John Edwards will do well in S Carolina

[OzarkDem]

Last night pretty well refutes the reliability of the "polling on steroids" in the primary race. The predictions that Obama would win in SC by 40% or more seem rather ludicrous.

I predict John Edwards will win there.

[Labors of Hercules]

1. I hope ye be right!

:toast:

[mnhtnbb]

2. I agree that Edwards is going to do better than the pundits and polls

are predicting.

[shadowknows69]

3. If/When he does it could shift the whole momentum

At least cost one of the two front runners some votes. That's if the media even announces the win. I can see the headline. "Clinton/Obama still fighting it out after respectable Southern showing"

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. If he does not win there, he is toast

[shadowknows69]

5. granted

[OzarkDem]

No, Super Tuesday is the big day

[Freddie Stubbs]

11. Without any momentum coming out of SC, he will be little more than an afterthought on Super Tuesday

[Evergreen Emerald]

6. Isn't it his home turf? He was Senator of North Carolina

he should do well there.

[Freddie Stubbs]

12. He was born and raised in SC

[Virginia Dare]

7. He needs a win now, no doubt about it...n/t

[ccpup]

8. he's currently trending 3rd at 15%

in the (not to be trusted at all) Polls. Just fyi.

[Blarch]

9. I think he will do well everywhere

but that isn't good enough.

[Buttercup McToots]

10. He needs more money...

Alot more money...
I'll keep sending him as much as I can...
President John Edwards...on that I am concentrating...

[cali]

13. What are you basing your speculation on?

Fact: 50% of dem primary voters there are African American.
Fact: The majority of those voters support Obama
Fact Edwards is polling under 15%in SC. The polls were off last night re Clinton and Obama. They were accurate about Edwards
Fact: Edwards is polling so badly among AA voters there, that his support is barely measurable

How do you see Edwards peeling off AA voters? What could he do to persuade them not to vote for an AA candidate with a compelling history of working for the disenfranchised in the inner city? How can he peel them off from Clinton, considering the enormous regard that AA voters have for the Clintons?

Edwards will not gain momentum from his distant 3rd place finish in NH. He is far behind in NV and will likely come in a distant third there.

I'm as likely to win the lottery as Edwards is to win SC.

[Le Taz Hot]

14. Last I heard Edwards was polling at

about 17% in SC, a distant third behind Hillary and Obama (don't remember the exact order). He seems to be polling and the NH results seem to have him consistently between 15% - 20%. I'm not sure why South Carolinians wouldn't be going for their native son but, from what SC DUers have said, the deciding factor will be African-American votes and that demographic seems to be split between Clinton and Obama.

Anyone from SC have any more insight?

[harun]

15. I think John will win there (n/t)

[skipos]

16. Even if John DOUBLES what is predicted, he will still come in 3rd.

And SC was the only state he won in 2004.
I'd love for him to win the nom, but the over-optimism gets a little delusional around here for me.
He put all of his eggs in the IA basket and it didn't go as well as hoped.
How about a friendly wager? I will go beyond him not winning, I say he comes in 3rd.