What happens if Michigan is allowed to have their delegates restored

[Emit]

Does that mean Hillary gets all of Michigan's delegates?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MI

I have read that the superdelegates from Michigan might be allowed to have their delegates counted. Does anyone know if the DNC might allow Florida and Michigan's delegates to be included?

... The net effect of the DNC's banning Michigan's 156 delegates from participating in next summer's presidential nomination process will be a penalty that is not enforced:

"I don't think it'll affect much of anything. All of the nominees said they'd seat delegates. We'll have delegates in August. (The exclusion) is not expected to be enforced," DeRoche said, noting it would reflect poorly on the candidates during the presidential election in November if they were not to allow the votes of two states as sizable as Michigan and Florida during the primary process.

Yes, it would be a disaster. Since all the candidates are apparently already on the record for allowing Michigan's delegates to the convention, that makes the Jan 15th contest there much more than a "beauty contest" as there are going to be 156 delegates that are chosen.

If either Obama or Edwards wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, their campaign choosing to skip out of Michigan will be looked back on as the most stupid strategic move of the election. Instead of having the opportunity to put Clinton away, not only will they be letting Clinton claim a win, but we'll also see the contest shift from 'who won' each state to 'who has the most delegates' for the nomination-- very favorable to Clinton.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2007/12/michigan-delegate-update.html

[Kittycat]

1. I think the DNC would get sued, and some sort of block would be put up

Didn't they ask Obama & Edwards (and all of them) to sign some sort of agreement to pull out?

BTW - I could be totally wrong here, but I thought that was the case.

[SharonRB]

2. Since uncommitted got more than 15% of the vote

there will be uncommitted delegates elected at our district conventions in March. Of course, at this point we don't know if they'll ever get seated.

[iamjoy]

3. Not If They're Uncomitted

Some Democratic leaders in Michigan encouraged their citizens who didn't want to vote for Hillary to vote for "Uncomitted." If Michigan's delegates are restored, Clinton will not automatically get these delegates. According to CNN, 37% are uncomitted.

Uncomitted means the delegates are not pledges to ANY of the candidates, so anything can happen.

[Emit]

5. Like they would split the uncommitteds?

By proportion?

So this still gives Hillary an unfair advantage for having kept her name on the ballot.

I'm so confused. :)

[iamjoy]

11. Not Exactly

Michigan (like Florida) is banking on the DNC backing down and inviting its delegates to the convention. The "uncommitted delegates" could then go for whichever candidate they choose (who is still running). So, assuming no one else drops out, each uncommitted delegate could go for Kucinich, Obama or Edwards (or even Clinton, although there would be little point).

But, the people who want to be delegates have doubtless communicated to people within their party the candidate they are supporting. Uncommitted is just a technicality to get around the DNC rules and fact that candidates pulled out of Michigan. When the state holds its caucuses to select delegates (based on the primary results) there will be no "uncommitted"


At least, that's if I understand it correctly.

[Emit]

14. Thanks for your input

I'm trying to figure out if there is an unfair advantage to Clinton for her having left her name on the ballot. Thanks again. :hi:

[seriousstan]

4. Pigs will fly.

[Hoof Hearted]

6. I didn't think that was a possibility. n/t

[DurShar]

7. Hillary will have just had a good day.

Todays primary would have been 128 delegates and the 28 superdelegates. The superdelegates are unpledged so they are fair game to everyone.

So my estimate if Michigan gets its delegates back.

Hillary 78 + superdelegates
Uncommitted 50 + superdelegates

Kucinich will get 1 or 2 delegates in the mix somewhere.

[Emit]

8. Sneaky! n/t

[TahitiNut]

9. So... she spent NOTHING in the state. Lots of folks stayed away. And she benefits.

:puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke:

[NoPasaran]

12. Even after campaigning in the state, Kucinich got 4%

That's way below the 15% threshold for getting delegates.

[DurShar]

15. The threshold isn't statewide.

He may have squeezed out 15% in any specific congressional district. Kucinich could also get one or more unpledged delegates (superdelegates) who are not bound by any vote count and can support anyone they choose.

[NoPasaran]

16. Well, even looking at county-by-county results

Here it doesn't look good. DK got 10% in one county, there's a smattering of 7, 8, or 9 percents... And a bunch of ones and twos, including a few where Chris Dodd outpolled him. That said, I don't know how the counties correspond to the CDs (or however Michigan allocates its delegates), so I suppose it's possible that there might be a delegate in there.

I also don't see what any superdelegates (who by definition are party insiders) would gain by climbing on the Kucinich train.

[Truth2Tell]

10. My understanding is that if Hillary

locks up a majority of the remaining delegates before Denver the disputed delegates will almost certainly be seated. The only way they wouldn't be seated is if Obama and/or Edwards have a majority of the remaining delegates at the convention AND the disputed delegates would tip the scales back to Hillary. Then you likely wouldn't see them seated.

Whoever controls the majority of the other undisputed delegates at the convention will control the rules.

[KharmaTrain]

13. Michigan WIll Have Its Super Delegates

While the state may lose its elected delegates, it still will be represented at the Convention by the party aparachniks who comprise the Super Delegates. This includes every Michigan Democratic Congressperson, both Senators, the Governor and party leaders around the state.

Without a real election I can't see a credentials fight at the Convention of delegates not being seated as I didn't see any delegate being elected last night. Maybe a Michigander can set us straight.

Cheers...