Any Chance Cuba restricitons will be lifted?

[BayCityProgressive]

I know many Democrats are now speaking of loosening the restrictions on Cuba. DO you guys think any let up will happen? History says no. Any Dem presidential candidate who has the balls to vote to remove restrictions will have my full support. I am pretty optimistic that at least Kucinich will.

[Ignacio Upton]

1. Maybe when Fidel dies

I've heard that Raul may move communism in Cuba under a Chinese-style hybrid, or something close to it.

[BayCityProgressive]

2. hm

I had heard he is more hard-line like Che was and that his daughter favors Glastnost and perestroika like reforms. Prime Minister Alarcorn has said that Social Democracy is a workable system while others in the parliament are hardliners. I don't think it will change a whole lot. The constitution was improved in 1992 to allow other parties, however no parties can nominate candidates, and also opened up other areas and allowed for more direct democracy. Mariala Castro, Raul's daughter, supports sex changes being covered by government medical care and has given instructions to police on overcoming homophobia.

[Ignacio Upton]

4. On the bright side, Paul is pretty old himself

And it took the deaths of three Soviet hardliners for Gorbachev to come to power.

[proud patriot]

3. It's pretty low on the priority list at this point

However I would love to someday travel there legally .
as An American citizen I don't like the idea that I'm
told where I can't go ...ya know?

[Hamlette]

5. Not as long as Lieberman is around n/t

[killbotfactory]

6. No way.

It would improve life in Cuba and they can't allow that to happen.

[JohnnyRingo]

7. My guess is after Fidel dies the propaganda here will lean toward

how "Raul is different than Fidel"
"He loves capitalism and is nothing like his brother".

Of course they're two heads of the same coin, but I think Big Money here has been salivating at the prospect of getting back in the action in Cuba.

I think the passing of Fidel will give the excuse to "extend an olive branch" to Havana and offer to pump billions into their economy in the form of tourism, trade, and of course military presence.

I'm thinking with the recent interest in corn ethanol (and rising prices) all that sugar cane in Cuba is looking pretty good right now. Soon we'll see soft drink manufacturers and others making the switch from high fructose corn syrup to cane sugar.

It goes without saying that it would be a very popular destination for the armada of cruise ships, which while based in Island nations for tax purposes, funnel all that vacation money into the pockets of good old American investors. they've been missing out on a good thing. The novel travel to Cuba after 50 years will inspire cruises for years to come.

Finally, with Raul Castro wrapped around our finger and riding high on newfound riches which will likely be good for his people in general, we'll extort him into accepting military bases to help keep Chavez in line and as a naval port, project our forces to cover corporate interests (present and future) in South America.

I've been thinkin' about this since Fidel took ill last year, and with our cooperation with Communist countries elsewhere, (lookin' at you China) I think stubborn pride (and Fidel) is all that's holding the scions of business back.

[GreenZoneLT]

8. Don't bet on cheap Cuban sugar

I thought Raul was a more orthodox Marxist than Fidel.

I think you're correct that Fidel's death may be all it takes for political cover to end the boycott. I'm kind of hoping that Cuba transitions to some sort of authoritarian government that allows free enterprise, and builds up its middle class before transitioning to democracy (as Brazil and Argentina did). If they try to go straight to liberal democracy, especially if Bush is still in office, criminals will take over just the way the way they did in Eastern Europe, which leads to Haiti-style violent anarchy or back to dictatorship.

Sugar could be cheap now if the corn and domestic sugar growers' lobby hadn't bribed Congress into imposing tariffs and giving them subsidies. It's absolutely nuts the way we're wrecking a fabulosly valuable fishery in the Florida Bay to enrich a few sugar families.

Oh, and we already HAVE a naval base in Cuba. It's not far enough from the U.S. to really need much of a forward presence there, anyway, and there's not much of a reason for forward-deployment to the Caribbean, anyway. If we want to bully Chavez, we can do it any time we want without needing a Cuba base. Venezuela's military is fairly negligible.

[Thothmes]

9. Restrictions

I would like to see the restrictions removed immediately. With us being the only country to observe them, what is the point. However, with presidential elections ahead in 08, I do not look for any Democratic or Republican candidate to openly call for and end to those restrictions. The heavy Cuban population in Florida makes that a non starter.