Obama's spport is about to go viral in a major way.

[cali]

I'm not sure why. There are so many elements it's hard to figure out how to weight them. The MSM has largely been very kind to him while nipping and ripping on Clinton, and treating John Edwards in a sort of dutiful way when they do cover him. Obama reaches people. Like or not he's a very effective campaigner and orator. Young people: He speaks to them. And they respond.

None of the above means he's simply all image or a fad. He's not. This isn't American Idol. He is speaking substantively, but he is also speaking in the terms of a great campaigner, using inspiration to draw and motivate people.

He could still blow it, I imagine. He could underperform terribly at tonight's debate, but that seems none too likely.
The first Zogby trackiing poll that reflects any post Iowa opinion shows him making gains, and Zogby says that will be further reflected tomorrow. If Obama wins NH as convincinly as he won Iowa, he moves into NV and SC riding a wave that will be very hard for anyone else to catch.

He has charisma or whatever you want to call it, and the more viral his support goes, the greater his aura of attraction.

[TwilightGardener]

1. People are waking up to the fact that they don't have to support

someone they don't particularly like just to win. They can win with the likable guy, too. I wish there wasn't any more debates--it's risky for Obama, IMO.

[mnhtnbb]

2. Debates are Obama's weakest area. He's clearly not as quick on his feet as either

Edwards or Hillary.

[TwilightGardener]

3. I agree that he doesn't come off as well--he's not a soundbite guy.

[cali]

4. i agree. He hasn't been particularly good in debates

or terribly memorable. But then again, all he really has to do tonight is not blow it.

[Onlooker]

6. He was quick on his feet when ...

... Hillary laughed after he was asked about why he had so many Clinton advisers on his staff. He turned to Hillary and said, "When I'm President, I'll take advise from you, too." I think he does fine in debates, but I also think he needs more of a sense of humor.

[Blarch]

5. Being from Chicago...

let me enlighten you...

"I'm not sure why. There are so many elements it's hard to figure out how to weight them."

I had a Obama 08 sticker on my car before anybody was even asking him if he would run, ya, waaay back. I knew there would be a calling ...

I waited, soon people were asking him the question, his answer was no.

I waited some more...soon he was running, he also heard the calling.

Why did he have massive support from the start ? ..why did the money flow in so fast ?

Because people believe. they have always believed.... I believe.

We believe the cycle can be broken, we believe the government can fundamentally change, we believe he is the man. He didn't have to run for president for people in Illinois to figure this out.

In politics we see the politician put out the call and the people answer, it's a great start for the people to put out the call, and have the politician answer. Obama has heard the call.

[jwirr]

16. I love to see your enthusiasm. My grandson is one of your group.

BUT I hurt for the future. I am old enough that I can remember feeling that way about JFK, George McGovern, Robert Kennedy and Bill Clinton. It is hard to believe now that all we have to do is follow someone who talks about hope and all will be well.

For the last 7 years *ss & Co. have done everything they can to destroy our nation and for the most part they have succeeded. This is going to take more than hope. I want Obama to give me substance - ways he is going to address these problems - even in some circumstances I want him to acknowledge that he realizes there are this many problems.

I also want him to talk to some of us who are caught in the medical mess that *ss & co. created by privatizing medical programs. I am part of the part D and it is insurance execs (strangers) who decide what is good for me not doctors and the same is happening to my disabled daughter. Obama wants to include the insurance companies instead of have a single payer plan. For that alone I lose hope!

[LeftCoast]

7. This is purely opinion of course, but I think he has a built in advantage

Change seems to be the theme this election and he quite literally embodies change. I think Clinton also would benefit from this except that a) she is too tightly tied to the past and b) the RW has done a good job poisoning the public against her for the last 15-20 years.

OT: In a way, I feel most sorry for Edwards though. In any other election year, he'd get a lot more attention, but we seem to have a bonanza of talented and interesting candidates this time around so it's looking more and more like he drew the short straw.

Even more off topic - It looks like I may actually have to pick a candidate since the CA primary is Feb 5 and it's looking like things won't be finalized until then. WooHOO! I've never had my primary vote count before. This is so exciting. :D

[Blackhatjack]

8. It's a LONG WAY until the Nomination is Decided... Now we will see how well Obama does ...

now that he is the candidate with a win under his belt.

When the focus falls on the new leader in the race, it is entirely different than running just behind.

I see a 'Hillary-type swoon' for Obama during that period of time.

Remember that the 'opposition research' books have only been cracked open so far. There is a lot of 'explaining' that Obama will have to do once the oppo research hits the airways. How well he does in this regard may spell the difference between victory and defeat for the nomination, and ultimately in the General Election.

[cali]

11. you could be right, but I don't think so.

I think it'll be over on Feb 5th. that's not a long time. This year's very compressed schedule works in his favor.

[bigtree]

9. I don't think that's the only dynamic in play

New Hampshire usually advances the candidate they most think will win. I think a good deal of Clinton's aura of invincibility was shattered with her third place finish in Iowa. There isn't enough evidence yet to show that Obama could win over Clinton in a primary in a state like New Hampshire where the majority of voters are white and middle-class to well-off. They still want an 'electable' candidate and I'm not sure his win in Iowa could be easily duplicated in NH where there are much different constituencies in the rural and city precincts. There could be a battle between Edwards (who rose in the polls there today as Clinton fell) and Obama for what I perceive as an anti-Hillary vote, as much as it looks like some validation of Obama.

[cali]

13. Actually, NH is a place where Obama's success in Iowa

can be fairly easily duplicated. I know just about every nook and cranny of the state, and though I agree that Southern and Northern NH are very different, I can't see why the rural areas of the state wouldn't do what the rural areas of Iowa did. NH is becoming increasingly like my state of Vermont, and Obama's support here is huge- and has been since he announced. I don't think it's about an anti-Hillary vote anymore; it's now about the pro-Obama vote

[Skidmore]

10. Obama presents Americans with both a challenge and an opportunity

to step up and reown their nation. He tells us that change is only possible if we undertake it and he will be there to provide the leadership required to make it happen. I trust this man has our interests at heart, and that he will do nothing to put our Constitution in jeopardy. He rings true, and it is our loss as a nation if we lose another leader with such greatness, particularly on this side of the aisle. He has more than charisma. He has an authentic voice which speaks to life lessons contemplated and learned well. Life lessons similar to the ones I learned, as have my friends who support him.

I am hoping the nation chooses to catch this wave because I believe it will carry us far. At this moment in our history change is vitally essential. We need to look forward again and quit looking over our shoulders in either fear or nostalgia. Obama calls for us to look forward and to do something together. My family has committed to join him in creating a new future for our nation.

[NYCGirl]

12. I wish I could recommend your post!

:thumbsup:

[postulater]

14. I'd like to reown my nation.

Unfortunately it is now owned by corporations.

If BO can tell me how he will take my nation back from the corporations I might support him.

So far at least his health care plan doesn't look like he is going to confront the corporations very much.

[EV_Ares]

15. All you have to do is look at the turnout of the independent voters

who turned out for Obama and Edwards & they are not going to vote for Hillary Clinton in November of this year. If it were to become a choice between Clinton and McCain, Clinton and Giuliani, or Clinton and Huckabee, they will sit the election out -- or even vote Republican. And she's not going to get the other independents either -- the ones who really are conservative leaning. If they vote at all, those may go Republican being offered the choice between Republican or Hillary's Republican lite.

Hillary's campaign has been based upon the notion that she is the most "electable" candidate in the Democratic field -- a notion that now stands exposed as a pathetic farce. Independent voters are looking for progressive candidates who will not just talk in buzzwords, but who will act to restore some semblance of Constitutional government in America, and who will end the Iraq war.

Clinton is going to have to make some changes in her campaign strategy which she can do. What she cannot do is change how she is perceived on her positions such as her stand on the Iraq war which she voted for and then on top of that voted to give Bush authority to invade Iran. She also is perceived as the corporate candidate with her positions there. It will be very difficult for her to change that perception with her history on those issues.

Obama is the New Deal and unless he blows it somehow, it is his to lose. Also, when the time comes he will get Edwards voters as well along with Kucinich. I don't know who will go to Hillary. I know the only way I would vote for her is if she should end up winning the Democratic nomination with the present choices we would have on the republican ticket & no Independent candidate yet which may very well change with Bloomberg.