How does Huckabee lose? Romney is finished, he will kill McCain in South Carolina, sweep the south

[Herman Munster]

Maybe Giuliani is the last man standing in the super tuesday states and gets enough delegates to beat him? The fundies have found their dude.

[AlCzervik]

1. imo Huckabee will lose NH.

[YOY]

3. The Baptist "fambly values" freak act doesn't play well to NE fiscal Conservatives

It'll be a true show of their splintering...

[Herman Munster]

5. yeah mccain will win

then mccain and huckabee will battle in south carolina. And Huckabee will take him to the cleaners.

He'll win Florida and take Giuliani to the cleaners. He's already winning in the FL polls.

And if McCain and Giuliani stick around, they may split the big states amongst themselves and allow Huckabee to sweep up in flyover country and the south where his folksy charm will have the most appeal.

[sinkingfeeling]

2. If every fundie in America votes for Huck, he'll lose because they're only about 35% of all voters.

[Zynx]

4. Not in the Republican primary he won't.

[WilliamPitt]

6. 2/5

[Robbins]

9. Republicans

Saint Rudy may lose the big states to Mccain.We will face eather him,or Huchabee.

[Zynx]

13. There are a lot of potential Huckabee states that day,

AL, OK, TN, GA, MO, etc. He can do it.

[WilliamPitt]

17. Not against NY, CA, MA, CT, IL, NJ, DE

NY and CA delegates alone outnumber the ones you list, plus the others. No, 2/5 is bad news for the evangelicals. Taken one at a time, evangelical states have clout. Lumped in with the big states, however, they get buried.

[Zynx]

18. GA and TN have more delegates than CT, MA, and DE.

California is not a sure-fire loss for Huckabee either. He polls pretty well out there. With divided opposition, he can win.

Also, who says he loses IL? He can easily come out of Super Tuesday with a plurality, not a majority, of delegates.

[Zynx]

20. Let me add up the 2000 numbers for you here:

Georgia: 54 winner take all
Tennessee: 37 winner take all
Arkansas: 24 proportional
Oklahoma: 38 winner take all
Missouri: 35 winner take all
Alabama: 44 winner take all
Colorado: 40 proportional
Totals: 272

Non Huck states:
Massachusetts: 37 winner take all
CT: 35 winner take all
Delaware: 12 winner take all
New York: 101 proportional by district
New Jersey: 54 by district
California: 162 Winner take all
Total: 401

But these numbers have probably shifted more towards the Huckabee states since then and he also has potential wins in Minnesota and Illinois and even California is not out of the question in my judgement. He can win it with a plurality as the rest divide it up.

[Johonny]

7. The biggest Rethug loser

last night was clearly Romney. He also showed zero class trying to speak at close to the same time as Huckabee. Which pushed him off the air for the most part. Clearly New Hampshire is now very important for McCain. If Huckabee bombs out of the bible belt then his electability in the general election comes into question. McCain's biggest asset is MSM loves him because he feels "electable".

[yardwork]

10. Huckabee will be loved in the Bible belt. He might be the nominee.

If Huckabee is the nominee then I predict that the Republican Party will throw in the towel and allow the Democrat to win. They won't rig the machines for Huckabee. They'll rig the machines for Romney or Giuliani, but not Huckabee or McCain. And McCain won't get support among ultra-conservatives, either. McCain is going nowhere fast.

[yardwork]

8. I hope that Romney is finished. He's the one to beat in the general.

[Zynx]

11. I can construct a plausible scenario by which he wins the nomination.

He finishes a strong third in NH @ around 20% and McCain finishes first. He then goes on to Michigan and sews up the outstate voters and wins there too. He can win one of either Nevada or SC. January 29th he can win Florida without a doubt. Maine doesn't matter(sorry Mainers). Feb 5th he wins AL, AR, GA, possibly IL, MO, OK, and TN easily with possible other wins in MN, ND, and even California due to a split Republican vote.

[bullwinkle428]

12. You're underestimating the power of the GOP machine -

the machine DOES NOT WANT TO SEE HIM WIN!

[Zynx]

14. They are divided between so many candidates though.

The sober ones are backing McCain, Romney, and Giuliani. None of them will concede to any of the others. They stay in and split the establishment vote.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

15. I guess this is where that "momentum" thing I keep hearing about...

comes into play. St. Rudy of 9/11 could very well be written off thanks to extremely poor showing in IA (3%?!), NH and SC. People will blindly vote for whomever the perceived winner is, and after SC, it will be Hucklebee. Are that many Floridians (aka transplanted New Yorkers) going to come to Rudy's rescue? I doubt it. So much for "America's Mayor"...

I called Huckleberry a few weeks ago and I'm afraid it's gonna come true. Huckleberry/Thompson? Dear gawd. Is it still possible for Bloomberg to enter the race as an Independent? That ticket might be enough for him to do it.

[book_worm]

16. It's McCain vs. Romney in NH and Romney will be eliminated and then the battle in SC

between Huck and McCain. I think Hucklebee will win there. I also think he can take Rudy out in Florida.

[Kazak]

19. Bob Dole 2

He's the best losing candidate they've got.