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As the first presidential caucus and primary approach, the gay vote in Iowa and New Hampshire is not reliably behind any one candidate.
Sure, contributions to Democrats in the nation's gayest zip codes appear to give Hillary Clinton a significant edge over Barack Obama and John Edwards. Sure, a pre-selected internet population of lesbian, gay, and bisexual consumers nationally shows Clinton with a hefty lead.
But while the national data suggest that gays are leaning more strongly toward Clinton than are Democrats generally, interviews with gays in Iowa and New Hampshire paint a different picture - one that looks more muddled and more like voters in those key early states.
Take a look at the last seven national polls of Democrats -the average of those polls shows Clinton leading with 43 percent of the vote, followed by Obama with 26 percent, Edwards with 13 percent, and five others splitting 18 percent. The Hunter College survey, released in December, showed that 63 percent of LGB consumers nationally supported Clinton, 22 percent supported Obama, with the remaining 15 percent being spread out over five other Democratic candidates. Federal Elections Commission reports through October, 2007 (the latest available) on contributions to the candidates show that in the nation's gayest zip codes, Clinton leads with 51 percent of contributions to the top three polling Democrats, followed by Obama with 38 percent, and Edwards with 11 percent.
Now look at the four latest New Hampshire polls. As of December 13, Clinton had only a three-point lead over Obama, with a margin of error of plus or minus three points. Edwards is in third, 12 points behind Obama. In Iowa, the average of five polls, as of December 17, shows Obama three points ahead of Clinton with a three-point margin of error. And Clinton has only a two-point lead over Edwards. And in both states, interviews with gay activists suggest the gay voting block is also diffuse.
Interviews with activists in these two states suggest a similar phenomenon. New Hampshire State Rep. Jim Splaine, who led the successful push for civil unions in that state this year, is backing Clinton; State Rep. Mo Baxley, who heads up the state's only statewide gay organization, is for Edwards. In Iowa, long-time Democratic and gay activist Dave Tingwald is for Obama; activist Carlton Burns is for Joe Biden; and Janelle Rettig is a precinct captain for Clinton.
"GLBT folks are divided up more this year than in any other," says Rettig, an observation that was echoed time and again by activists in both states. "We have three openly out elected officials here in Johnson County. One is with Clinton, one with Obama, and one, I'm unsure. I know GLBT folks with
Richardson."
Ray Buckley, the openly gay chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, says gay voters in the Granite State are "really, really spread out --right across the spectrum."
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Link: http://www.pridesource.com/article.shtml?article=28649
There's another thread here that has members of the GLBT Community calling other members traitors depending on who they are supporting this primary season. This article seems to suggest that like ALL communities, GLBT folk are just as split\diffuse as any other community. So why the name calling?
:shrug:
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