Beware the NH Primary

[berni_mccoy]

Just a note to all those who don't know about how NH's primary voting works. You don't need to be affiliated with a party to vote. In fact, you can change your party affiliation, vote and then change it back. There are even stations to do this AT THE POLLS. So when you hear about a party's ballots running out, the reason could be any number of things:

1. Indies voting one way or the other
2. Large turnout for one side
3. Both 1 and 2
4. One side manipulating the others primary (yes, this does happen, even though it's unlikely)

I've seen reports of Dem ballots running out and people speculating about large turnout. I don't think any conclusions can be drawn other than the order of likeliness of the above items.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. thanks for pointing these things out

Like you, I think it is unlikely that the GOP would be manipulating this primary. With the Huckabee vote in IA, it seems that the powers that run that party have troubles of their own.

[sarge43]

3. Plus the state ledge and executive went Dem in 06.

Unlikely they purposely allow the Dem ballots to run out. We have between 40% to 45% Independents registered in NH and looks like they're grabbing the blue ballot in big numbers.

[ginnyinWI]

2. In Wisconsin last time

There were reports of right-wing radio talkers telling their listeners to go out and vote for Edwards to try to stop Kerry. We also have open primaries. It does happen.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. But this time, there isn't an incumbant

Republican in the White House to protect. I don't see as many Republicans willing to act as spoilers for the Dems when the candidacy for the GOP is up for grabs.

[TornadoTN]

8. Agreed - they have their own major issues to deal with

I don't see many Republican's willing to crossover and throw a vote to a very hot candidate to insure his win in NH. He's doing just fine on his own and they have to contend with some major conflicts within their own primary. 2004 I think it happened, but this time around if it is happening it's minuscule.

[ginnyinWI]

9. true--they'd have to use up their vote to spoil the Dems' n/t

[IDemo]

4. I'd be surprised if the actual percentage of crossover votes was significant

Unless there were big pushes to do this from the pulpits and the phone banks, most voters are simply not going to be motivated to vote for an opposing party candidate.

[Skink]

5. Republicans probably won't vote for hillary in the primary on...

general principle but it would be the best way to hedge their bet.

[sarge43]

10. Registered Repubs can't vote for Hillary or any other Dem

in this primary or any primary for that matter. Simply put, if you're registered with a party, you get the ballot with that slate of candidates. It's the registered Independents (close to half the voters in this state are Indies) who can choose either slate and they're calling the shots today.

[MannyGoldstein]

7. So Why Is This A Negative Thing?

What NH does is a better representation of what will happen in the general election, where people can vote for whoever they want. I can assure you that people in NH won't cross over the screw with the outcome - they might in other states, but not NH.

[berni_mccoy]

11. I didn't mean to make it negative, only to caution interpretation of results

Media is blowing things out of proportion again.