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cynatnite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 12:53 PM
Original message
Poll question: Can Obama win in the south?
In '06, Ford came really close to winning here in TN. The polls weren't accurate when compared with the votes. He got almost half and unfortunately it wasn't enough to beat out that no-account crook Corker. I'm of the opinion it was racism that ultimately cost him the race. Either way, he still did much better than anyone had anticipated in a southern state like TN.

So, do you think Obama could win in the south? Could he beat Hillary or Edwards in the south? What about a general election?
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. He's winning South Carolina.
Handedly.
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Yeah, he's winning the Democratic primary. I assume this poll is about
the general election. The "new" Republican Party, or as I call them Dixiecrats Without Sheets, rules down here. Obama might have a chance in Virginia, maybe even in Florida, but we'll have to write off the rest of Dixie if he is our nominee.
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Would you prefer Clinton or Edwards?
Because it appears Southerners, at least South Carolinians, like them even less.
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. We couldn't win South Carolina if Jesus showed up and we nominated him.
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 01:04 PM by Benhurst
That's why I find all the attention focussed on which of our candidates is ahead there an exercise in the theater of the absurd.
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Then why bring up Obama specifically...
when any dem candidate's in the same position?
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Only because many who post on DU place great significance on his
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 01:08 PM by Benhurst
winning there. If Clinton or Edwards were ahead there and their followers were making much ado about it, I would have directed my remarks in their direction.
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Fair enough.
Assuming some of the Southern states are in play, hypothetically, which of the three would have the best shot?
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #18
33. That's a difficult question. I really don't know.
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 01:44 PM by Benhurst
When Harold Ford lost Tennessee, I read an article by one of his friends who said Ford had made a mistake running to the middle. He said his only chance would have been to run hard to the left, taking a strong populist stand, convincing the working-class white Southerners who have been exploited economically almost as badly as the African Americans that their economic interests were the same other working-class Americans, even the blacks.

I don't see Obama's hopeful message being one to effect such a switch on the part of Southern workers, who comprise the base of the "new" Republican Party or be able to overcome the widespread racism which resides just below the surface of the society and fuels what is at its root the old Dixiecrat party, minus the sheets.

I don't see Hillary as having even as much a chance of Obama, in other words, next to none.

Edwards' MIGHT have a chance if his strong, anti-corporate, populist message caught on. But he would (or I guess I should say we would if he were the nominee)be facing long odds against being able to project his message, especially with the rabidly right-wing media down here working tirelessly to paint such views as dangerously radical. His support in the South to date has hardly been overwhelming.

Al Gore might have the best chance of all, especially now that only the dumbest of the dumb have failed to realize he was right about global warming and probably was cheated out of the presidency in 2000. But even if Al were the nominee, I wouldn't bet the farm on his winning in Dixie.

Depressed in Dixie



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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. I would have thought Edwards would have a better chance a few days ago.
But I don't know much about Southern politics, and another DUer was just explaining that Southerners don't like Edwards at all, despite his North Carolinian residency.

Given the SC polls, I thought this person was on to something.
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #35
42. He isn't liked by the whites, nor would any progressive be.
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 02:09 PM by Benhurst
I still think if he could get his populist message out, he might be able to do better than expected. But getting the message out would be most difficult down here.

Several Republican friends have said they would vote for him if he got the nomination; but being friends of mine hardly makes them run of the mill Republicans. None has expressed any interest in jumping over party lines to vote for either Hillary or Obama.

I am descended from a long line of Southern liberals. My grandfather voted for Norman Thomas. A professional man from an "old family," my grandfather was able to get away with such "eccentric" behavior, remaining as they say "one of us" despite his "radical" views.

Men like Gore and Edwards are from the South, but not, regrettably "of" it.
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nonconformist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #18
54. Edwards.
The buzz I hear in Kentucky is all about Edwards.
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #54
58. I would love to think Kentucky is abuzz with positive talk about any of our candidates.
It would be great if we could bring Kentucky back into the Union. (Just kidding!) :rofl:
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Aristus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #11
57. No kidding. There's no way conservative white South Carolinians would vote for
a long-haired "peace-and-love" hippie Jewish Communist. Whenever the Repukes talk about having Jesus on their side, I always assume they're talking about some Cuban-American Repub named "Jèsus", or something. Because based on his teachings in the Gospels, they can't possibly be talking about the carpenter from Nazareth.
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never_get_over_it Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #5
69. Oh sorry
I live in this God Forsaken racist hell hole in central FL - by the time the swiftboaters get through turning him into the scary BLACK MUSLIM jihadist he has NO CHANCE

and if you think I'm nuts I already got and email today about him being a SCARY BLACK MUSLIM working a jihad from the inside....
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The Stranger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
2. With Edwards as his running mate, you bet your ass he can.
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. Edwards isn't going to run as his VP
forget about it. It's actually comical when you think about it. :rofl:

He may choose Obama as his VP, but that's about the only scenario.
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TornadoTN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #9
38. I'm not so sure about that
Call it a hunch, but these two haven't been hammering at each other and have treated each other rather warmly (for a campaign that is). Edward's loves this country and feels strongly about the issues that he believes in, simply put - he wants to make it happen. Obama is much the same. They know that the South (outside of a few pockets) is winnable but its going to take the right ticket to make it happen. I don't think Edwards (or Obama) would turn down a VP nod in the event that either is the nominee.

Why not?
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
3. Absolutely.
In the primary, it's a gimme. A big chunk of Southern Democratic voters are black, and black voters have been going to Obama in droves since the Iowa win.

In the general, it all depends who Obama's up against. He'd actually have a tougher time in the South against, say, Huckabee, than against Giuliani or Romney, in my opinion. But I expect Obama to carry some Southern states regardless of the GOP nominee. It's just a question of how many.
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 12:56 PM
Response to Original message
4. Ford did better than the last three white Democrats who ran
for US Senate from Tennessee. Its not an easy state for Democrats so it can't be blamed on racism alone.

I think Obama will increase black voter turn out by 30% or more. That will put at least two Southern states in play (even if the polls won't show it before election day) and it will help in a few other states like Michigan and Ohio.
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Deep13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
6. They don't want no librul Jeeziss in the South!
Course they don't want no Mormon Jeeziss neither.
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Frances Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. You are right
about their being prejudice against both blacks and Mormons in the South. I think Obama might have a chance against Romney but I think Huckabee would carry most Southern states. But I voted I don't know.
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demnan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 12:59 PM
Response to Original message
7. I wish this weren't true and I can only really speak about VA
but I don't think he will take the whole south. He might take Virginia, where our Governor has endorsed him and there seems to be a good organization for them. But Virginia's nothern part is its most populated and is moderately Democratic leaning.

In the southern parts of Virginia no Democrat will be able to swing it. I'm afraid you will find that's true in a lot of southern states.

I think we also have to stand up and make sure now that voting lists aren't purged of voters. The Justice Department is encouraging this and look for the states with Republican Govenors to do it.

I don't think it is significantly different for any Democrat, except that Obama might improve voter turnout which would be good.
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. Mississippi and Louisiana have sizable minority populations...
...if he campaigns hard down there and gets people energized about voting for the first Black president in History and undoing the mistakes of Katrina...

...he could win those states in a walk. Do you think they'd vote for another GOP president after 2005?
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Glorfindel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:21 PM
Response to Reply #17
27. Most white Mississippians would vote for Satan if he ran as a RePuke
They'd vote for G. W. B*shit again if they could.
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lastliberalintexas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #17
31. You don't know my fellow southerners very well
Yeah, they'll vote for the repubs again, even after Katrina and Rita. In fact, probably even more so now that so many of the "undesirables" have been permanently displaced after those storms.
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last_texas_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #17
43. I don't see MS as a possibility
and LA would be a very long-shot. MS seems to vote based upon race more than any other state. In the 2000 election, I think I remember seeing some stats in which black Mississippians had voted 95-percent for Gore (even more heavily Democratic than blacks nationally) while whites had voted 80-percent for Bush. That "80-percent" is not a typo, as scary as it reads. As long as whites make up the majority of the state's population by a decent margin and continue to vote Republican based upon their race, no Democrat can win MS.

LA seems to be a little more of a possibility than MS, but that isn't saying much. Clinton did carry LA in '92 and '96, but since 1996 LA has become much more of a "red" state. They just elected a Repug governor, and in '04 replaced a conservative Dem with a diaper-wearing Repug fundy. Landrieu had a tough re-election and will likely have another close race this time around. Plus, New Orleans lost a large chunk of their black population with Katrina, changing the face of the state and making it more and more red.
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Virginia Dare Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #7
21. I saw a poll some time over the summer...
Obama was polling well among independents in Virginia, even back then. I was kind of shocked. There are some interesting stats about Obama in the WAPO today too and his support in majority black areas in the south.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/07/AR2008010703044.html?sid=ST2008010703340
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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #7
59. Question: Do we have a primary in VA?
Hate to sound stupid...just moved here last year and no one I have asked seems to know if we have a primary here!

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polichick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
12. He'll need some Western states to counteract...
...those he doesn't get in the South ~ think Richardson as veep!
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lastliberalintexas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #12
34. The West is where it's at
I can't understand the fascination with the south that the 2 parties have- the western states will likely be the only way we win this year. I wish the national Dems would almost ignore the south and focus their efforts on areas of the country we have a chanc ein hell of winning. And I say that as a southerner.
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last_texas_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #34
47. I agree
I think the Democrats have a hard time giving up the south because it was always theirs for so many decades. Plus, in recent decades several of the states that have experienced substantial population growth have been in the south, so they don't want to give up on the possibility of that electoral strength. However, I think that targeting certain western states is definitely the way to go. In many ways, the majority views of southerners are quite out of step with the views of the country as a whole, just like the views of the Republican Party's right-wing base. The Democrats would be better served by concentrating on a number of Western states (outside of Repug strongholds like WY, UT, and ID) and perhaps some border states and trying to confine the Repugs to the southern and plains states; with only those states to work with, the Repugs would never have enough votes to win a Presidential election.
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:04 PM
Response to Original message
14. Some states, yes. Others, no.
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racaulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
15. I think he will do well in the primaries in the South, but I'm not sure about in the GE.
We have never had one of the major parties nominate anyone other than a Caucasian male before, so there is no precedent to judge whether or not his race alone will have any factor on the decisions of voters in the GE in those states. I do think that his candidacy would lead to higher voter registrations and higher turnout among young voters and African American voters. Anything that gets anyone interested in voting is a good thing in my book. :)

Whether or not he wins any of the southern states in the GE, I hope (if he gets the nomination) that he will have long coattails that will get more Dems elected to the House and Senate in those states, both at the federal and state levels. I definitely think he has that potential.

And I agree about Ford, I believe that racism ultimately cost him the Tennessee Senate race. The dirty campaign tactics from Corker's camp that played on the racist fears of the citizens of that state.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:10 PM
Response to Original message
19. I voted yes but, I believe any of our candidates can win the South
because Junior has performed so horribly.
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riverdeep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
20. He can win in a primary, but not General.
He could win the primary in no small part to way he played both sides of the anti-gay endorser. Blacks are pretty conservative when it comes to gay issues, especially black churches.

But in the general, no way. The thought of a black man as president, as someone who is above them (even though plenty of blacks are above them already in terms of income or public exposure or other measures of superficial success), they cannot handle that. To make it so visible, that a black man is superior to you, it's too much to take.
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Virginia Dare Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:12 PM
Response to Original message
22. I had to answer maybe, although I hope the answer is yes...n/t
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ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:13 PM
Response to Original message
23. Don't confuse the Primary's with the General Election in the South - Not good for us.
No matter how strong the support seems to be for him in the Primaries down that way you still have to keep in mind that only Democrats vote in Democratic Primaries. So percentage of vote is pretty much meaningless in the face of a party that is outnumbered in most of the south.

If 35% of the vote is Democratic it doesn't mean much that 90% of that vote goes to one candidate - he or she still gets killed in the General Election. Add to that the race problem that persists in the south almost as bad today as it was when I was a kid and "No Service to Coloreds" was the sign of the day. I am that old, I saw it when I was a kid and buddy, anybody that tells you its no longer prevalent in the south is full of shit. It will kill Obama and because of the torrent of hatred that has been spewed on the Clintons for the last decade there's not much chance for Hillary down there either. Think what you will about Edwards, he is still the only one we have that stands a prayer in the south. So, do you need the south to get elected? Some say no, some say there's no way you can get elected without taking something down there.
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RebelOne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:17 PM
Response to Original message
24. If my redneck son who even uses the "N" word says that
he is going to vote for Obama, he has a pretty good chance here in Georgia.
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Xenotime Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #24
67. Wow. There is so many things wrong I don't know where to begin.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:18 PM
Response to Original message
25. This poll doesn't make sense.
You're mixing the primaries with the general.

And you're all over the place in other ways.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:20 PM
Response to Original message
26. With Obama you will see record AA turnout and he can win
enough of the white vote to win several states I think.
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
28. Anyone that voted NO is not from the South.
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Didereaux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. I'm in Texas jackass and we invented Bush and filled the slot with Perry, now tell us all again ...
That Obama, can take this state. I will grudgingly concede he has a chance in Florida and South Carolina and Virginia...but LA,Miss,TX,Ala,Tenn,WVir,NCar,Kent,Missouri,Oklahoma not a chance in hell.
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SKKY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #32
65. Actually, he has a very good chance in Kentucky...
...And considering they just voted out a Republican Governor (The only 1 in the last 34 years), I'd say Kentucky has gone from Red to a shade of purple. Depending on who is running mate is, I'd say he has a very good chance in Kentucky.
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #28
36. Really? What part of the South do you live in? It must be considerably more progressive
than my neck of the woods, which as areas of the South go, is not a particularly bad one.
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last_texas_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #28
37. I'm from the south and voted no
It's unlikely any of the Democratic candidates would win more than one or two southern states, and quite possible that they might not win any. No Democratic candidate has carried a majority of the southern states since Jimmy Carter in '76; why would this election somehow be different? Obama certainly has a shot at winning southern primaries, but carrying southern states in the general election? At best, I would think FL, AR, and VA would be the only southern states up for grabs, and none of those would be easy wins.
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #37
52. I'm hoping NC will be up for grabs, but that's only because I live there. I fear you are right.
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last_texas_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #52
63. NC does seem to be becoming more competitive
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 03:57 PM by last_texas_dem
on the Presidential level. I believe it was one of the few (perhaps the only) southern states that the Democratic ticket did better in in 2004 than in 2000. I'm not sure they will be attainable in 2008 regardless of who our candidate is. (I'm an Edwards supporter, but I believe he would have a hard fight winning his home state if he were able to get the nomination.) But I do think they are a southern state moving in the "blue" direction, unlike others like LA, TN, GA, etc. that seem to be doing the opposite.

ON EDIT: NC might actually be a more likely possibility for a Democrat to consider than AR, which I included in my earlier post. I was mostly thinking of AR in the even that Clinton is the candidate; although, she probably wouldn't have a shot if the Repug candidate was Huckabee. AR still seems to be fairly Democratic to a certain extent (both Senators and three out of four U. S. Reps are "D"), but Shrub did win by a pretty decent margin in the state, so Presidential elections, as is the case with so many southern states, may be an entirely different consideration.
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TornadoTN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #28
41. I'm from the South - I think he's got a tough road
But I think he's got a shot in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia if he's the nominee. However, I honestly don't believe Hillary has a snowballs chance to take any southern state (even Florida) if she's the nominee.
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nonconformist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #28
55. I voted NO, and I live in the south
I really honestly think that he'll have a lot of trouble with the south.
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lastliberalintexas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:34 PM
Response to Original message
29. 30 people actually think he can win the South?
:wtf:

Neither Obama nor any other Dem is likely to win any Southern state in 2008, I am sorry to say. Wait until the preachers start their sermons, not even Jesus H Christ could win on the Dem ticket in the south. I say this as a lifelong southerner who is ashamed of the current political climate of my area.

Obama *might* have the best chance to win 1 or 2 southern states, IF he can actually continue to deliver the 1st time voters (not likely if historical trends hold up, but you never know) and IF the media hold back on the inevetible hatchet job headed the direction of any Dem. Otherwise, he's just as toasted as any other Dem.

Go WEST, young man. That's the region that takes the Dems to victory this year, if at all.
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Didereaux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 01:36 PM
Response to Original message
30. He CANNOT win the general in the South for two main reasons...
1. The South is still 60% or more hard core religious and librul=secular=devil himself. And they are registered Repugnants
2. he is black to 100% of the suthrins, and muslim to probably half of them. Facts and reason have long been removed from life in these parts.

These are the facts, so Obama absolutely MUST carry all other states in order to win in the general. Even if he controlled all the Diebold machines, that is one tall order to fill.

It will take extraordinary talent and a huge well oiled, dedicated and intelligent organization to overcome that complete loss of the Southern bloc. And do not forget their are quite a number of areas in the other regions that are the equal of the average southern state in those two problem areas.
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TornadoTN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #30
44. Could you be more inflamatory to those of us in the South next time?
I'm from the South, I think he's got a shot in TN, NC, and VA but it's going to be a tough road and nothings guaranteed.

However, to say that "100%" of us "Suthrins" think he's black is purely ignorant and insulting. Further, 60% of us aren't hardcore religious nor are we Repugnican. If you were talking about Alabama and Mississippi, maybe, but not as a whole. Most people here don't even identify with a party or even vote.

The fact that Obama happens to be partially of African-American descent isn't just going to be a problem in the South. I can guarantee that you'll find racist scum all across this nation, in every single town and corner of the map.
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Bright Eyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:03 PM
Response to Original message
39. I've asked this before but nobody answered me;
What makes you think that those in the south (or the north) who'd refuse to vote for Obama in the GE because he's black, would vote Democrat AT ALL? Those people are probably Republican. They wouldn't vote Democrat no matter who wins the nomination.
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #39
46. Corporate America has screwed the working-class white Southerner
Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 02:22 PM by Benhurst
just as badly as it has African Americans.

If Obama were running a populist campaign, I would give him a long shot at scoring some significant victories in the general election. But his hope-filled, cotton-candy, why-can't-we-all-get-together message which works so well with the youth, independents and many Democratic voters in the north, won't play that well down here.

Race is still a major problem. And his being able to capture the liberal/African-American majority in a Southern DEMOCRATIC primary, counts for little in a general election. The Repulicans still rule the roost down here. The only way the South is going to change is for the white working-class Southerner to be shown that his/her economic interests are the same as those of working-class blacks. When that day comes, but not until it comes, we will be able to put the sorry history of Jim Crow finally to rest.
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Bright Eyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #46
50. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that mean that NO Democrat
can win the south?

I agree that Obama winning votes in the primaries in the south mean little.

But registered Republicans in the south are going to vote against any Democrat, whether that happens to be Obama, Clinton, Edwards etc.

This election will probably be won by Independent votes, who seem to overwhelming like Obama.
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #50
51. I think Al Gore, if he had run, would have had a chance of picking up
a handful of Southern states.

If, and I stress if, Edwards could get his progressive message across, I think he would be able to pick up a few, but probably fewer than Al.

I'm afraid Obama would lose the South; but hold out a little hope for Virginia, especially if Northern Virginia came through for him in a big way.
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:03 PM
Response to Original message
40. One Anomaly is Guaranteed: The exit polls would NOT match the vote.
The vote for Obama would be far lower than the exit polls indicate. You can take that to the bank.

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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #40
48. And not only in the South.
I'm afraid, no matter who our candidate is, we may very well be in for our third stolen presidential election.

And our two candidates whom the corporate media at one time or another has tried to portray as inevitable, would play into the "America wasn't ready for a black" or "America isn't ready for a woman" mantra the talking heads are prepared to shovel out to the public to rationalize the theft.

Which is not to say, a bullshit excuse wouldn't be attempted to explain away the "loss" of any of our other candidates.
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Tierra_y_Libertad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:11 PM
Response to Original message
45. He's more likely to do better than Hillary would.
And, Edwards is more likely to do better than either.

But, I doubt that "the South" is going to have as much effect on this election as it has in previous ones.
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TornadoTN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #45
49. Agreed on both counts - the South likely won't be the battleground
It could be close in a few states (TN, NC, VA, FL), but the real battleground will likely be in the West.

Edwards as either nominee or VP candidate would solidify a lot of that, although Obama is likely going to draw a lot of support that traditionally doesn't vote and Independents. It's going to be interesting to watch this thing shape up.
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Kucinich4America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:08 PM
Response to Original message
53. Comparing Harold Ford to Barack Obama is ridiculous.
Sure, racism is a factor, but what racist is going to vote for a Democrat anyway? Yes, I saw the ad they ran against Ford, and it was horrible, but the fact is, Ford lost NOT because he's a black man, or even a "black man who dates white women", but because he's a spineless DLC hack who didn't have any discernible differences from his Republican opponent, Corker.

Naturally the racists voted for Corker anyway. But the rest of the state went by the old Harry Truman rule. "Given a choice between a Republican, and a Democrat who acts like a Republican, the Republican wins every time."

And so he did. But don't weep for Harold Ford. He got kicked upstairs to be the chair of the Dumbassed Little Cowards.

Barack Obama is nothing like Ford. He may be trying to get independents and the few sane Republicans who remain on this planet to take a serious look at him, but if they ARE sane, they won't be voting for Mittens, Huckster, or 9u11iani in the first place. And he won't be appearing at any KKK rallies trying to get the racist vote.

The South Carolina primary is going to be an Obama-Edwards contest. Hillary wouldn't have had a chance there regardless of how she did in Iowa or New Hampshire. As far as the General Election goes..... that's a long way off. Using the 50 state strategy the way Howard Dean explained it to begin with (guys in pickup trucks... yada yada yada) its possible that Obama could be competitive in the South. Edwards as well.
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cynatnite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #53
61. Well, I was wondering how Obama might do here in TN...
and looking at Ford's results. To be able to compete here in TN anyone with common sense would know that you have to walk a very fine line which means having some very repuke-like attributes. It's just the way it is here and any candidate with half a brain would know that. We had two choices when it came to Ford and Corker. Ford...the pro-choice Dem who supported some of Bush's policies or Corker...the anti-choice crook who got into bed with oil companies and parroted all of bush's policies. So, Ford was the obvious choice for a lot of Dems.

In the end, I do think it was racism that ultimately led to Ford's losing. I just hope it's different for Obama should he win the nomination.
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melm00se Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:12 PM
Response to Original message
56. places in the
south that have a large(r) number of transplants (Atlanta, Charlotte, parts of NC and the like): probably; the deep south (rural Alabama, rural Mississippi) probably not.

If he is the democratic candidate, he'll probably win: GA, NC, SC, VA & FL and probably lose: TN, KY, LA, MS and AL.
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RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
60. Until recently, I would have said no way...
But his Iowa showing and subsequent momentum going into NH suggest otherwise.

There is something beyond polls and pundits that is happening with Obama, some how his message has appealed to a layer deep down in folks - and that message is one of hope.

This Obama wave may indeed be big and broad enough to even swing a few NASCAR dads --- that happens, he wins in the south and he wins in the GE.
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auburngrad82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 03:44 PM
Response to Original message
62. I'm an old white guy in North Carolina and I'll vote for him if he's nominated
But that's just me...
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #62
64. There are a fair number of us,
but not enough I fear.

:hi:
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IndianaJones Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
66. Don't need it...doesn't matter. nt.
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theboss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 04:45 PM
Response to Original message
68. Obama won't need the South
The polling regarding Obama is kind of incredible.

He buries every republican contender in Iowa.
He buries everyone in PA.
He is considered the most likely president by 18 points.

Within a few weeks, he will have a huge lead in Florida and Ohio.

He could win all the normal blue states along the coast and in the northeast, some randowm midwest states and all the swing states. The GOP will be reduced to Dixie - with the possible exception of Virginia in which Warner probably walks to a Senate victory and brings Obama with him.
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Firespirit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
70. No. No Democrat can. But it's not necessary.
It really has nothing to do with racism and everything to do with party affiliation. I used to live in the South. For national elections it's all about that (R).

Much of the Democratic part of Louisiana is now located in Texas.

We *might* have a chance in Florida, but I'm not holding my breath.

However, all we need to do is to hold what we won in 2004 and pick up Ohio. And I'd like to win NM, NV, and MO. That is very, very doable.
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michreject Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
71. It would be hard
I don't believe so.
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MedleyMisty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 06:19 PM
Response to Original message
72. I am so gd tired of this "All Southerners are racist!" crap.
When people go on about that, I hear "I'm racist and in denial about it so I project it on to a group that makes an easy target and beat them up and openly express one prejudice to make myself feel better about the suppressed prejudice."

I do know our history, but I also know the history of the entire damn species and let me tell you, we don't have a monopoly on prejudice.

And yeah, he has a chance to win here. And he'd probably have more of a chance if we didn't get told how much we suck and how racist we are all the time - of course your average uninformed person is going to vote Republican if all he hears from the Democrats is that he's stupid and ignorant and racist. Hell, the city I live in is just 55% white so right there you fail - how can everyone in the South be a white supremacist if we're not all white?

The South is the region with the largest concentration of African American people (again, think about that when you paint all Southerners with the fat white Christan male NASCAR and country music fan brush), which I would think would be a decent point in Obama's favor if there wasn't any cheating. But guess what, the Republicans cheat. Plus there's freaking national institutional racism and legal/penal system corruption that results in a disproportionate amount of African American males being convicts who can't vote. So when most people don't even vote and a lot have their right to vote taken away and what votes there are aren't counted fairly, where do you get off judging millions of people as if they're one entity based on election results?

Also, for the people who claim to live here - I don't know, maybe you live in some fancy whites only neighborhood that's full of old people who grew up back when it was acceptable or something, or maybe you just need to do better on choosing your friends and not hang out with prejudiced people so much. In my social circle (to give you a hint of which circle that is, most of my RL friends in recent years worked with me at Arby's) interracial couples are almost the norm. And everyone listens to hip hop and rap and hard rock and classic rock and no one listens to country (heh, I think there's just one country music station left on the dial around here) and if anyone is religious at all it's just the normal background beliefs I grew up with and pay lip service to sort of religion. I'm not saying that there's no racism here anymore and that it's all happy and kumbayah, but I don't see anything that would indicate that we're more racist than the rest of the nation as a whole. Of course some individuals are more prejudiced and others are less prejudiced, because people are actually individuals and not all cardboard cutouts of a stereotype.

I was born a Southerner, and I was born a fighter against prejudice. We do have a cultural fondness for lost causes. ;)

Sorry for the rant - it's just that the whole attitude of "The rest of the country is pure and stainless and always has been and if it hadn't been for the nasty dirty South we'd have had an African American female president with a Native American vice president by 1784." gets on my freaking nerves because it's so hypocritical and denies that prejudice exists outside of the South while displaying massive amounts of stereotyping and judging based on some attribute that you're born with and prejudice. And like I said above, the South has the largest concentration of African American people and a lot of the areas held up here as examples of pure equality and diversity are mostly white. I would bet that a lot of the people who stand in judgement and look down their noses at Southerners based on some stupid stereotype created by the media have never been around people who didn't look like them enough to face their own prejudices.
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cynatnite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-08-08 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #72
73. I live in the south and I'm white...
middle class, I guess. Live on a dead end street with a total of three houses on it. Like everyone here...I've got my own opinions and I wanted to know other folks' thoughts as well.

I wasn't attempting to make any sweeping judgments.

If Iowa and New Hampshire is any indication turnout will be crucial if Obama is to win whether it's primary or general election. If turnout's high, I think he'll win easily no matter who the repuke nomination is.
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