Please Name a Southern State that Hillary Would Comfortably Win in the General Election.

[NoodleyAppendage]

I'm so friggin' sick of these delusional folks around her who seem to think that Hillary will handedly win the general election. All of the polling up to this point put the general election around 50/50 in any match up between Hillary and the Repuke candidate field. She will have to capture at least one or two Southern states to win the general (shades of 2000 Florida coming to mind), so for those so convinced that she will win the general election...please provide evidence to support your conviction.

Which, if any, Southern states will Clinton win comfortably? By comfortably, I mean by 12-15% margin to beat the inevitable voter fraud attempts that we know are coming regardless of the Dem candidate.

Please point to a prior or current NATIONAL poll that shows that Clinton beats the likely Repuke candidate by at least 10% points.

Come on. Stand by what I think are delusional convictions that the general will be a cake walk with Hillary as our candidate.

J

[Fresh_Start]

1. Florida NT

NT

[papau]

12. THAT WAS TOO EASY - heck she could carry Texas and Virgina and Tenn - but not as easily

I wonder if Missouri is "Southern"?

[gmudem]

15. Do you REALLY think Hillary could win Texas?

Please. No Democrat is winning Texas this time. Period. And I highly doubt she could win Missouri or Tennessee. Virginia is in play with Edwards or Obama but much less so with Clinton. Even Missouri's own Democratic women senator McCaskill endorsed Obama because she realizes he is much more electable than Clinton.

[NoodleyAppendage]

19. Agreed. Texas only swings with the Repukes.

They will turn out in Texas and Tennessee just to vote against her and not necessarily for their Repuke candidate.

[papau]

53. I had coffee on Sixth Street in Austin a few months back and was told those students were going to

if not make it happen, at least make possible..

Of course the folks I was meeting would make you think otherwise.

But please don't burst my bubble and tell me it is just not possible! :-)

[hogwyld]

61. Austin is one of the few blue islands in that state

The rest of the state as far as I can tell through my travels is that it is hard core red. Some people I know are far to the right of Attila the hun.

[papau]

65. No wonder I liked Austin - but you can keep the cotton growers and their trying to buy larger gov

handouts - it is good to be retired! :-)

[jasmine621]

59. If Dems get themselves together and come out and vote she could

win all but two.

[natrat]

55. please this is stupid-mccain/romney waxes either of them in the south

furthermore if the string pullers dont want hillary in it wil be close enough to hack---it's not a democracy anymore rather we are just hoping for charity in the form of a republican lite democrat installed---lets not be naive about this

[NMDemDist2]

2. 10-12 %???? hell none of them will win any state by that amount

strawman much?

[NoodleyAppendage]

8. O.K., fine. Name a Southern state she'll capture by 5-8% points.

10-12% can be had by Obama given the racial composition of the Southern states...Edwards might even have a chance in a state or two, though this is less likely. So, you are reinforcing my point that Hillary is the least likely of the field to do well in the South.

[NMDemDist2]

29. arkansas n/t

[NoodleyAppendage]

30. Really? How is she polling in Arkansas?

Aside from the whole Arkansas/Clinton connection are there any hard data to support that she will do well there?

J

[NMDemDist2]

39. yes, she beats every other GOPer except Hucklefuck and it's close

with him.

A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that Huckabee attracts 48% of the vote in Arkansas while Clinton earns 42%............Clinton also does better when matched against out-of-state GOP candidates. She leads Giuliani by 14 points in Arkansas (49% to 35%) and holds a similar lead over Mitt Romney (48% to 34%).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/arkansas_2008_presidential_election

[skipos]

3. Is New York a southern state? She would win that state for sure,

at least until Bloomberg gets in.

[HereSince1628]

6. It isn't as southern as South Dakota...

[SaveOurDemocracy]

31. lol

[Bright Eyes]

4. I'd very much like an answer to this, too.

So :kick:

[floridablue]

5. Obama would win more electorial votes than Clinton ??????

Tell me which states they will come from.

[AndyA]

7. What about Arkansas?

If Hillary can't win Arkansas, she's in pretty bad shape.

[NoodleyAppendage]

10. I don't know. How is she polling in Arkansas?

I seem to remember that she's not as popular as Bill in a state that has a longstanding love-hate relationship with the Clintons.

J

[AX10]

9. Arkansas, Florida...

possibly Virginia. The state is in play because it is changing demographically and the military is upset with the way the Iraq war has been handled.
Florida is in play too.

[NoodleyAppendage]

11. And your evidence? State polling data to support your contention?

I don't believe in faith-based predictions. Please provide your evidence that she will do well in those states. Internal or state polling data?

[alfredo]

14. Look at states with high Hispanic populations. Also she does well with

the old and women. Florida could be in play for her.

[NoodleyAppendage]

17. So we're going to rely upon Florida again for a general election win?

Florida has proven to be untrustworthy and given to fraud. It would be nice to have a candidate that could capture another Southern state in addition to Florida.

J

[alfredo]

34. It was an example of a state with a high Hispanic population. It's

not the only state with such a population.

These maps are 8 years out of date, but it will give some indication of the Hispanic population. Instead of looking at it as southern states, look at the slave states and you will see the Hispanics have a huge population in the Republican/slave states.

http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_hispanicpop.html



The yellow states were territories during the slave days, and there was no prohibition against slavery.



she also does well with the more frequent voters, the older voter.

[ileus]

13. all of them...RDS will bring America to our door.

[NoodleyAppendage]

28. RDS? n/t

J

[madrchsod]

16. none of them...

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. More than Kerry and Gore

No Democrat wins any Southern States comfortably anymore. Florida, Arkansas, Virginia, maybe West Virginia or one or two others could go to Hillary. The obvious trick for Dems is to pick up one or two Suthern states but the real trick is to become competitive enough in the region that the Republicans can't take easy wins there for granted, making them divert resourses there. Deans 50 state strategy in other words.

Then Democrats can go hard after states like Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

I have seen nothing to convince me that Obama would have an easier time of it than Clinton. Hillary has strong hispanic support which is a battle ground demographic group that Republicans always hope to make inroads with. Not against Clinton.

[CreekDog]

20. Hawaii

[Norwood]

21. Probably none

[NoodleyAppendage]

22. So, how can she win the general election then?

We need at least one Southern state if recent general election trends hold.

[Norwood]

32. She wont win the general if she gets the nod

A lot of people here underestimate just how disliked around the country she really is.

[karlrschneider]

41. The same problem applies to Obama, unfortunately.

...

[Norwood]

45. I agree,although I think he has a slightly better shot in the general

I'm not supporting either of them in the primary

[karlrschneider]

47. A lot of people apparently hate HRC for reasons having nothing to do with her gender

or certainly her ethnicity whereas Obama faces a different kind of prejudice (sometimes they overlap, of course)...

[CTyankee]

43. Maybe we should be looking at crossover or open primary states now to read the tea leaves.

We have to see how folks are voting in those primaries to get some idea of what would happen in the general. We have neverhad a woman candidate with a real shot at winning before. We might be in for some interesting surprises. Nobody can really say until a lot more in depth polling goes on as the campaign season progresses.

I think HRC's people have taken a peek or two at polls, doncha think Noodley?

[NoodleyAppendage]

60. They know from their polls that she has high negatives and can only pull 50% male vote.

Lust for power typically trumps logic and hubris. Their internal polling is not good...why do you think they were sweating it so hard in NH?

Unless we are looking at a gender-based vote in the general with all females voting for Hillary, then I do not think there is a scenario that gives her the general comfortably.

J

[CTyankee]

66. What is going to be interesting, if she gets the nomination, will be the Independent

voters who now seem to favor Obama. I can see where the indie men who won't vote for HRC might go to McCain (if he is indeed the Repub nominee). But even that's dicey. The antiwar indie man won't be too enchanted with McCain's support for the Iraq War, plus the Republicans have, for all extents and purposes, broken the bank of the U.S. economy, which may be somewhat, er, irritating to them!

[RiverStone]

23. Great question

I also can't fathom the logic of Hillary supporters - my circle of Dem friends see's nothing but a probable loss in the GE if she is our nominee.

Look how divisive she is on DEMOCRATIC underground alone. Imagine it on a national scene. The number of Dems who refuse to vote for her are higher than any other candidate (respectively) of either party. How can such a polarizing candidate unite the country, much less our own party???

Obama or Edwards would do far better!!!

Don't let anyone off the hook Noodley; I have yet to see a verifiable answer to your question!

[NoodleyAppendage]

25. All I've gotten so far are "faith-based predictions" that she will do well.

Those that think she will do well in Texas or Tennessee are smokin' something. Both of those states are robustly Red.

J

[Perry Logan]

24. A dog turd could beat the Republicans in 2008. The only people who don't know this are DUers.

[NoodleyAppendage]

26. Please point to NATIONAL polling data to support your contention; otherwise, cheerlead elsewhere.

While I wish you were correct the NATIONAL polls do not support your statement. Hillary is the least likely of the Dem candidates to do well in the general according to numerous national (and reputable) polls.

J

[Elspeth]

33. I have not yet seen any poll pitting any GOP candidate against a dog turd

It would be quite interesting, I'm sure, but I, as yet, have not seen one.

[Perry Logan]

38. I became excited and resorted to hyperbole. But I'm calm now.

[Elspeth]

42. If you do find such a poll, please post it.

This way, any interested DUers could send much needed dollars to Dog Turd.

[Perry Logan]

37. And here I thought this was just the place to cheerlead for Democrats!

Surveys Show House Dems Maintain "Nearly Landslide Leads" Heading Into '08 Elections

Despite growing disapproval of Congress, Democratic House candidates -- both incumbents and challengers -- are steadily gaining ground for a 2008 election likely to be a repeat of 2006, according to two surveys (here and here) by Democracy Corps.

The surveys dispute the hardening conventional wisdom that the failure of Democrats to force the start of withdrawal from Iraq has turned voters against both parties. The notion that the public sees Democrats and Republicans as "equal offenders...completely misreads the current moment," according to Democracy Corps.

Instead, the authors of an accompanying memo -- Stan Greenberg, James Carville and Ana Iparraguirre -- contend that "Democrats are maintaining stable and nearly landslide leads in both the race for President as measured by generic performance (51-41) and the named ballot for Congress (52-42 percent)."
In a targeted survey of the 70 congressional districts most likely to be competitive in 2008 (half with Democratic incumbents, the other half with Republicans in office), Democracy Corps found that Democratic incumbents hold a solid 52-40 lead on average. In contrast, the Republicans are in trouble: when voters are asked whom they would choose between the named GOP incumbent and an unnamed (generic) Democrat, the Republicans are behind on average 44-49.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/07/31/surveys-show-house-dems-m_n_58592.html

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/analyses/Democracy_Corps_July_31_2007_Memo.pdf
http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_July_25-29_2007_Battleground_Survey.pdf


Republican Outlook Dims for '08
The race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination has become wide open, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows. But the value of winning it has fallen sharply.

The survey shows that without formally entering the race, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has risen to second place in the Republican field. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to leak support, but leads the pack with 29% to Mr. Thompson's 20%, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has pulled even with Sen. John McCain at 14%.

Of greater concern for Republicans generally, however, is the party's weak state heading into the 2008 election. By 52% to 31%, Americans say they want Democrats to win the presidency next year.
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB118177312675434460-lMyQjAxMDE3ODExNDcxNzQzWj.html

[Ravy]

27. I woudn't be surprised at Virginia. nt

[OKNancy]

35. Who cares. We don't need the south.. not one of them

The whole premise of your post is WRONG. We don't need a southern state to win

All the Democrat has to do is win the Gore states plus one medium purple state or two smaller ones.
That list would include
Arkansas, New Hampshire, Colorado, Arizona ( unless it's McCain), Missouri, Nevada.
(just Colorado would actually do it)

http://www.270towin.com/

[B Calm]

36. Maybe Texas

[NoodleyAppendage]

52. Texas? What are you smoking? n/t

j

[karlrschneider]

40. Jalisco

...

[AZBlue]

44. Possibly VA.

[MasonJar]

46. She should win Kentucky now that the dems are back in control of

the state house. We are hoping even Mitch may go down; it is our best chance in years. A lot of Southern states have a large black contingent which will vote for any dem nominee, if we can just keep them from being disenfranchised. Florida would have gone dem in 2000 and 2004 if Jeb had not been the slimy governor.

[BadgerLaw2010]

48. Arkansas. No Dem is winning any other Southern state "comfortably"

How would they? This may surprise you, but Dems are outnumbered in the South.

[Mutineer]

49. None.

Zero. Zip. Zilch. Probably same story with Obama though. Or any Dem for that matter.

[WillowTree]

50. Ummmmm....I believe Louisiana is in the South.

[NoodleyAppendage]

51. Republican governor now and most of the Dem block in NOLA is reduced. No dice.

LA is not going to swing towards Clinton.

J

[Iceburg]

54. Florida, Arkansas, New Mexico /nt

[NoodleyAppendage]

56. New Mexico is NOT a Southern state. n/t

n

[Geek_Girl]

57. Maybe FL and Arkansas

Maybe

[NoodleyAppendage]

58. That's not very comforting. We need a candidate that provides a bit more certainty, don't you think

N/T

[nealmhughes]

62. Tennessee, judging from the Harold Ford, Jr. election is up in the air. The same for Alabama from

its gubernatiorial last cycle. Historically, in the past few decades these states have been "too close for comfort" as to describe them as simply "red" states. One must account for the extreme regionalism in each of the southern states: they are not monolithic by any means, not like say R.I. where the split is between Providence and its suburbs and the rest of the state, or Nebraska, where there are only two real cities: Omaha and Lincoln and then the countryside.

Tennessee, by its own design, has there "Grand Divisions," the West, Middle and East, hence the three stars in the flag. Memphis city is solidly Democratic, and so is the city of Nashville, the two main population centers. East Tennessee is solidly Republican, and then one actually has plurality in Middle Tennessee moreso than most of the rest of the state, and West Tennessee can be pretty redneck lily white Republican in the sticks, but there are areas of East Tennessee where FDR is still worshipped.

Alabama is solidly Democratic in the NW and the city of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. It is solidly Republican in most of the Huntsville new suburbs like Madison and Bham, like Shelby County, and Mobile County is pretty much up for grabs on racial/economic divides. The Black Belt, from south of Tuscaloosa on towards Montgomery will be solid Blue, but Montgomery city will be Democratic, but the county and its suburbs Republican.

And there will be pockets where one precinct will not follow tradition and have developed their own interest politics.

Race is not nearly so divisive nowadays in Alabama and Tennessee as it once was. Just funeral homes, churches, and state universities! There have been three generations of black and white southerners going to school together and working side by side now, and things are vastly different from my childhood when George Wallace was first governor and one city school was not desegregated until 1967, and in North Alabama, at that!

I would not put a cent on anything happening in the 2008 election in the South or elsewhere in the US. A lot can happen before November. . .

[NoodleyAppendage]

64. Ennttt...I grew up in Memphis and it is not solidly Democratic.

The bulk of the population in Shelby County live outside the city limits in Germantown, Cordova, Bartlett, and other suburb/bedroom communities. These suburbs reflect the "white flight" that started in the early 70s in response to growing crime and racist reaction to school busing. The largest of the mega-churches is in Cordova and Germantown is almost uniformly Repuke oriented. West Tennessee is becoming more like East Tennessee in their voting habits for similar reasons...racism. You mentioned Harold Ford, Jr....remember what brought him down? A little racist TV ad that suggested he was involved in "race mixing". This should be a clue as to the constituency the Repukes were appealing to...not to vote for their guy, but to vote against the black guy.

J

[Individualist]

67. Voted for Torture Ford was defeated in Tennessee

[Nedsdag]

63. How about....

None.

[Individualist]

68. None.

[Ganja Ninja]

69. By the time we get to November we could be mired in a depression.

Take a look around at what's happening. The crap is hitting the fan. The GOP is going to get their asses kicked in the next election. Hillary could sweep the GOP in the south if everything goes to shit as it looks like it might. People did well under the Clinton's and people will be reminded of that in the campaign as they watch the country going down the toilet. Don't bet against Hillary in the general election.