Is it true that crime goes up when gun ownership is low ?

[steve2470]

I heard Neal Boortz say that in the UK, because of their gun ownership laws, that crime rates had gone up after they were enforced.

Yeah, I know I should have never listened to him (no FM or XM in a car), but is this true ?

[Esra Star]

1. Crime rates are a direct function of the level of desperation

in a community. Weapons have nothing to do with it.
The difference is if everybody is armed to the teeth,
somebody will crack and then .........

[ixion]

6. Yep, that was my answer... it's not the guns, it's the economy

if people have work and can buy food and a place to live, etc, crime goes down.

A great example of this is the dot.com boom, where we had such great employment that crime was at a low.

[Irreverend IX]

2. That's inaccurate and oversimplified.

In the UK's example, the government has been working to prohibit and demonize all forms of self-defense. This ensures that criminals have nothing to fear from citizens. Thieves can break into houses, rob and flee before the cops arrive but anyone who attacks such a criminal will be prosecuted themselves. UK law says that you can use self-defense if you feel you are in reasonable danger, but the courts determine what's reasonable and they are heavily biased against self-defense.

All the nanny state really accomplishes is empowering criminals. Physical violence is a part of life for every creature on Earth, and if law abiding people are denied the use of force the lawless will be more than happy to pick up the slack. The draconian gun bans in the UK are just one manifestation of this syndrome.

[ray of light]

3. Crime rates go up as the poverty level increases

and as parents need to work 2-3 jobs to just keep food on the table and a roof over head and as the first poster said, "The level of desparation goes up."

[cornermouse]

4. Gun ownership has never been low in this country

and crime still goes up. People with good paying jobs are not likely to commit crimes and take a chance on prison and you might consider this optimistic of me, but I think most people do want to work and aren't the lazy bums that the republicans and libertarians like to accuse them of being. That said, if the job isn't there, they have no income. My vote is also with desperation.

[Perry Logan]

5. It is not true. This is a false meme that gun guys like to repeat.

Gun proponents love to say the violent crime rate in England skyrocketed when they cracked down on guns back in 1995. I'm sure they will repeat this meme to the grave...

But--as always--the gun guys use bad stats to get the results they want. In fact, the violent crime rate in England has plummeted since they cracked down on guns:

"Comparison of results reported to the BCS in 2001/02 with those for earlier years show a 17 per cent decline in BCS violence since 1999, a 22 per cent decline since 1997 and a 33 per cent decline since 1995, all of these decreases being statistically significant.”
http://timlambert.org/2004/08/bcs/

PS: The link is to an excellent Australian statistician, Tim Lambert, who is a great resource for question about statistics. Lambert is not partisan. He's just an excellent statistician who also writes exceedingly well. Check him out for information on the statistical ins and outs of gun control, global warming, DDT and malaria

[hansberrym]

12. If Tim Lambert is such a good writer and statistician, why does

he make the following statement?

The study shows that English rate of contact crime (3.6%) is not “many times” that of most European countries (average 2.2%).

[MannyGoldstein]

7. Almost Certainly Bullshit

I've looked this up before. In general, states with stronger gun laws have lower murder rates.

[cali]

8. Vermont, NH. Maine

and several western states put that in question. Good thing you said generally.

[MannyGoldstein]

10. The Most Powerful Determinant Of Murder Rate Seems To be Population Density

From my blog: http://blueworksbetter.com/Murder

[cali]

11. i'll buy that.

it makes intuitive sense.

[mvccd1000]

9. Which general would that be in?

Arizona, with no gun registration and a "shall-issue" policy for CCW, has a murder rate almost 1/2 that of Maryland - which has rather draconian gun laws - and 1/5 that of Washington, D.C. which bans handguns altogether.

I'll stick to Arizona, and I'll keep my guns, thank you.

[benEzra]

15. Not so much. NJ and Florida have similar murder rates...

despite the fact that they are on opposite ends of the gun-law spectrum. Maryland's murder rate is IIRC the highest of any state, and they are not gun friendly; WA, OR, NH, ME, VT, have very low murder rates, and are among the most pro-gun states in the country.

Only six or seven states have strict gun laws in the U.S., and they are all over the map as far as crime rates go. Most states are pretty similar as far as gun laws, and you find pro-gun states at both the extreme low end and the high end of the crime spectrum.

Lawful and responsible gun ownership doesn't affect crime rates much, one way or the other. A tanking economy and inner city blight do, though.

[Igel]

13. Tough question.

Yes and no.

Gun laws are sometimes instituted or more strongly enforced when there's a spike in crimes; spikes tend to be short term, so you get to factor out natural decreases in crime with gun-law enforcement. People tend to do this only to debunk the other guy's argument, never critically think about their own.

On the other hand, there are places where high gun ownership correlates with low crime. Or with high crime. Depends on the people.

There are dirt-poor communities with low crime rates. There are communities with high population density and low crime rates. Or not: poverty and population density also (sometimes) correlate with high crime.

One constant, cross-culturally, is young men. The greater the percentage of young men you have in a given culture, the greater the crime rate compared to other years. The greater the control placed on the young men, the greater the responsibilities, the greater the supervision, the lower the crime rate--but you can't compare across cultures because the culture itself is a form of control or responsibility, you have to compare longitudinally. There's even a minor thesis that when young men reach a critical mass in a society, it also greatly increases the chances of war--civil or otherwise--unless you properly acculturate them and mitigate their influence. Think of young male rogue elephants.

I remember one study done in the Pac NW. They looked at communities that were similar, all the differences they could find were controlled for, apart from culture. Same relative income/education/ethnic mix/population density, and they made sure that the weapons density was *also* the same. But the crime rates were different. They weren't looking at guns, they were looking at the use of knives. It factored out all the differences in laws and attitudes to guns. The difference was large. The Americans were more violent, in that study, than the Canadians living 50 miles away.

[SoCalDem]

14. Crime goes up when people are poor, desperate & hopeless

and MOST crime is within their own "circle". Contrary to what the media tries to tell us, people in the poor parts of town prey on each other...they do not take the bus or drive stolen cars to the wealthy part of town to steal Mrs. Hoity-Toity's purse.

Most crimes are crimes of opportunity (except of the obvious revenge crimes..which happen in EVERY circle)..

If you leave your door open, there's a chance that you will get stuff stolen.

Guns have little to do with most crimes..