Scientists See Costly, Disastrous Search for Oil in Just 15 Years

[AnnInLa]

via Huffpo:

All the world’s extra oil supply is likely to come from expensive and environmentally damaging unconventional sources within 15 years, according to a detailed study. This will mean increasing reliance on hard-to-develop sources of energy such as the Canadian oil sands and Venezuela’s Orinoco tar belt.

snip

A report from Wood Mackenzie, the Edinburgh-based consultancy, calculates that the world holds 3,600bn barrels of unconventional oil and gas that need a lot of energy to extract.

So far only 8 per cent of that has begun to be developed, because the world has relied on easier sources of oil and gas.

Only 15 per cent of the 3,600bn is heavy and extra-heavy oil, with the rest
being even more challenging.

The study makes clear the shift could come sooner than many people in the industry had expected, even though some major conventional oil fields will still be increasing their production in 2020. Those increases will not be enough to offset the decline at other fields.

“It becomes unclear beyond 2020 that conventional oil will be able to meet any of the demand growth,” Wood Mackenzie said. The report added that natural gas products such as liquids and condensate would also become important sources of growth.

The increasing reliance on unconventional oil will require a substantial reshaping of the energy industry.

Royal Dutch Shell and Total of Europe and ExxonMobil and Chevron, the US-based energy groups, have already begun to invest heavily in Canada and Venezuela.

Others – including Chinese energy groups – are looking at the possibility of extracting heavy oil from Madagascar.

snip

But the challenge is huge, said Matthew Simmons, an industry banker who sent shock waves through the oil world when he questioned whether Saudi Arabia, the most important oil source, would be able to continue to expand production.


snip and more at:


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/11ba213e-bf7e-11db-9ac2-000b5df10621,_i_rssPage=6700d4e4-6714-11da-a650-0000779e2340.html


((any lingering doubt what we are doing in the ME? Neocons knew the US would have to position the US on or near vast fields))

[Parisle]

1. They left out the most important point,....

--- At that approximate point in the future, dwindling supplies of petroleum will be even more fully relegated to purely military use. Ordinary people can get electric or alcohol cars, ride bicycles, hitch-hike, whatever,.... and they can freeze to death in their homes, too,... lest they think the ruling corporate elite's military ambitions and tactics are going to tolerate a shortfall.

[soothsayer]

2. Unless the abiotic oil theory is true (oil is continuously created, not

just from dinosaurs). Same reason old, empty oil wells sometimes fill back up, tho that could be the oil redistributing itself under the surface---in which case why do we need to keep drilling in other places.

[Warren Stupidity]

4. First of all - it ain't dinosaurs.

Secondly, the strong abiotic theory is ridiculous. Where's the oil? We've only been using it for a bit over 100 years, so where is the stuff that was being produced for the previous 3-4.5 billion years? Why aren't we drowning in it?

[IDemo]

3. “- unclear beyond 2020 that conventional oil will be able to meet any of the demand growth"?

Matt Simmons, Colin Campbell, Ken Deffeyes, Richard Heinberg, and most others who are following the issue of conventional oil decline very closely are increasingly saying we may already have passed the peak, or are experiencing it now. The chart below, based on Hubbert's curve, shows an unmistakable decline by 2020.