, even one as crucial as Putin. The Russian president, according to the diplomatic source, told the Supreme Leader he may hold the ultimate solution regarding the endlessly controversial Iranian nuclear dossier. According to IRNA, the Supreme Leader, after stressing that the Iranian civilian nuclear program will continue unabated, said. "We will ponder your words and proposal."

"Larijani himself had told the Iranian media that Putin had a "special plan" and the Supreme Leader observed that the plan was "ponderable". The problem is that Ahmadinejad publicly denied the Russians had volunteered a new plan.

"Iranian hawks close to Ahmadinejad are spinning that Putin's proposal involves Iran temporarily suspending uranium enrichment in exchange for no more United Nations sanctions. That's essentially what International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammad ElBaradei has been working on all along. The key issue is what - in practical terms - will Iran get in return. Obviously it's not the EU's Solana who will have the answer. But as far as Russia is concerned, strategically nothing will appease it except a political/diplomatic solution for the Iranian nuclear dossier."

Ahmedinejad may be overstepping his authority:

"This week, the Supreme Leader himself intervened, saying, "I approve of this government, but this does not mean that I approve of everything they do." Under the currently explosive circumstances, this also amounts to a political bombshell.

"As if anyone needed to be reminded, the buck - or rial - stops with the Supreme Leader, whose last wish on earth is to furnish a pretext for the Bush administration to launch World War III. If Ahmadinejad now deviates from a carefully crafted strategic script, the Supreme Leader may simply get rid of him."

link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ26Ak06.html

[leftchick]

1. most americans have no idea Ahmadinejad is an empty suit

The Supreme leader holds the cards.

[knitter4democracy]

4. I say that all the time.

We really don't want to take on Iran and Russia.

[Peace Patriot]

2. Asia Times Online is THE best source of news/opinion for the Asia-Pacific region,

and often publishes excellent analysis for U.S. and world trends and events as well. It is top notch.

I wonder how China (which gets a lot of oil from Iran, and holds a lot of U.S. debt paper) fits into this picture. China-Russia relations is something we never hear about. I did see a very brief news item, some months ago--which quickly disappeared in our corporate newsstream--that, I think it was, China, Russia and India held a meeting about how to curtail the lawless U.S. My first thought was economic punishment, which China could certainly inflict--either as a threat, to prevent an attack on Iran, or as punishment afterward. But when you think of the combined nuclear weapons power of all three countries--China, Russia and India--I think we would be "outgunned." That is, vaunted though Bush/Cheney may think our power is, it probably could not handle an attack by all three countries, or even two of them. And if this is a 3-country pact to protect Iran, it is an effective blockade to any Bush/Cheney assault on Iran. This could be why the U.S. military opposes attacking Iran. They are aware that this meeting took place, and aware of its importance. (That may be why it was backwashed in the "news.")

I'm going to go read what else Asia Times has to say about this. Could it be that communist/fascist China (that weird hybrid state) and capitalist/mafia Russia have joined hands to inadvertently save American democracy, by preventing this fatal error?

I don't mean to be blase about a three to five-country nuclear war (and then there are Israel and Pakistan). That would more than likely be the end of us all--end of the planet, end of all life on earth. (As Carl Sagan lays out, in "The Cold and the Dark," even a limited nuclear exchange can mean that.) But it sure goes to show you the importance of deterrent nuclear capability, in the face of a rogue state like the U.S. I hate nuclear weapons and hope to live to see them banned for all time. But if I were Iran's leadership, I would certainly want some right now. Lacking them, Iran is made more dependent on giant states like Russia than its leadership and its people likely want to be. And with Bush/Cheney daily issuing threats against them--and "made candidate" Hillary now chiming in--Iran has to be a little nervous about its dependency on others.

[Ian_rd]

3. I saw this shit coming weeks ago

There's no reason they wouldn't enter into such an agreement. Iran needs powerful friends and Russia wants drilling rights. Imagine a world where Russia and Iran get to play the good guys standing against an imperialist and aggressive United States - only possible in the world created by Bush.

Cheney will undoubtedly consider it a bluff, and hence, so will Bush. But this still may diminish the possibility of a strike as Robert Gates, the Joint Chiefs, and perhaps people at State (perhaps even Condi) fight harder against a psychotic president, his violent muse Cheney, and his apparently deep desire to feel powerful through death and destruction.