CNN/Opinion Research Poll - Gore beats Guiliani; Clinton = Guiliani among registered American voters

[IndyOp]

Source: Opinion Research Corporation / CNN. Methodology: Telephone interviews with 927 registered American voters, conducted from Oct. 12 to Oct. 14, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

The question asked was: "If (...) were the Democratic Party’s candidate and (...) were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, who do you lean more toward?"


Gore beats Guiliani - the 6 point difference is outside the MOE. :D

Al Gore (D) 52%
Rudy Giuliani (R) 46%


Clinton = Guiliani - the 2 point difference is inside the MOE. :(

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 49%
Rudy Giuliani (R) 47%


http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/hillary_holds_two_point_edge_in_us_race/

Standard Disclaimer #1: I will admit that Gore will not run for POTUS in 2008 when he either (1.) states that he will not seek, nor will he accept his party's nomination for POTUS in 2008, or (2.) when the Democratic National Convention is over and he has not won the nomination.

Standard Disclaimer #2: I deeply appreciate everything Al has done regarding the climate crisis and the restoration of democracy in the U.S. Whatever he decides to do next is fine with me. I believe that his decision will be based on what he believes is best for the nation and the world and I will respect that decision. I do not believe that letting him know that we want him to run is disrespectful in anyway - I will work for him whether he runs or not - having signed the LiveEarth pledge this summer I already am. Sign the LiveEarth Pledge!

Standard Disclaimer #3: Is it at all realistic to think that Gore could enter the race and win at this point? Yes. He could ignore New Hampshire and Iowa (and any states that hold primaries before that date) -- and toss his hat in the ring in time to participate in the February primaries which include the big states like California. See http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20071018_could_gore_be_a_contender">Could Gore Be a Contender? Also see the answer to that question - CBS News Poll - Gore emerges as a serious contender.

Meanwhile, the petition at Draft Gore is now about 130 signatures away from 220,000... Sign It!

And over at the DFA pulse poll - Al has 26.45% of 103005+ votes cast as a write-in candidate. http://democracyforamerica.com/pulsepoll">Cast a write in vote for Al!

[MissMillie]

1. How does the poll look among "Likely" voters?

disclaimer: I haven't picked a candidate yet.

[IndyOp]

2. That information isn't available at the page I found. Maybe if

someone searched the CNN website?

[havocmom]

3. My big fear: With HRC as nominee, LOTS more likely voters turning out

for GOP

[mod mom]

5. That's why they want her to be our nominee. Not only will she help GOP turn out

but she will also hurt Dem turnout since many anti-war liberals who are against corporatism fail to vote for her.

This is why we need AL GORE as our candidate!

[marlakay]

10. Thats what I worry about too

the house and senate are already weak and if she causes us to lose more of them we are in the dust...

[weeve]

14. And let's not forget ...

... it was Hillary's botched and frankly naive Health Care initiative back in the early 90's that threw Congressional control to the Republicans for over a decade. Fool me once ...

Let's not allow this to happen to us again. Have we learned nothing from history? We really need AL GORE as our nominee, and if for some indeciferable reason he decides not to lead, then let's all get behind Edwards, who also has no problem speaking Truth to Power.

[Mabus]

9. The Mystery Pollster explains it

Gallup/CNN/USAToday

*Mechanics - I have described the Gallup model at length beginning with this post. Gallup creates a seven point index based on answers to seven questions as shown below. Under 21 respondents can receive up to 3 bonus points depending on their answers to other questions. Likely voters are typically sevens, plus sixes weighted down to a cutoff percentage. Gallup had been setting the weighted cutoff to 55% of its adult samples. Jeff Jones of Gallup reported that the cutoff would be increased to 60% for its last survey.

1) How much have you thought about the upcoming elections for president, quite a lot or only a little? (Quite a lot = 1 point) 2) Do you happen to know where people who live in your neighborhood go to vote? (Yes = 1 point)

3) Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district? (Yes = 1 point)

4) How often would you say you vote, always, nearly always, part of the time or seldom (Always or nearly always = 1 point)

more at http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/likely_voters_v.html

fwiw, when I've done polling for local candidates we get voting information which tells us things like which of the past few elections each voter has voted in. We called those that we identified as "likely" based on their voting records for the previous cycles.

[helderheid]

4. I wish he'd run

[speedoo]

6. K&R, and petition signed. nt

[IndyOp]

7. Thanks Speedoo! (n/t)

[progressoid]

8. 63 days until the IA caucuses.

I'm beginning to think Al's off the list.

[understandinglife]

11. Recommended and ...

Please

Thank you,
Bob

[book_worm]

12. of course the one thing Gore has going is that he isn't a candidate

a non-candidate often does better in these types of match-ups. Now if he got into the race and was part of the hustle and bustle of the political debate would he do as well? I'm not sure.

[Fly by night]

13. Gore/Richardson '08 -- that's the ticket

[weeve]

15. Ha ...

Well my friend, you're HALF RIGHT anyway !!