No need for polls. Markets will predict candidate

[flashl]

Market lets traders put money on likely presidential nominees

Stock project seen as better predictor than polls, professor says

Trying to figure out who will win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations can be more than just a topic of conversation.

For some people it's also a way to make money – if only a little.

Michelle Collins, who is studying accounting and finance at the University of Iowa, is among the thousands of traders who buy and sell contracts in the Iowa Electronic Markets, which is run by the university's business school.

Traders can put money behind the candidate they think will win the nomination through contracts that pay out $1 each if a particular candidate wins the nomination.

The price of a contract is set by how likely other traders think it is that that candidate will win. For example, on Friday, Fred Thompson's contract price closed at 4.3 cents, showing that the traders think there's a 4.3 percent chance he will get the GOP nomination. That's down from 33.8 percent in June.

"As the convention gets closer, more and more people pay attention and get involved," Ms. Collins said. "The more active it is, the more fun it is."

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[Demeter]

1. Try to get in and SEE that Market!

The University keeps it real close to the chest....