HELP NEEDED to clarify actual delegate/superdelegate numbers

[FlyingSquirrel]

I keep hearing the number 2,025 being bandied about regarding the number of combined delegates/superdelegates needed for the Democratic nomination.

The sources I've been mainly using to try and get the true picture are:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

and

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

Both agree that the number of superdelegates is 796. Wikipedia states that the number of delegates up for grabs is 3,253 (not counting Michigan and Florida).

Now here's my problem. Wikipedia has two columns in bold. One is "Pledged delegates", and one is "Voting delegation size". Between the two is a third column, "Unpledged delegates". I'm assuming this refers to superdelegates, since the total is close to 796. However it's not exactly 796, it's 847. So that's the first discrepancy I'm wondering about.

When I total up all the "Pledged delegates" I get 3,199 - not 3,253. The difference, 54 delegates, I'm guessing could be the "Unpledged delegates" from Michigan and Florida, which would mean that the DNC has decided to allow Unpledged delegates from Michigan and Florida to be seated at the Convention. Again I'm assuming that these are superdelegates.

If all of the above is true, then the actual number of pledged delegates up for grabs among the states etc. should be 3,199 and the superdelegates should be 847, for a total of 4,046 of which a candidate would need 2,024. But I keep hearing that the number of superdelegates is 796, so in that case a candidate should need 50% + 1 of (3,199+796), or 1,998 total delegates.

That extra 54 is messing me up. It kinda seems like they are saying the "unpledged delegates" from Michigan and Florida are not superdelegates - (perhaps they are a category all their own?), while the "unpledged delegates" from all the other states ARE superdelegates. In which case there are 3 unaccounted-for superdelegates (847-54=793)

Anyone even geekier than me wanna give it a shot?

[aquart]

1. I think they'd have to be a new category.

Unless we've done this before? Punished states? (Ballsy thing to do, btw.)

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. Well I'm just gonna go on that theory unless someone says otherwise.

So that means 3,199 pledged delegates are up for grabs, plus 796 superdelegates, plus 54 "unpledged delegates" from MI and FL. Total of 4,049 of which 2,025 are needed to win.

[NastyRiffraff]

2. I'm not NEARLY as geeky as you...those numbers make my head hurt, but..

See if this will help:

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/convention-delegates-not-bound-to.html

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Ya, that's the same site I listed above... it still doesn't help me.

'Cause they list the superdelegates from MI and FL in red and say that they currently don't count toward the total. But if that's the case then Wikipedia is still off by 54.

I guess it will only matter if things stay close.

[msn]

8. its complicated...

Matt here from 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. First, don't trust Wikipedia when it comes to these numbers. No one with the right knowledge has cleaned up the articles. Here's what is correct:

796 is the number of superdelegates without FL and MI. This includes 720 unpledged PLEO's (Party leaders and Elected Officials), the names on our website, and 76 add-ons, unpledged delegates, who are picked by the states. Then add 3253 pledged delegates for a total of 4049, again, without FL and MI.

FL and MI have 53 unpledged PLEOs But of course, if you include MI and FL, you also need to include their pledged delegates, 128 for Michigan (Clinton 73, Uncommitted 55), and 185 for Florida.

Hope this helps. Sounds like I should post this on the blog!

[msn]

9. source for the numbers

The GreenPapers web site is all over this stuff.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-Del.phtml
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-Alloc.phtml

[SaveOurDemocracy]

11. Thanks Matt ...

:hi:

[CK_John]

4. I was under the impression MI and Fl had more delegates than 54, maybe

because the 2 states were offered 1/2 their delegates if they could show they did not go along with the move to an earlier primary date.

I know the Scorecard site makes no mention of these 54 delegates in their foot notes.

They do have an other category for Democrats in American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and living abroad. I think this may be your 54.

<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D>

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. Nope, I have those categories included.

MI and FL have a lot more than 54 delegates, they have 313 Pledged delegates and 54 "Unpledged" or Superdelegates (I'm still trying to see if they are the same thing).

[CK_John]

7. Well the 54 unpledged are the superdelegates for MI and Fl they would probably still get to vote at

the convention(some heavy hitters) and the 313 pledged delegates are probably not included in the 3253 number.

I would look at the 2004 numbers the only changes should be in the sd for the seats we picked up or lost in the House and Senate.

[msn]

10. Don't look at 2004

Formulas have changed. For example, states got bonus delegates for having their primaries late in the season.

[CK_John]

12. Then I guess it's time to go to the source the DNC for those who really need to know. To me each of

candidates spend a lot of time and effort on these things. They are using the numbers they need and if they are not they should be fired.

[msn]

13. Even the DNC site has problems

You can check out the Call to the Convention here: http://www.demconvention.com/a/2007/03/how_to_become_a.html

and a state-by-state map here: http://www.demconvention.com/faq.html

For example, both places say Texas has 12 Democratic congressmen, but I count 13. I'm working to track down the discrepancies, so I would expect the numbers to change by a few delegates up or down before the convention.

[FlyingSquirrel]

14. Well it's nice to know I'm not the only one confused.

Thanks for the info - I guess I'll stop using Wikipedia for a source on this.