Do you think this will go to the convention?

[Quetzal]

Considering that Hillary has the resources and will not back down anytime soon, that Edwards is expected to do well in South Carolina, and Obama is just a rockstar, it looks like the delegates will be spread out amongst these three candidates. Is it possible we may not have a nominee come the time of the convention and there will be a "political consensus" as to who will be the nominee?

Quetzal

[cali]

1. I seriously doubt it.

Hillary does have the resources but she's kind of boxed herself in. You're right that she won't drop out- nor should she- but she is bleeding support and that will translate into money and press about how she's losing it. Edwards is not projected to do well in SC. He's a very distant third and that won't change due to the fact that 50% of the dem primary voter there is AA. He gets virtually none of it. Of course he should stay in it too, but if he loses every state between now and Feb 5, he'll simply be a curiosity.

[Quetzal]

3. You are right about Edwards being 3rd

I just assumed that he would do well since he did pretty ok there in 2004. If Hillary does win some of the states on Feb. 5th though, I don't see her going anywhere, even if she comes in 2nd or 3rd in every state leading up to Feb. 5th.

[liberalnurse]

2. Yes it will.

Hillary already had this back-up plan secured.She probably didn't think she would need it but then,even Democrats fall for the dreamers with buckets of pseudo promises just like the republicans did for bush.

[Quetzal]

4. I sure was concerned about the Superdelegates

since there are so many of them and they are not controlled by the election process. Is there a tally of the superdelegates out there? I wouldn't be surprised if more of them supported Hillary than Obama.

[cali]

5. Yes. there's a list somewhere and the lion's share of SDs go to

Clinton- but it's hardly written in stone. If she does poorly on Feb 5th they'll abandon her.

[liberalnurse]

9. Yes there is...I think I have it bookmarked some place.

I'll look later after I get some sleep. I worked extra at the hospital last night.

[NewJeffCT]

11. Right now, Clinton has a large majority of the committed SuperDelegates

However, the key word was "committed" as I think only 1/3 of the superdelegates had committed.

And, if Obama keeps on winning, those superdelegates will start rushing to support him as well, and Hillary's early lead in this category won't matter, either.

[Le Taz Hot]

6. Highly doubtful.

The system is set up to ensure a clear "winner" by Super Tuesday in order to avoid a brokered convention. Besides, last I saw, Edwards was polling 3rd at 17% in South Carolina. Obama and Clinton are duking it out for 1st/2nd.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

7. I hope so

because that means the MSM keeps posting stories about the campaign, and the GOP can't hone their strategy against us.

[rateyes]

8. I'd love to see a brokered convention,

and then watch someone nominate Al Gore. That would be swwweeeeeeet.

[KharmaTrain]

10. Not Even Close

The primary system was designed to avoid any convention deadlocks. I think the last time there was even a second round vote was in 1968. The chances for a two-way or three way tie is also highly improbable. The compressed schedule divy out a majority of the delegates over the next month...and I suspect we'll see someone (and NO no prediction or favorite here) will emerge into Tsunami Tuesday where a lion's share of the delegates are. Right now Senator Obama holds some big momentum going into Tsunami Tuesday as the last poll I saw here in Illinois has him winning his home state by a wide margin and I also saw him closing ground on Senator Clinton in California and many other states.

This compressed primary time frame also gives someone with momentum a tremendous advantage as we're seeing right now. If Senator Obama wins in New Hampshire, I don't see anyone beating him in South Carolina and this three-horse race could end even before Tsunami Tuesday.

[KoKo]

12. And those of us with Primaries in May and June....will just sit them out?

That will surely cause some consternation in Democratic Circles.

[KharmaTrain]

14. Welcome To My World

For many years, Illinois primary was in April...long after the national nomination had been sown up. Thus I am used to being a bystander in this game. This year, having the primary moved up, I still expect to be a bystander, but a closer one. My personal focus in the primaries have always been on the local level...the races I can help make a difference in.

All the games that went on this primary system will force the DNC and RNC to revise how things are done the next time around. I'd like to see a series of regional primaries...between April and June (better weather for people to vote) leading up to the Convention and then the General Election. I'm tired of this endless campaigning and the cottage industry its created and the millions it sucks up.

I suspect that once a candidate breaks from the pack, you'll see the vote totals and enthusiasm ramp down...but thanks to Tsunami Tuesday, more people in bigger states will have more interest and possibly a say this year.

Cheers...

[EstimatedProphet]

13. We might find out by April

1 caucus is nowhere enough to determine things, no matter what the bullshit artist pundits say.